The Airbnb effect un Upwork as a proxy of the macro economic downturn

[jarankowsky]

There have been several topics regarding the dismal situation of job offers in Upwork these past months, and most of them can be explained by the significant macro economic downturn that began May 2022, got worse by Oct-Nov and by now have caused earnings of many freelancers to essentially reach zero.

I can add that the Airbnb economy caused hundred of thousadns of residential properties to be offered for short term leases for tourism and remote work. This took units out of the market and helped to increase rents in many cities and countries.  This economic boom was brutally augmented when the US federal goverment paused the payment of federal loans for studen loans.  This freed approx. 400 usd a month in average for dozens of millions of us citizens, which coupled with remote work due to post-pandemic world, allowed them to travel much more than ever in history while working and freeing up disposable income verey month.  Until it stopped, and as we all know by September dozens of millions will need to continue paying their federal student loans again.

AirBnb reservartions are down above -50% in many cities, including several Latin American areas which catered directly to short term travelers.

How much of Upwork's client base was subisdiszed by the pause in federal sutend loans?  How many tried to do "another startup idea to throw a couple grand on" knowing it could be done when not paying that 400 bucks every month.   The majority of Upwork's clients were from USA, paying services to freelancers worldwide.  With layoffs, inflation, increased cost of living, return to office and much less disposable income, Upwork seems like a desert.

Little jobs, rock bottom rates, and clients which I can describe as "unsophisticated". And that is being generous.

[6bfcdaf8 · Accepted solution]

Yes it feels there are less clients and jobs than ever. That being said, You don't need the whole economy to thrive to survive. There is competition. You still have a chance to be your best version and make a decent living here. And use your increased free time to either self improve or take some time off. 

[jarankowsky]

To be honest, the music has stopped. Without USA clients to pay human rates, Upwork is just an uber of freelancers with hundreds of thousands of workers but very few clients from other regions of the world paying peanuts. And also, unsophisticated, given their language and cognitive skills.

This could go on for another year or two, unitl startups begin to receive new funding (if ever) and companies spend again. 

I am already preparing three hustles to live off them.  I will likely earn way more money than here in upwork as they are scalable: more time invested, more earnings.  Upwork's algorithm rotates profiles so that most got visible a week a month to get some work.  I understand it as otherwise 99% of people would have never got any work here. That worked when there were enough USA clients to get 4-6 jobs a month, but now there is no critical mass and it will be years until things return to normal. If they.