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petra_r
Community Member

Coronavirus

So, today this happens.

 

not so funny.jpg

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AndreaG
Moderator
Moderator

Hi all,

 

This thread has been closed from further replies due to its size. We understand this topic is still ongoing and affecting our Community members. Please, feel free to start a new thread to continue discussing the latest news around the pandemic.

 

~Andrea
Upwork

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The last decision, confinement has been extended to 1 month (April 14)

 


Petra R wrote:

Ravindra B wrote:

India and Bagnladesh will probably have steeper curves than Italy.


... unless they arrest it NOW. In much the same way South Korea has done. Because it works.....

 

In the meantime, I can stop worrying about CV and worry about Earthquakes. Variety is the spice of life... Today's activity....


 

On another note, I wonder whether a Mensa-level intelligence is a help or hindrance in such a situation.

 

"Certa bonum certamen"


Petra R wrote:


Actually, I get "Why Italy" - lots of old people, people living in extended family groups so the people most likely to get infected (younger ones) are in constant contact with those likely to die (old people.) Now we are way, WAY beyond the capacity of the health system and if you get seriously ill, you've just about had it. Once a health system is beyond capacity, that's it. And that doesn't just mean the coronavirus. The numbers don't include the people who die because they can't be saved simply because there aren't any intensive care beds to save them because they are all taken up by CV patients. Doctors spend their days deciding who lives and who dies.

 

 


Christine A wrote:

Meanwhile at Puerto Vallarta airport, there's no room for social distancing as Canadians and Americans on spring break are running out of time to leave.

 


This is ridiculous... Those people should have stayed the hell at home.

 


I still don't get "why Italy" - lockdown has been in place for some time now, so why isn't the curve starting to flatten? And now earthquakes too? Petra, I don't know how you're getting through this - I'm nearly frantic with worry and I'm nowhere near any real problem areas (yet). 

 

But about Puerto Vallarta - it's easy to ignore the news when you're on holidays and everything appears to be normal. Ironically, **Edited for Community Guidelines** then, they had only 4 cases, but now it's spreading rapidly. It's also typical for multiple generations of one family to be living in close quarters, like Italy. And with no tourism industry, most people in the town that I left will have no source of income. The locals were all so nice to me while I was there, and I made several friends; I feel horrible and guilty that I could just airlift myself away from it all. 

 


Christine A wrote:


I still don't get "why Italy" - lockdown has been in place for some time now, so why isn't the curve starting to flatten?


Now this is my theory:

 

There were three main events. First, the universities closing so all the students went home all over the country. Then the bungled "isolate the North" leak sent another wave of people all over the country as they tried to get out of the North before things were closed down. A LOT of those 2 initial waves were likely infected.

Now we have 3 main groups: Young people who may be asymptomatic, running around having lots of fun doing fun things as young Italians do, then going home to their extended family, and starting to infect others who DID get ill. (parents who were still going to work and grandparents who may have gotten very ill or died) Essentially the kids and young people were the vectors.

Then we had the complete lockdown (well, as complete as it is) so we have now locked all those infected and often asymptomatic people up together with older vulnerable people, as so many families live in the same house, even if not the same household. The people who die on average die 14 days after they became infected.

They are now saying it may actually be another 2 weeks before we peak. Optimistic forecasts say a week to 10 days.

 

 


Christine A wrote:

Petra, I don't know how you're getting through this - I'm nearly frantic with worry and I'm nowhere near any real problem areas (yet). 

I am concerned, of course, I'd be an idiot if I wasn't, but I'm by nature not easily scared. I've spent my life taking more or less competently calculated risks, some major, some minor, some foolish... I'm still around and still in one piece, this, too, will pass.

 

Interestingly, new cases in Germany may have decreased for the second day running by the end of today (after a really scary jump on Friday) - Germany numbers update throughout the day.

 


Christine A wrote:
Ironically, Mexico should have closed its borders with the U.S. a couple of weeks ago (#buildthewall), they had only 4 cases, but now it's spreading rapidly. It's also typical for multiple generations of one family to be living in close quarters, like Italy. And with no tourism industry, most people in the town that I left will have no source of income. The locals were all so nice to me while I was there, and I made several friends; I feel horrible and guilty that I could just airlift myself away from it all. 

I totally understand, but ultimately, you need to look after yourself first-

Deleted as no longer relevant.


"Certa bonum certamen"

I'm so worried about the UK - they are NOT taking this seriously enough. I was just on Facebook and my feed is filled with photos of friends who are visiting their mothers for Mother's Day and taking them out for brunch!!!!


Christine A wrote:

I'm so worried about the UK - they are NOT taking this seriously enough. I was just on Facebook and my feed is filled with photos of friends who are visiting their mothers for Mother's Day and taking them out for brunch!!!!


My feed was a mixed bag of people urging others to self isolate and stuff like climbing Scottish mountains and campsides full of people having a grand old time..... 


Petra R wrote:

Christine A wrote:

I'm so worried about the UK - they are NOT taking this seriously enough. I was just on Facebook and my feed is filled with photos of friends who are visiting their mothers for Mother's Day and taking them out for brunch!!!!


My feed was a mixed bag of people urging others to self isolate and stuff like climbing Scottish mountains and campsides full of people having a grand old time..... 


A teacher friend also just posted a plea asking people to only send their kids to school if they absolutely have to. Schools are only supposed to be open to look after the children of key workers, but 40% of her students are still showing up. 😞

Today, New York state has the largest number of COVID-19 cases in the country, and now has more confirmed cases than France and South Korea at 15,000. 

 

The entire state is under a shutdown order.

 

The New York City area and surrounding boroughs have the highest number -- but cases are rapidly increasing throughout upstate NY where I am. 

 

We're still in the early stages and already the entire healthcare system is crashing.  Hospitals & health care workers throughout the country are overwhelmed and in danger because they're not receiving vital masks, gowns and other protective gear due to.... never mind, don't want to get my post removed. 


Stay safe, everyone! 

Petra, this is a chart published by the very official AFP (Agence France Presse). It doesn't look as nice as your charts, but I thought you might like to have a look...

 

Chart for Petra.jpg

 

 


Luce N wrote:

Petra, this is a chart published by the very official AFP (Agence France Presse). It doesn't look as nice as your charts, but I thought you might like to have a look...


Thanks, it's the same trajectory, just has a different starting point than mine, the numbers all come from the same place (The WHO)

 

USA numbers are through the roof and not final yet .... and a friend of mine in the US was tested yesterday (she clearly has it) and was told to expect the results in 3 to 5 days, so people who are now tested won't be counted for another 3 to 5 days...

 

So, Italy, slightly less brutal than previous days with 5,560 new cases and 651 people died in 24 hours. Whilst not great numbers, obviously, it is a smaller increase than previous days.

 

At least it now takes over 2 minutes before another Italian dies from it, rather than less than 2...

 

lizablau
Community Member

Even a small decrease is great news. 


Christine A wrote:

 


I still don't get "why Italy"

 


From what I rememeber reading, Italy was the first country in Europe who started massive testing.


Many if not the majority of countries are way behind testing. If your location shows a few or no confirmed cases it may be true or not ... if disclosed, look at the number of tests taken.


In some countries/areas not everyone who is suspected is also tested. Tests are limited, some hospitals might not even be ready to recognize symptoms if any ... if the person doesn't disclose that they were in an affected area or that they might have been in contact with someone suspected or confirmed, the doctors may not even take in consideration testing. This may no longer be the case in the following period as local transmission spreads.

 

If not tested for this new virus, many of those deaths would have just been associated to other health issues those persons had ... or people think it's just a regular flu/cold.

 

My thoughts are that maybe it didn't even start in China, maybe the chinese were just the first to discover this is a new "virus" and started testing. God knows for how long it's been around.


Claudia Z wrote:

Christine A wrote:

 


I still don't get "why Italy"

 


From what I rememeber reading, Italy was the first country in Europe who started massive testing.


Many if not the majority of countries are way behind testing. If your location shows a few or no confirmed cases it may be true or not ... if disclosed, look at the number of tests taken.


OMG you're exactly right
--> 20 days since first case appeared here in Morocco: only 634 are tested. till today 115 are active cases 4 dead 3 recovered. 

In some countries/areas not everyone who is suspected is also tested. Tests are limited, some hospitals might not even be ready to recognize symptoms if any ... if the person doesn't disclose that they were in an affected area or that they might have been in contact with someone suspected or confirmed, the doctors may not even take in consideration testing. This may no longer be the case in the following period as local transmission spreads.

--> everyone are asking the authorities to test great number of people as the suspected above thousands if not hundreds of thousands (after recent days events)

 

My thoughts are that maybe it didn't even start in China, maybe the chinese were just the first to discover this is a new "virus" and started testing. God knows for how long it's been around.

--> well, my dad catched the weirdest cold (between mid and end of January), we thought that it was regular flu, but it hit him hard, my wife and son got sick as well afterwards but not as much as him. he totally recovered by mid February. doctors said to him it was just flu. it was suspicious but I'm not sure, because first official case here in Morocco is dated March 2nd..


 now I'm taking regular statistics like Petra does as I don't have much to do (currently we are in a state of emergency, all cities were locked down etc...)

mtngigi
Community Member

In other news ...

 

https://www.10news.com/news/coronavirus/police-identify-teens-in-social-media-video-caught-coughing-...

 

I did some stupid things as a teenager, but these idiots take the cake.

petra_r
Community Member

Today's graph as of 6 am UTC

 

Europe's numbers show some slowing. USA out of control.

 

two weeks agotwo weeks ago

New Zealand is officially in lockdown, today after the amount of confirmed cases raised to 102 the alert level has been raised to 3 and on Wednesday is going up to 4 (I think the limitations are going to be similar to the Italian's).

It's weird but I feel relieved.


Petra R wrote:

Today's graph as of 6 am UTC

 

Europe's numbers show some slowing. USA out of control.


I find fascinating that doctors are leaving Cuba, China and Russia to go help Italy cope with the Coronavirus crisis. Before the change of government, lots of Cuban doctors were working in Brasil, but were sent away. I wonder if they will be allowed back in Brasil.

 

Due to a strange numerus clausus policy, we have been having shortages of doctors in France too, and for many years. Maybe we could get some help from the "red" countries too. That would be something!


Luce N wrote:

Petra R wrote:

Today's graph as of 6 am UTC

 

Europe's numbers show some slowing. USA out of control.


I find fascinating that doctors are leaving Cuba, China and Russia to go help Italy cope with the Coronavirus crisis. Before the change of government, lots of Cuban doctors where working in Brasil, but were sent away. I wonder if they will be allowed back in Brasil.

 

Due to a strange numerus clausus policy, we have been having shortages of doctors in France too, and for many years. Maybe we could get some help from the "red" countries too. That would be something!


Britain's NHS has been underfunded for many years and was already struggling before this crisis. Apparently they have around 1/2 the number of intensive care beds per person than Italy does. 


Jamie F wrote:


Britain's NHS has been underfunded for many years and was already struggling before this crisis. Apparently they have around 1/2 the number of intensive care beds per person than Italy does. 


The political implications of this crisis are huge, and the only thing I have to say to those in command who think public health is a luxury is : if you let the poor people get sick because you want to save money, the rich will not be safe as some diseases are easily transmitted....

A small rant: 

 

I notice there has been a surge in clients looking for ghostwriters to produce e-books on Covid-19. I think this is a disgraceful form of profiteering and Upwork should delist these jobs. Also the end result of these works will be a mishmash of misinformation of which too much is found on the internet. 

 

These documents will only serve to disseminate further panic and line the pockets of unscrupulous punters. 

 


Luce N wrote:

Jamie F wrote:


Britain's NHS has been underfunded for many years and was already struggling before this crisis. Apparently they have around 1/2 the number of intensive care beds per person than Italy does. 


The political implications of this crisis are huge, and the only thing I have to say to those in command who think public health is a luxury is : if you let the poor people get sick because you want to save money, the rich will not be safe as some diseases are easily transmitted....


This reminds me of a Facebook meme that I saw yesterday: The easiest way for a poor person to get tested, is to cough on a rich person and wait for their results.

ifdesus
Community Member

In Ukraine, the coronavirus is not so noticeable, although scientists have already found the vaccine, but until it is tested and tested, the virus can spread rapidly in the regions.


VOLODYMYR U wrote:

In Ukraine, the coronavirus is not so noticeable, although scientists have already found the vaccine, but until it is tested and tested, the virus can spread rapidly in the regions.


They have started testing possible vaccines but they have not yet confirmed they found one.

 

You should keep a close what on the situation around you and inform the people around you. "As of 10:00 on March 21, Ukraine had 41 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19, three of which were lethal. One patient recovered and was already discharged from the hospital. Fifteen new cases were confirmed in last 24 hours," the Ministry of Health of Ukraine reports.

These 41 are 73 this morning. You can rest assure that this number will increase during the day.

The most shocking news so far today:

Every 6 minutes someone dies in the Spanish capital Madrid of Corona.

Madrid has a population of 6.6 million people, ~10k are infected, 1092 deaths and has been locked down for 8 days. (Population density 14,000/sq mi)
New York: ~20 million people, 15,168 tested positive more than 9k in the city, 119 deaths, and has been locked down for 1 day. (Population density 27,751/sq mi)

 

The German district Heinsberg was one of the first ones to get hit after an infected couple was at a carnival party mid-February today there are more than 1000 people infected and 21 dead. (Population density 1,200/sq mi)

There may be just a glimmer of light at the end of the Italian tunnel.

 

For the second day in a row, new infections are down They were lower than they were in the last 5 days.

 

New deaths are also down somewhat, for the 3rd day running.

 

Far too early to think we're on our way down, but encouraging nonetheless.  Rest of the world not looking quite so great...

 


Petra R wrote:

There may be just a glimmer of light at the end of the Italian tunnel.

 

For the second day in a row, new infections are down They were lower than they were in the last 5 days.

 

New deaths are also down somewhat, for the 3rd day running.

 

Far too early to think we're on our way down, but encouraging nonetheless.  Rest of the world not looking quite so great...

 


I was watching a video that explained the "whens" and the "hows" of the infection's behavior.

According to him, here, if people behave well once and for all, this week we would reach the highest peak of the infection (the deaths would go more slowly behind) and from the following week, it would start to drop.

Perhaps Italy has finally reached the peak of infection.
Let's hope so Smiley Happy

Well..my country's (South Africa) president just declared a state of disaster - country in lockdown. Nobody to leave their homes for 21 days as from midnight on Thursday except those in certain n professions and industries. Food stores and pharmacies will stay open, but that is about it. 


Irene B wrote:

Well..my country's (South Africa) president just declared a state of disaster - country in lockdown. Nobody to leave their homes for 21 days as from midnight on Thursday except those in certain n professions and industries. Food stores and pharmacies will stay open, but that is about it. 


Current case count at 402 though, so knowing what we know about local conditions, we'll have to wait and see if the lockdown has any positive effects.


Maria T wrote:


I was watching a video that explained the "whens" and the "hows" of the infection's behavior.

According to him, here, if people behave well once and for all, this week we would reach the highest peak of the infection (the deaths would go more slowly behind) and from the following week, it would start to drop.

Perhaps Italy has finally reached the peak of infection.
Let's hope so Smiley Happy


There are two peaks. There is the first peak where the new cases slow down, then a second peak when the  number of actual active cases starts to go down, (more people recover (or die) than get newly infected) which may happen around 2 weeks after the new cases start to decline.

 

In the meantime, I like this:

 

control.jpg


Petra R wrote:

There may be just a glimmer of light at the end of the Italian tunnel.

For the second day in a row, new infections are down They were lower than they were in the last 5 days.


That's great news!

I just hope we won't see a raise of new cases in the south of Italy, that would be a disaster.

reinierb
Community Member


Petra R wrote:

There may be just a glimmer of light at the end of the Italian tunnel.

 

For the second day in a row, new infections are down They were lower than they were in the last 5 days.

 

New deaths are also down somewhat, for the 3rd day running.

 

Far too early to think we're on our way down, but encouraging nonetheless.  Rest of the world not looking quite so great...

 

Let's hope the numbers keep on declining! 

 

The situation with rising case numbers just got very real for me today when 2 cases in my little town of Hartbeespoort were confirmed. Both patients are in enforced quarantine somewhere else, but they both live less than 2 km away from me, so I may very well have rubbed shoulders with either, or both of them in the local supermarket during the last week or so. 

 


 

Renier,

 

Yup. Our demographic is a little (whole lot) different from most other countries. And the number mentioned is only cases confirmed in the healthcare industry. We both know about the cases that will never get a mention. 

 

My in-house statistician's sums for the next few weeks don't look too good (his stats have been 100% correct thus far). Every time the new stats show up and he compares them to his he goes...See? See? I TOLD you! 


Irene B wrote:

Renier,

 

Yup. Our demographic is a little (whole lot) different from most other countries. And the number mentioned is only cases confirmed in the healthcare industry. We both know about the cases that will never get a mention. 

 

My in-house statistician's sums for the next few weeks don't look too good (his stats have been 100% correct thus far). Every time the new stats show up and he compares them to his he goes...See? See? I TOLD you! 


Yup, we tell them all the time, but do they ever listen?

petra_r
Community Member

This mornings charts

 

The slowdown of new cases and deaths in Italy is not really showing much because the numbers overall are so huge, but it's still "a thing" 

 

UK now in lockdown too.

 

March 24rth.jpg

 

deaths 24 March.png

I didn't have the choice, I had to go shopping today. I had tried to use drive shopping for the first time in my life, but could not get connected to the site. Yesterday, in preparation for this event, I bought some gloves at the pharmacy. I was thankful to get a box, as there is a shortage of gloves too.

 

First, I went to Carrefour. Not many cars in the parking lot, and a strange lack of carts. Then came a big surprise: they had organised a door to enter the shopping center and another to exit. They had also organised a sort of waiting line with carts (that's where they were!) that were upside down. A bit like a waiting line at a Disney attraction park, it was a winding line. At the door, someone was in charge of letting people in. I guess the guard at the exit would tell him when customers had left the shopping center, and to let some others in. My husband was not allowed in, only 1 customer at a time. The only exception was 1 adult with 1 kid.

 

The aisles were half empty. No stupid music to make people relax and stay longer than needed. Once in a while, a message to remind people at the check out to wait in line using the marks on the floor to  keep away from other customers.

 

Several items on my shopping list were missing : no eggs (apparently, they are very popular in France right now), no chicken, no lemon, no avocado. My usual brand of toilet paper was available (it's made of recycled paper).

 

At the check-out counter, staff was protected from customers with large window. We were asked to pay by card if possible.

 

I'm so thankful that things were organised, to make this experience bearable!


Luce N wrote:

 

The aisles were half empty. No stupid music to make people relax and stay longer than needed. Once in a while, a message to remind people at the check out to wait in line using the marks on the floor to  keep away from other customers.

 

At the check-out counter, staff was protected from customers with large window. We were asked to pay by card if possible.

 

I'm so thankful that things were organised, to make this experience bearable!


Luce, Thanks for sharing that! Very interesting! 

 

I have cash in my handbag that's been there for ages and more my mother sent me (bless her) in a care packet with German (sweet) mustard and goodies like that, and it's totally worthless as I can't use it anywhere (not that I've BEEN anywhere since January!)

 

Not sure I'll know what do do in a real shop when this is over...

I've slowly been turning my garden into an urban farm/food forest (check youtube if you don't know what it is). Even my sidewalk has food growing (tomatoes and squash that are seeing the end of their lifespan). So, we organised to get a cockerel (called D*ck) and two hens, Nellie and Saartjie. HA! They arrived a little while ago. Seems I have FOUR chickens and a cockerel. I'm out two names. Was thinking of Petra for one... 😛


Irene B wrote:

So, we organised to get a cockerel (called D*ck) and two hens, Nellie and Saartjie. HA! They arrived a little while ago. Seems I have FOUR chickens and a cockerel. I'm out two names. Was thinking of Petra for one... 😛


Knock yourself out.

I had a pet chicken called "Klara" when I was a kid. Well, I thought I had one because my grandparents didn't explain that the chickens are "rotated"  ... My grandfather would tame a brown young chicken from every batch and when I came in the holidays there would always be a tame brown Klara... I'd take her for walks and push her around in a doll's pram and build her houses and stuff. 

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