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kosbik
Community Member

Why Upwork's stock price is falling continuously ?

Who can explain why upwk stock quote falling trend is so continuous ? It's kind a discouraging how weakly the upwk performs. 

56 REPLIES 56
prestonhunter
Community Member

It is not discouraging to me because I don't follow Upwork's stock price.

The reason behind this discouragement is that analysts base their future value of a company on their earnings projection.
If a company's results surprise (are better than expected), the price jumps up. If a company's results disappoint (are worse than expected), then the price will fall.

That being said, the principal theory is that the price movement of a stock indicates what investors feel a company is worth. 

re: "The reason behind this discouragement is that analysts..."

 

Are you sure that is the reason?

 

I think the reason for the discouragement is that you are looking up the stock price. Something I have never done.

 

I put gas into a car and drive around town, but I don't look up Exxon's stock price.

exxon.pngupwork.png

While I concur with Preston that one should not drive one-self crazy with looking up stock-prices all the time, I have to say, wow, that's shockingly low. Are they going to junk this soon?

Upwork will not go to junk any time soon.  They will do what is necessary to increase earnings per share given some of the mix of metrics they have at their disposal.  We may not like the answer.  The CEO currently reports to the Board of Directors.  Not us.

I predict now is a very, very good time to invest in Upwork. 

Personally, I enjoy carrying the shares. I like owning part of the company I effectively work for and playing for the mid-term, meaning 2022 to 2024 is likely to be a winner.  It tends to always work well when one sits inside the company and can see the internal mechanics.

Upwork has cleared out its competitors, stands head-and-shoulders above other platforms in terms of number of clients, contractors, work volumes, and technology.  It should be over quickly and cleanly, mid-term share price trajectory and value increase.

Just an opinion.  As I said. I enjoy owning a part of a company I essentially work for.

6bfcdaf8
Community Member

So for all data wiz polices like me, these 2 charts are completely different because one starts from 1980 and other from 2018. and the x axis scales are completely different! 

lysis10
Community Member

I have some creepto "trader" in my discord and my god I now understand why everyone made fun of forex traders back in the early 2000s. They all claim to be so well off and making so much money, but then they are so unhinged and mentally unstable. lol

 

Part of me wants to get into stocks and go read a book, but the other part of me just watches people into stocks and thinks "poooyuck I prefer to be chill."

kosbik
Community Member

A company's stock price can fluctuate over time, and it often boils down to a matter of supply and demand. If a company proves itself capable of generating long-term earnings and growth, it can become more appealing to investors, and when this happens, it may see more buyers clamoring to purchase its stock. When a company's stock experiences high demand, its price is typically driven up.

 

On the flipside, if a company shows signs of financial deterioration, it may prompt shareholders to sell off their stocks, thus reducing demand. When there's an increased supply of a company's stock and a lower demand, the stock price will usually fall.

lysis10
Community Member

They just need to hire Elon Musk. That guy is such a chad.

reinierb
Community Member


Jennifer M wrote:

They just need to hire Elon Musk. That guy is such a chad.


He is that, indeed. I'm thinking that if he can make spent rockets land upright on ships in choppy seas, sorting out the free connects, or lack of free connects, issue should be short walk in the park for him. Maybe he could also do something about non-responsive clients and JSS scores that decrease for no reason at all, as well. Who knows, his huge salary might be money well spent...

Your business profile and skillsets indicate you have the potential to be a brilliant technical day trader. Perhaps a calling for you some day.

firescue17
Community Member

Good job!

Solved!Solved!

Why is this guy copy/pasting random texts from the Internet?

 

 

-----------
"Where darkness shines like dazzling light"   —William Ashbless

"This guy" is looking for answers on the internet when nobody answers adequately to a question and attaching them to this thread.

lysis10
Community Member


Kostya B wrote:

"This guy" is looking for answers on the internet when nobody answers adequately to a question and attaching them to this thread.


I think you're confusing "nobody can answer" with "nobody cares to answer."

If nobody answers a question I'm forced to look for answers on the internet.
Answers like "...don't follow Upwork's stock price..." or "...be chill.." are not quite informative for me 🙂


Kostya B wrote:

If nobody answers a question I'm forced to look for answers on the internet.
Answers like "...don't follow Upwork's stock price..." or "...be chill.." are not quite informative for me 🙂


Do not despair. Sometimes you just run into a bunch of gurus that take their guru-ness not as seriously as you would like. 

Heart

bizwriterjohn
Community Member

The reason Upwork's stock price is falling is:  earnings issues.   Upwork is varying between 1 cent per share to 5 cents per share in earnings, over the past two years, in a couple quarterlies and an annual.

 

The firm has not turned the corner and figured out how to make a profit.  The downstreams of this are known.

- It is why our fee was increased to 20% some time back

- It is why the CEO was invited to leave


Upwork has promoted internally for the new CEO position.  The new CEO is the former CMO and head of "product development".   This indicates Upwork's board is comfortable with the actual marketing and product deployment of the platform.   This is pure-play financial in their concerns.  Share holders are expecting to see share price increases, profit must increase given the maturity stage of this company.  Solve the profit problem.  Share price skyrockets.

 

Increase in early-in project fees to 25%?   Increase longer-term fees to 15%?
Reduce their primary cost center?  "IT"?
Reduce employee count, consolidate jobs, reduce staff?
Increase number of high-profit jobs (i.e. enterprise accounts, long-term projects)?

Take your pick.  If you are an investor in the stock all of those sound like an excellent idea.
John.

 

bizwriterjohn
Community Member

Since I indicated I enjoy owning stock, and since it seems possible to probable someone will jump on me about stock investments in a stock price that is going down.  They are called "puts".  It was obvious to see with the creaking up of our fees, the massive investment program Upwork engaged in in FY2018/early-90, this firm was going to have profit problems.  Hence.  Puts.

You people live inside a company.  That is the best source of investor information on this planet.  All along, you were seeing Upwork struggling to meet all their objectives, struggling to consolidate, grow.  All of the problems you daily reference.   All along, the answer has been obvious.  Puts until the stock bottoms out, which it probably has in terms of relative potential gains from the put strategy.  Now it is simply a  time period to observe the new CEO, track quarterly earnings projects, match to actuals, and get a "feel" for how the company is clicking along."

All along, you were living inside a company.  The most valuable way to understand it and great news.  Since we are not employees the information we can see -- and experience.  Is free for us to use as we see fit on the investment side.

So we can bypass clinks and clunks associated with the joy of investing in this company. Put strategy for 1-1/2 years and the share price trajectory obviously indicates how pleasant that was.

tlsanders
Community Member


Kostya B wrote:

Who can explain why upwk stock quote falling trend is so continuous ? It's kind a discouraging how weakly the upwk performs. 


Though there are obviously other factors and the decline started earlier, the fact that California has effectively outlawed a huge swath of freelancing work and the federal government in the U.S. is currently attempting to outlaw an even broader swath and do so across the country can't be helping estimates of Upwork's potential future value. 

I know I'm not alone in wondering why some gurus take their words and the title to the point of excruciating boredom ....


Wendy C wrote:

I know I'm not alone in wondering why some gurus take their words and the title to the point of excruciating boredom ....


Dunning-Kruger effect.


Wendy C wrote:

I know I'm not alone in wondering why some gurus take their words and the title to the point of excruciating boredom ....


I resemble that remark

LOL ... and NO, you don't, Mark.   😉

"Writer's write".

My word count plays poorly on this Forum because (a) this is the first
social media platform that is snippet-based in communication style within
which I have participated and (b) I am accustomed to writing 400, 500, 800,
1000-word thought-capital-class pieces by the nature of my career.

On the good news side, I can sell 400, 500, 800, 1000-word
thought-capital-class pieces for a heck of a lot more than I can sell
30-word social media posts.

On the good news side, I can sell 400, 500, 800, 1000-word
thought-capital-class pieces for a heck of a lot more than I can sell
30-word social media posts.

You think the upwork community is social media?  That doesn't sound right to me although I bet somewhere out on the webs there is someone arguing that a forum is social media, I don't think it is.

 

I think this is a place for discussion (and arguments perhaps a bit of childish antics) but not a place to self-promote and build audience.  It isn't about followers and friends it is about participation.  Mostly people want to give of their experience and others hope to learn, but nobody is preaching any sermons here.


Mark F wrote:

... nobody is preaching any sermons here.


I know of at least one person who does.

I view Upwork forum communication as in the vein of social media
communication. It is not blog style communication, as my other frame of
reference.

Since I have no Facebook account. Or Instagram account. Or Twitter
account. Or any other social media platform that focuses on
blurb-and-snippet style communication, this is the equivalent of social
meda. In form, not so very much different than tweets in the length of
most responses.

That's interesting.  I tend to see most responses, well at least to reasonable questions, to contain generally enough information to answer the question based on the freelancer's experience.  Sometimes long, sometimes short, and sometimes good and sometimes bad.

 

My fear has always been to use this platform as a social media might make me want to self-promote in some fashion which is not what it is intended for.  I am not so much concerned about the rules violation as I am the ire of the other people here.  I found that this is a community that I want to be a part of, to engage and be engaged.  I would be concerned if I started treating it more as I might social media, becomming more promotion centered, that I would alienate the people here, many of whom I respect signifcantly.

 

I guess our perceptions really do become reality.

@ Mark +1000 if I could. 


Mark F wrote:

 

 

I think this is a place for discussion (and arguments perhaps a bit of childish antics) but not a place to self-promote and build audience. 


I'm just here for the childish antics.

whitekn3
Community Member

I am not a professional, but I own the stock and have tried to figure out the same thing,  This is what I have found.

1.  I have not found a single professional analyst who understands the company.  It is commonly compared to Fiver, and other small "gig" jobs. A small job for me starts at $500 +.  As far as I can tell it is a monopoly on that market. Because there is no other company like it analysts can only compare apples and oranges.

2.  Leadership seems to be investing in the company's future, just like Amazon did for years.  That makes the balance sheet look bad.  At some point that should change.  If it changes in a positive way the stock will soar. If the investments do not pay off it will crash.  Right now no one knows for certain.

3.  I have seen several comments that indicate the shares have been diluted by employees executing options, issuing convertible bonds, etc.  That tends to lower the price. I have not been able to confirm this.

4.  The market is crazy right now.  Nothing makes sense.

5.  People who bought the IPO as speculation are selling becuase itis not working out for them..(I thought I had purchased after most of them had bailed.  Must have missed something because it went down after I bought, even before the current market problems.

 

I hope others, with more knowledge of real "measurable" facts can jump in and clarify some of this.

humbled
Community Member

This has worried me off and on for a while, it is perhaps a healthly worry as it is a reminder of how important it is diverse income streams. I never found anything close to a good answer to your question.

kbadeau
Community Member

Before the current tumble, Upwork was project to double in the next 24 months, so I bought. I've been scared to look since the last week has been so terrible, but I still think they're in a great place. Suddenly millions of people are going to see that you can get work done without having to hire full time employees. Those of us who have decent reps on here already stand to gain from that, and from the fact that the platform as a whole should do very well in this new future. (Fingers crossed)

 

I am currently turning away work left and right, trying to recruit friends to join the platform.


Kelly B wrote:

Before the current tumble, Upwork was project to double in the next 24 months, so I bought. I've been scared to look since the last week has been so terrible, but I still think they're in a great place. Suddenly millions of people are going to see that you can get work done without having to hire full time employees. Those of us who have decent reps on here already stand to gain from that, and from the fact that the platform as a whole should do very well in this new future. (Fingers crossed)

 

I am currently turning away work left and right, trying to recruit friends to join the platform.


_________________________________

I think you are right,  and don't be scared to look, this is a crisis that will pass. I have shares (not in Upwork) that I thought would have dived catastrophically. They have dipped and then (who knows why) gained a bit. They will no doubt, dip again, as will Upwork - just a ship on the high seas - not rudderless yet! 

Motley Fool recently released this analysis report.  I find it the best yet on stock price valuation analysis.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/07/why-upwork-stock-is-a-value-despite-a-broken-ipo.aspx

This was pre-COVID.  The questions now might be
- Will a shift of preference to remote work benefit a remote work-centric platform.
- Will the upcoming influx of freelancers in net increase revenue or simply dilute revenue for all
- Will COVID 19 shut downs of SMB and corporate activity replicate into shut downs of job listings on our platform.

The yeller-and-barker analyst on CNBC has been hawking 'stay at home companies' as particularly valuable buy choices.  He has not changed his chirp.

Some short term "puts" served well when it was clear COVID would spread and we would be slow to respond. Caught the market in its spiral down. I am now betting on the net we have reached the relative low point and calls are the right direction to bet on.  Massive stimulus, people will have to return to work in <45 days, health risk or not, and a couple trillion in stimulus placed anywhere will raise the floor trader's spirits.

Just a personal theory.  Won't know until I know.  Fun stuff though, when it is time to know.


Nichola L wrote:

 


_________________________________

I think you are right,  and don't be scared to look, this is a crisis that will pass. I have shares (not in Upwork) that I thought would have dived catastrophically. They have dipped and then (who knows why) gained a bit. They will no doubt, dip again, as will Upwork - just a ship on the high seas - not rudderless yet! 


I did finally look, but of course everything is up today.

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