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petra_r
Community Member

Coronavirus

So, today this happens.

 

not so funny.jpg

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AndreaG
Moderator
Moderator

Hi all,

 

This thread has been closed from further replies due to its size. We understand this topic is still ongoing and affecting our Community members. Please, feel free to start a new thread to continue discussing the latest news around the pandemic.

 

~Andrea
Upwork

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petra_r
Community Member

OK, Italia numbers are out and I was so hoping the daily increase would continue to go down. No such luck, up slightly at 5,249 new cases (still lower than any day since the 18th except for yesterday.) 

 

Sadly, 743 people died in 24 hours, only very slightly below the worst ever day. So again someone in Italy dies from it every less than 2 minutes. At this point, more than twice as many people died in little Italy with 60 or so Million than in all of China.

 

German new cases are down from yesterday but deaths are at their highest ever level. I have played with different graphs and have a suspicion that the Germans aren't actually really dying that much less, they just take longer to die (are being kept alive longer) 


USA is looking shocking, Spain, daily cases down a bit from yesterday. Huge jump in both new cases and deaths in the UK too. Their lockdown (such as is) didn't come a day too early.

 

Worldwide it took months to get to the first 100,000 cases, less than 2 weeks to get to 200k cases, and just 7 days to double to $ 400k cases. It will be above half a million in days.

 

 

 

 


Petra R wrote:


USA is looking shocking, Spain, daily cases down a bit from yesterday. Huge jump in both new cases and deaths in the UK too. Their lockdown (such as is) didn't come a day too early.


I think that's a polite way of saying that it came days too late! 

 

We managed to get a delivery from the supermarket yesterday. The driver said they couldn't make as many deliveries as usual last week because people were ordering such ridiculous quantities that they could only fit 10 orders in the van at a time. They've imposed limits now. We just ordered our usual week's shopping. 

 

We stood at the top of the stairs to our first floor flat while the driver left our order at the bottom of the stairs.  It felt strange having a conversation at that distance. 

 

As we have our shopping delivered loose, to save on plastic bags,  I put out two laundry baskets for the driver to put the shopping in. The two baskets were in a stack,  and I didn't notice that the bottom one had a pair of used underwear in it!


Richard W wrote: I think that's a polite way of saying that it came days too late! 

 


trying to be diplomatic 🙂

 


Richard W wrote:

I put out two laundry baskets for the driver to put the shopping in. The two baskets were in a stack,  and I didn't notice that the bottom one had a pair of used underwear in it!

giggles.gif

Petra, yesterday I heard on the radio that here in France, the number of deaths only included people dying in hospitals. We too have shocking number of deaths in retirement homes. Just heard the figures on the radio, in one case 13 people, in two cases 16 people.

 

Also, I've heard that out of the lack of tests available, we had no idea of the real number of people infected. While the figures in Germany are said to be more reliable because tests are more widely done.


Luce N wrote:

Petra, yesterday I heard on the radio that here in France, the number of deaths only included people dying in hospitals. We too have shocking number of deaths in retirement homes. Just heard the figures on the radio, in one case 13 people, in two cases 16 people.


Wow, is that true? It is be pretty ridiculous if it is... 

 


Luce N wrote:

Also, I've heard that out of the lack of tests available, we had no idea of the real number of people infected. While the figures in Germany are said to be more reliable because tests are more widely done.


I think the actual numbers are off, and we all know that they are, I am not actually so much looking at the numbers themselves, I'm looking for trends and curves and trajectories. As long as the level of testing within each country remains reasonably consistent, the trajectories are reasonable best estimates.

 

 


Petra R wrote:

Luce N wrote:

Petra, yesterday I heard on the radio that here in France, the number of deaths only included people dying in hospitals. We too have shocking number of deaths in retirement homes. Just heard the figures on the radio, in one case 13 people, in two cases 16 people.


Wow, is that true? It is be pretty ridiculous if it is... 

Many things are pretty ridiculous in France. For example, during the SARS crises the state had made stocks of masks. Then this policy was declared to be too expensive. France just decided to do without the stock. It was deemed to be easier to buy masks from China ! Right now, many people working in retirement homes have no masks and no sufficient protection. As there are not enough tests to test everybody, they are probably just carrying the infection from one elderly person to another. It's a mess.


Petra R wrote:



Luce, Thanks for sharing that! Very interesting! 

 

I have cash in my handbag that's been there for ages and more my mother sent me (bless her) in a care packet with German (sweet) mustard and goodies like that, and it's totally worthless as I can't use it anywhere (not that I've BEEN anywhere since January!)

 

Not sure I'll know what do do in a real shop when this is over...


I was sure you'd like to get news from the world! Today, on the radio, this French writer explained how when he was 25 he had decided to stay in his apartment for a whole year to see what would happen.  This made me think about you... However, at the time, there was no Internet and he had decided not to even have a radio. He just spent hours daydreaming, until one day he decided to write. He didn't say anything about how he got food, how he paid the rent. Who knows, maybe he was living with his parents and his Mum would bring him food?


Luce N wrote:

I didn't have the choice, I had to go shopping today. I had tried to use drive shopping for the first time in my life, but could not get connected to the site. Yesterday, in preparation for this event, I bought some gloves at the pharmacy. I was thankful to get a box, as there is a shortage of gloves too.

 

First, I went to Carrefour. Not many cars in the parking lot, and a strange lack of carts. Then came a big surprise: they had organised a door to enter the shopping center and another to exit. They had also organised a sort of waiting line with carts (that's where they were!) that were upside down. A bit like a waiting line at a Disney attraction park, it was a winding line. At the door, someone was in charge of letting people in. I guess the guard at the exit would tell him when customers had left the shopping center, and to let some others in. My husband was not allowed in, only 1 customer at a time. The only exception was 1 adult with 1 kid.

 

The aisles were half empty. No stupid music to make people relax and stay longer than needed. Once in a while, a message to remind people at the check out to wait in line using the marks on the floor to  keep away from other customers.

 

Several items on my shopping list were missing : no eggs (apparently, they are very popular in France right now), no chicken, no lemon, no avocado. My usual brand of toilet paper was available (it's made of recycled paper).

 

At the check-out counter, staff was protected from customers with large window. We were asked to pay by card if possible.

 

I'm so thankful that things were organised, to make this experience bearable!


Not sure your age or if stores there are doing this, but we have "senior hours" at most groceries and pharmacies for the first hour at least one day a week so seniors (60+) can get in and get what they need while encountering fewer people and hopefully finding the shelves better stocked than they might be later in the day.


Kelly B wrote:


Not sure your age or if stores there are doing this, but we have "senior hours" at most groceries and pharmacies for the first hour at least one day a week so seniors (60+) can get in and get what they need while encountering fewer people and hopefully finding the shelves better stocked than they might be later in the day.

 


Well, Carrefour has come up with a weird idea: from 8 to 8.30, the store is opened for care givers, firefighters and over 65 citizens. As senior people are supposed to be the most at risk, I find it strange to let them mix with nurses and doctors, who are the most likely to have been infected.

 

To me, this is total nonsense!

 

I got to the store round 9 a.m. The line was reasonable, less than 10 people, but it soon increased.

"Volveremos a juntarnos, volveremos a brindar" - translates to "We will toast again".  A Hymn of Hope by Lucia Gil.  Written and recorded in the last few days. And absolutely beautiful.

Sound up ...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgPeD9YrRA0&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR0e2UzLAYk_lwvP5ssxxwjeAD8JC_...

 

 


Wendy C wrote:

 

 


Beautiful! 

petra_r
Community Member

Here come this morning's curves 🙂

 

25th March cases.png

deaths 25 March.png

kbadeau
Community Member

Petra I see a smiley face but I don't see numbers or an explanation... are new cases down again I hope I hope?

Sending love, hugs, and prayers to all.

 

Please take care and be safe! 

petra_r
Community Member


Kelly B wrote:

Petra I see a smiley face but I don't see numbers or an explanation... are new cases down again I hope I hope?


The smiley face was about the charts this morning, and really just a smiley face as making the charts over my first coffee has become a ritual, as has waiting for the Italian numbers in the evening.

 

So. Very slight decrease of new cases again in Italy. (I take any decrease as a sign of hope right now) 5,210 new cases and in the last 24 hours 683 people died, which is considerably less than yesterday.

 

I am hoping this is a sign that the tide is turning and we are heaading towards the light at the end of the still very long tunnel.


Spain's new cases and deaths still rising... France's numbers aren't in yet, and USA obviously nowhere near final but looking pretty shocking.

 

If Germany's figures are final, they are also encouraging but they seem to report things throughout the day rather than all in one whoosh at the end of the day.

 

Chart again in the (my) morning.

 

kbadeau
Community Member

U.S. is just so difficult to predict. NYC is obviously going to be seriously concerning while other areas might be much more fortunate. Even state of AZ is going to skew higher because of Maricopa County so I try to find local news instead.

 

But if we only moderately lockdown, so we don't see the huge spike, does that mean we have to stay this locked down a lot longer? Because that will be much harder to achieve I think.

petra_r
Community Member


Kelly B wrote:

But if we only moderately lockdown, so we don't see the huge spike, does that mean we have to stay this locked down a lot longer? Because that will be much harder to achieve I think.


Moderately locking down you might as well not bother. I've been "locked down" since January....

 

Germany is paying freelancers hit by CV very generous payouts if they lost business due to CV, generally up to € 2000 a month and give interest free loans if that is not enough.

 

My best friend lost out on around € 3000 because the university she freelances for (teaching and running exams on a freelance basis) shut down, will get that back.

Some encouraging stats courtesy of City Mapper, which shows activity levels for various cities. If you compare yesterday's percentages to those from two weeks ago, it looks like people are finally starting to get the message that they should stay in their homes. (Though I don't know why the percentages for places like Toronto and Sydney are still so high?)

 

https://citymapper.com/cmi?fbclid=IwAR13iwsDRkQgt8qouIuQc7mMRksX3vqjHHX_xawNH6uObDIAezGGO1zM1xE 


Christine A wrote:

Some encouraging stats courtesy of City Mapper, which shows activity levels for various cities. If you compare yesterday's percentages to those from two weeks ago, it looks like people are finally starting to get the message 


Great link!! I am glad people are starting to get the message. And not a day too soon! It works, too. 

 

Italy's total new cases (which is what they report every evening) is down for the 4rth day. "Total new cases means newly identified infections minus new deaths minus newly recovered people. 

I expect the lockdown will continue until more people recover (or die) than get infected.

 

Today's charts:

 

cases 26th.pngdeaths 26 3.png

 

We've had crazy weather too. Snow in late March and it's been very cold and rainy and stormy. This morning I woke up at 5.30 and there was no power. I checked for networks on the iPad (if it sees other networks, it's only my power that's out, so I have to venture outside to the big fusebox, if it sees no networks, there is no power anywhere. 

 

So: No coffee, hot water, no heating, no light, no Internet, no TV and my vaping device ran out of power an hour later. Power came back at 8.30 but it was not comfortable, especially not knowing what would happen and when it would come back.

 


Petra R wrote:

 

So: No coffee, hot water, no heating, no light, no Internet, no TV and my vaping device ran out of power an hour later. Power came back at 8.30 but it was not comfortable, especially not knowing what would happen and when it would come back.

 


Sorry to hear about that! I was wondering why you were so silent! Have a nice day, Petra!


Petra R wrote:

We've had crazy weather too. Snow in late March and it's been very cold and rainy and stormy. This morning I woke up at 5.30 and there was no power. I checked for networks on the iPad (if it sees other networks, it's only my power that's out, so I have to venture outside to the big fusebox, if it sees no networks, there is no power anywhere. 

 

So: No coffee, hot water, no heating, no light, no Internet, no TV and my vaping device ran out of power an hour later. Power came back at 8.30 but it was not comfortable, especially not knowing what would happen and when it would come back.

 


Wow. Virus, earthquakes, power outages - maybe watch out for that asteroid that's about to hit you?

 

It's snowing here, too (though not unusual for this time of year). If I lose access to coffee and the Internet, I don't what I'll do!

 

 


Christine A wrote:

Wow. Virus, earthquakes, power outages - maybe watch out for that asteroid that's about to hit you?

 

It's snowing here, too (though not unusual for this time of year). If I lose access to coffee and the Internet, I don't what I'll do!


I've been perfectly zen about the whole thing so far, but I have to admit it was dark, it was cold, I had no coffee, I couldn't vape, it was incredibly unpleasant. 

 

And....things are happening in good old SA as well. Reported cases 907 (the numbers are much higher but our gov not going to admit that yet BECAUSE... country will be in lockdown as from 12 pm tonight. Police services and the army deployed across the country... People can't withdraw money anywhere in my area. All machines empty. Food sold out in stores - although they say they WILL restock. You will only be allowed to go to buy groceries or need urgent medical attention. Other than that..nada. On the down side...I have a male puppy in the house and a female that is not 'fixed' yet (various reasons, long story). Puppy is too young to be fixed yet...but dreading if and when the female goes on heat and what the little lighter might end up trying. Last thing I want or need is puppies. At least I have some anti-sexy spray for the female. Oh...and @Petra - the chicken named after you is the prettiest - white with grey flecks. Will post photo when able.


Irene B wrote:

And....things are happening in good old SA as well. Reported cases 907 (the numbers are much higher but our gov not going to admit that yet BECAUSE... country will be in lockdown as from 12 pm tonight. Police services and the army deployed across the country... People can't withdraw money anywhere in my area. All machines empty. 


Ironically, I have not (had a chance to) used used cash since early January...

 


Irene B wrote:

 Oh...and @Petra - the chicken named after you is the prettiest - white with grey flecks. Will post photo when able.


I can't wait. Please don't let the fox get her or anything.... I'd hate to see a post "Sadly Petra was killed last night!"

 

New Italy numbers are out, more new cases than yesterday but significately less new deaths:  6153 new cases and 662 new deaths. I read a paper which showed that cold weather is traditionally followed with a rise in new cases, and it has been terribly cold here.

 

USA, Spain and Germany all have more new cases than Italy...

 

Back to Shopping: My quest to not have to go near a shop continues. My vitamins still come from the tangerine tree. They are perfect now but will start being over-ripe in a couple of weeks or less. The online supermarket I was using no longer offers delivery slots for my area (rural and South) but I found family businesses which still do. My meat and vegetable needs are covered.

 

I'll get a delivery from this shop (scroll around the pic for random Italian person sitting in the sun lol, you can also go into the shop and look around!) which has been in the same family for generations next week.

I get to eat lovely handmade food, a family business gets to keep going. 

Win-Win

 

mtngigi
Community Member

"My vitamins still come from the tangerine tree. They are perfect now but will start being over-ripe in a couple of weeks or less"

 

Petra ... do you have sugar? Google "tangerine marmalade" ... this one is from Martha Stewart.

 

Tangerine Marmalade.png

lysis10
Community Member

The gyms closed here until April 6. I'm so pissed right now. 3 months of gains. Probably 3lbs of muscle gained. I'm going to rage so friggin hard if I have to reset and start over. My gains were amazing. I refuse to turn into the standard house frau that plague everywhere letting themselves go.

 

SO angry rn.


Jennifer M wrote:

The gyms closed here until April 6. I'm so pissed right now. 3 months of gains. Probably 3lbs of muscle gained. I'm going to rage so friggin hard if I have to reset and start over. My gains were amazing. I refuse to turn into the standard house frau that plague everywhere letting themselves go.

 

SO angry rn.


Gyms closed two weeks ago here...and no fitness equipment to be found at Target or online.... There are tons of great apps etc, but I feel your pain, so much...it's full on withdrawal. 


Irene B wrote:

And....things are happening in good old SA as well. Reported cases 907 (the numbers are much higher but our gov not going to admit that yet BECAUSE... country will be in lockdown as from 12 pm tonight. Police services and the army deployed across the country... People can't withdraw money anywhere in my area. All machines empty. Food sold out in stores - although they say they WILL restock. You will only be allowed to go to buy groceries or need urgent medical attention. Other than that..nada. On the down side...I have a male puppy in the house and a female that is not 'fixed' yet (various reasons, long story). Puppy is too young to be fixed yet...but dreading if and when the female goes on heat and what the little lighter might end up trying. Last thing I want or need is puppies. At least I have some anti-sexy spray for the female. Oh...and @Petra - the chicken named after you is the prettiest - white with grey flecks. Will post photo when able.

 

 

==============

Out in the sticks where I live the shops are still fully stocked, and all ATM's still have money in them.

 

However, we can only shop between 4AM and 9AM in the morning, and again from 4PM to 8PM in the afternoon/evening, and then you have to wait your turn if 50 people are in the shop already. Walking the dog outside of your own yard is prohibited, as is buying alcohol and tobacco products for the duration of the lockdown. The sale of all vaping products is banned, and you need a police-issued permit to travel even if you are classified as "emergency personnel".

I just hope all of this (and much else, besides) is enough to slow the rate of infctions, but given the fact that hundreds of thouands of people have fled to their traditional homesteads, I don't have much hope that we won't experience a cataclysmic infection rate. 


 

petra_r
Community Member

Today's charts...  Italy is no longer leading in terms of number of cases.

When I said at the start of this thread that people need to watch the Italian curve because that is where other countries are heading, people didn't believe me. Yet, here we are.

 

cases 27 March.pngdeaths 27 March.png

petra_r
Community Member

And let's just take a look at what happens when a country tests aggressively, isolates confirmed cases and their contacts decisively, and still keeps things (the economy) going reasonably smoothly (in comparison)

 

I added in South Korea, who crossed the "75+ confirmed cases - day one" line a day before Italy

 

with South Korea.png

 

 

 

 

I received a call from my my GP on Wednesday. Apparently he had no appointments on Wednesday afternoon and used it to reach out to some patients that need to come in for regular check-ups. I then had to go to the hospital for some bloodtest. The doctors are not allowed to do them at them moment but have to send everybody to the hospital. They only asked if I had been to a risk region before letting me in. Noone used protective equipment after I said I did not leave Norway. Anyway, my test (No CV test!) were fine and my GP call the next morning to tell me I'll be on sickleave two days just to make sure I did not catch something while at the hospital.

He told me that the low numbers in Norway are due to the lack of testing. The only people being tested are people working in healthcare or those that are about to be hospitalized. My GP only allows people with an appointment to come into his practice because he has several patience his is sure are infected but so far all tests he had requested had been denied. He has special hours for these patience now.


Jennifer R wrote:

I received a call from my my GP on Wednesday. Apparently he had no appointments on Wednesday afternoon and used it to reach out to some patients that need to come in for regular check-ups. I then had to go to the hospital for some bloodtest. The doctors are not allowed to do them at them moment but have to send everybody to the hospital. They only asked if I had been to a risk region before letting me in. Noone used protective equipment after I said I did not leave Norway. Anyway, my test (No CV test!) were fine and my GP call the next morning to tell me I'll be on sickleave two days just to make sure I did not catch something while at the hospital.

He told me that the low numbers in Norway are due to the lack of testing. The only people being tested are people working in healthcare or those that are about to be hospitalized. My GP only allows people with an appointment to come into his practice because he has several patience his is sure are infected but so far all tests he had requested had been denied. He has special hours for these patience now.


That's a strange story... particularly the part about being on sick leave for two days! I would feel like changing doctors....


Luce N wrote:

Jennifer R wrote:

I received a call from my my GP on Wednesday. Apparently he had no appointments on Wednesday afternoon and used it to reach out to some patients that need to come in for regular check-ups. I then had to go to the hospital for some bloodtest. The doctors are not allowed to do them at them moment but have to send everybody to the hospital. They only asked if I had been to a risk region before letting me in. Noone used protective equipment after I said I did not leave Norway. Anyway, my test (No CV test!) were fine and my GP call the next morning to tell me I'll be on sickleave two days just to make sure I did not catch something while at the hospital.

He told me that the low numbers in Norway are due to the lack of testing. The only people being tested are people working in healthcare or those that are about to be hospitalized. My GP only allows people with an appointment to come into his practice because he has several patience his is sure are infected but so far all tests he had requested had been denied. He has special hours for these patience now.


That's a strange story... particularly the part about being on sick leave for two days! I would feel like changing doctors....


People in Norway are canceling their appointments and only go when they are feeling really sick. So some GPs started to warn that people should not just cancelled but ask the doctor to call back. Sure, people that only need a new prescription should not waste precious time and my GP noticed that the 'regulars' that keep asking for sick leaves are not coming in at the moment. Most are probably on some kind of paid leave at the moment anyway.

As a freelancer in Norway, you get paid sick leave after day 16 unless you have signed a special insurrance. The state starts covering from day 17. Before it is employers or the freelancer as self-employee. Due to CV it is doen to 3 days.

The paid sick leave would have been great if I would have stayed at home today as well due to exhaustion. But after 4 days with the kid I need a break (or a nanny).

We did not get much time to prepare for the chickens before they arrived - we are on official lockdown as from today. So we have kept them in the old carport that we don't use (we chicken-proofed it in a hurry for safety reasons). We spent the last two days chicken-proofing the front garden and they were let out for the first time this afternoon. Taking photos has been a challenge because the are a little shy and still getting to know their new home. IDID manage to get this relatively OK of Ms Petra le Chick, though. The next step is building them a proper chicken coop inside the old carport. They will be safe, warm, and dry there with plenty of space outside to do their chick things. At 20 weeks, the girls are still a little too young to lay eggs, but I am sure we will have a few pretty soon. The cockerel, D*ck, is half their age but their exact size! I think he is going to be quite a handsome fellow once fully grown.

 

Ms Petra le ChickMs Petra le Chick

This photo, of course, does not do her justice - it does not show her lovely neck markings.


Irene B wrote:

 

Ms Petra le ChickMs Petra le Chick

This photo, of course, does not do her justice - it does not show her lovely neck markings.


Very sweet 🙂 You do understand that your front garden will not look anything like that in a few weeks with 5 chickens running riot?

petra_r
Community Member

OK, Italy update is out: The daily new cases have been hovering around the same ballpark with 5,909 new cases today. At least they don't seem to be increasing any longer so that's something. 

 

Sadly, the death count is brutal.  919 people died in 24 hours, the highest number ever by a big margin.

 

That is roughly one person died every minute and a half (just over)

But it seems the number of additional currently infected people has been going down for a while now (That being new cases minuy people who recovered that day minus people who died) - So that's a good thing.


Graphs as always tomorrow morning.

kbadeau
Community Member


Petra R wrote:

Irene B wrote:

 

Ms Petra le ChickMs Petra le Chick

This photo, of course, does not do her justice - it does not show her lovely neck markings.


Very sweet 🙂 You do understand that your front garden will not look anything like that in a few weeks with 5 chickens running riot?


My neighbor has chickens in her front yard and weeds outside her fence. I have had a ball visiting  and feeding them weeds through the fence. They love it!

petra_r
Community Member

This mornings curves.

 

What is really worrying is that the USA death curve has been parallel to Italy for a few days now. 

 

cases 28 March.pngdeaths 29 March.png

Yes, I know about the front garden. Luckily, there are old, established roses there and a large lemon tree. So long as they are ok, I am not too worried about the rest. I took out all the grass there a year ago and started an experimental vegetable garden which worked so well that I started using the same principle at the back, which is much larger. The front is relatively small, so when all this is over and the chickens go back to the farmer who gave/lent them to me, it will not be too much of a hassle to scatter some flower seeds and get a cottagy feel back out front. I got them for a steady supply of eggs. Four egg layers may not be much, but it is what the space I have can carry without HAVING to supplement their food (although I DO have a largish bag of feed in the garage for them in case but they seem to enjoy eating the grubs and African wild spinach called marogo I deliberately sowed throughout a few weeks ago more).

 

On a more serious note: Coronavirus as of this morning in South Africa

 

Infected people: 1,170

Deaths: 1

Recoveries: 31

Growth rate 28% per day


Irene B wrote:

Infected people: 1,170

Deaths: 1

Recoveries: 31

Growth rate 28% per day


What is the plan? It seems to be a very early point in time to go into total lockdown? 

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