Upwork statistics - getting it right

[#1]

I started this thread because of the broad range of numbers people use to try to prove a point about Upwork. This thread is to work out what stats are used, and how they should be used. I'm hoping we can discuss the nitty-gritty of numbers and how they can be used to prove or disprove an opinion.

The first question is, what are the freelancers trying to prove or deny? Is it how often freelancers have their proposals read? Interviewed? Hired? Is it that Upwork has too many scams? The specific question must be defined before any stats are mentioned. You can't use math for emotional responses, unless you are using them as part of the calculation, which we should not. "Upwork unfair" is not acceptable.

So, hopefully before people start posting their numbers, let's try to define the first question to be answered with hard, cold, facts.

[#2]

In general, I think the recent conversation about statistics is really asking - is Upwork operating in good faith as a service provider... or is it operating in bad faith where providing a service is a lower priority than profiting off of Connects, where the service suffers as a result?

The increasingly low percentage of proposals being viewed, the increasingly low percentage of jobs that hire, the decreasing pay on projects, the decreasing number of times we are getting hired.... maybe this isn't 100% of us, but I think a majority of us are spending more on the platform and investing more time on the platform, to be earning significantly less (or even losing money).  

The fact that transparency also seems to be decreasing on the Upwork side and there's fewer in-person interactions to be had with staff and personnel and a push towards AI.... it's all depressing and it does make me feel like the company is abdicating its promise to be providing a service, in the way that a carnival barker presides over rigged games.  

STEP RIGHT UP!  STEP RIGHT UP!  YOU HAVE TO BID TO WIN!  

Freelancers and Clients alike smell the shift from service platform to casino, and it's eroding the trust that serious clients once had.  More clients may be joining, but it's a smaller and smaller percentage of quality jobs and a higher percentage of theiving clients who want to pay rates below the cost of living in a third-world country.  

[#3]

Is Upwork operating in good faith as a service provider... or is it operating in bad faith where providing a service is a lower priority than profiting off of Connects?

OK, so how do we quantify the question?

I have no argument, without any stats, to agree that service is not a priority and making money is. Upwork cut their staff by 15%, and most of the Support, for clients and freelancers went with it. They ran in the red forever, and were desperate to make some cash. They have the right to make money, that's a given. You don't cut your Support, and monetize everything on the site, unless you value money a lot more than any service or the platform.

The increasingly low percentage of proposals being viewed, the increasingly low percentage of jobs that hire, the decreasing pay on projects, the decreasing number of times we are getting hired.... maybe this isn't 100% of us, but I think a majority of us are spending more on the platform and investing more time on the platform, to be earning significantly less (or even losing money).

Agreed. Too many excellent freelancers have left or aren't using the platform, just checking in to see if any previous clients need work, or are gone forever. There are still great freelancers, but they are buried in piles of fake freelancers who are pretending to try to make a money grab, or the unskilled, or the scammer freelancers... not only in the proposals, but the searches, as well. We could all post our numbers, but that would only be a tiny fraction of the people on Upwork, not enough for any statistical analysis on the platform.

The fact that transparency also seems to be decreasing on the Upwork side and there's fewer in-person interactions to be had with staff and personnel and a push towards AI.... it's all depressing and it does make me feel like the company is abdicating its promise to be providing a service, in the way that a carnival barker presides over rigged games.

Many freelancers feel this way, and with good reason. Upwork has made it clear we, the cogs in the wheel, are interchangeable and replaceable. The community forum is intentionally being made into a joke, with the "gamification" to render the information freelancers need to see as a side-show with badges, and programs spending bandwidth tracking percentages of upvotes. It's become a joke, and a game in itself that Upwork likes, even allowing stalking-upvoting. If Upwork can get the cogs to be distracted by minor stuff, then they won't be spending time on much else. How many people spend time on collecting votes, running schemes to get more upvotes; yes, the plan works well, sad to say. The gamification (Upwork's term and stated plan) extends to the platform, although Upwork has not stated this in writing. "You have to bid to win!" etc. The thundering drumbeat to use "AI" in reality the fourth version of the chatbot and other "AI" programs instead of doing any work yourself. You are constantly being told how may percentages of this and that will go way up if you only spend money, and spend more money.

I think we should examine the numbers Upwork runs in their ads on the jobs feed pages.

[#4]

Freelancers who turn on their Availability Badge receive up to 50% more invites.

This is an Upwork ad from the jobs feed page. It has been running for some time. I would like to examine this statistic, beginning with how Upwork came to this conclusion. If they are advertising on it, they should disclose where they found their data. If your ad agency said here, use this ad, it will do X for you, you would insist on knowing how they drew that conclusion that will cost you money.

[#5]

Jeanne, did you see the thread I started earlier in the spring about the claim re: 10x return on ad spend for boosted posts?  I thought that claim was suspicious in how vague and unclear it was.  Upwork refused to answer my questions and gave me an insultingly non-answer answer.   

The claim about Availability Badge is also suspicious... because "more invites" isn't necessarily the goal for Freelancers.  We want more "quality invites" and "more hires".  I've only ever recieved one invite in 3.5 years on Upwork that wasn't a lowball insult offer.... or an Expert Vetted Talent scout inviting 90 other Freelancers to fight over crumbs on a low paying Enterprise job.  

If paying for the "Availability Badge" doesn't actually result in more hires... then who cares? 

[#6]

I remember you didn't get a useful response.

It's no different from an ad agency posting on a billboard, "we make our clients 80% return in a week." Well, when I go in and am ready to chat about this marvelous plan, they darn well better show me some evidence, or I am just buying hot air, and I would leave. All they have to do is put in an asterisk saying, "from all freelancer proposals in the last year" or "taken from the number of people with complete profiles who boosted on jobs where they held all the skills requirements in the month of May." Even then, there are other variables that must be nailed down.

Upwork needs to be forthcoming so that freelancers can make informed decisions. These stats are all over the place now, but are meaningless without some context. I do not see any way those constant statements are valid as written. I suspect it's the devil in the details. If you could see the numbers, I doubt you would reach the same conclusion, until you used the specific situation Upwork did.

If paying for the "Availability Badge" doesn't actually result in more hires... then who cares?

Upwork cares.

[#7]

I agree 100%.  What can the community do about this?  It's extremely aggrivating to look at those misleading claims every time I log in... but even more so to see this once-promising platform erode and decay.  

[#8]

First and foremost, freelancers have to start taking responsibility for themselves and their situation. It is crucial to separate what is the freelancer's responsibility and what is Upwork's responsibility. This discussion needs to be free of terms like "fair" and stick to what we can define in business and math. Instead of saying, "It's not fair!" they need to be specific. Not getting jobs, doesn't mean Upwork is unfair.

That leads to another situation. Freelancers have to look at themselves first, and see if they play any role in the "unfairness" I hear about so often. I track my interactions with a few data points. In my admittedly small sample, considering the size of Upwork, but out of over 4,000 people who contacted me or wrote in the forum, about how Upwork was cheating, them, stealing their connects, etc. 93% had incomplete or problematic profiles. When freelancers can't do the bare minimum to be a freelancer on Upwork, then you can't start yelling it's Upwork's fault.

Freelancers who have not read or aren't following the Terms of Service, need to make sure they are doing so, before they make a complaint. Profiles are not play spaces for the imagination. Stating you have 100 or 1000% or success or top person on the platform, all of that needs to go, because the stats change. You might be the high earner in your field here, but a new job comes in for the next person, and you are bumped from the spot. But some freelancers aren't battling for the top spot, they are lying. I can say fabricating, being deceptive, etc. but it's lies. Top freelancer, earned X on Upwork (the earnings clearly show Y), all five-star reviews (no, several clients hated the work), and are using stolen work. Profiles are full of successful freelancer information, not theirs, stolen writing, images, coding - it's s brazen.

So, first order of business in defining what Upwork is doing on the platform that directly impacts the freelancer's ROI, is for the freelancers to have everything in order. Otherwise, it would be like holding a gym at issue, because you didn't get into shape. It's not mentioned by the person bringing the complaint that they did not follow any of the instructions or information provided by the gym, and seemed to somehow believe by just showing up and paying the membership they would become buffed.

I'm sure my messages will be full of low-brow insults, but until freelancers take responsibility, they will never go any further. There is much more to say on this subject.

[#9]

Upwork won't tell you these rules of business.

Don't try to be a freelancer if you have no skills, unless you have disposable income. Don't expect to get a job right away, or perhaps ever. Don't depend on Upwork to keep you safe. Stop deliberately going outside of Upwork, because of your greed. If you won't follow the rules, get out, because it's the freelancers who feed the scammers. If the freelancers stopped breaking rules, read the rules, and followed them, the job feed would not look like it does.

[#10]

---

 wrote:

So, first order of business in defining what Upwork is doing on the platform that directly impacts the freelancer's ROI, is for the freelancers to have everything in order.

---

In my case, throughout 2022, I was de-listed / shadowbanned by the platform and my name did not show up in search results for the vast majority of the year.  In various tests, my name showed up 200-300 PAGES deep into the search results.  I was unable to hold Upwork accountable for the broken search impacting my ROI because my attempts to reach Upper Management were ignored.  (This is depite having a 100% JSS, being Expert Vetted and hundreds of thousands of earnings)

Presently, various aspects of Upwork's management are impacting my ROI:

* Lack of transparency as to what changes to the algorithm impact performance and visbility on the platform.  It is unfair for us to spend our money plus 10% our earnings to be guinnea pigs as Upwork tinkers to find what combination of parameters make THEM the most money

* Upwork is doing a poor job of marketing/selling their product, including wasteful overspending on ad campaigns that are made by high-priced marketing agencies rather than hiring the marketing and advertising and video production experts ON UPWORK, who know and are invested in the platform (like yours truly) to create actually impactful ads that speak to the kind of clients we want to see

* The transformation of Upwork into a casino is driving away high quality clients - I hardly see anything worth applying to anymore, and when I do, the majority of the time, my proposal is not viewed

* The absolute uselessness of the Expert Vetted Talent Team, who ignore messages and match me with completely inadequate projects, in the rare instances where they even reach out

* There is no moderation on Upwork against freelancers who make false claims on their profiles - many claim to be the "best" or claim to have 100% scores when this is obviously not true.  I've also encountered Freelancers who post work that they did not create themselves, or post work where they played a minor role in, as if they were the sole creator.  

* Upwork profits from job postings that are dead ends with no intent to hire - there needs to be some skin in the game for clients, even a nominal $2 fee per posting, to minimize the amount of times we pay to apply to jobs that are just vapor

Just a few comments here - I have the flawless profile you speak of, but the platform's decline/decay/mismanagement is ruining my ROI and will eventually force me off the platform if it doesn't improve.  

[#11]

It seems we are still running into issues of non-transparency, the first being, exactly how many freelancers are on this site? I'm not finding hard numbers, and this is not my first time.

How can you evaluate the steps you've taken, or might take, without knowing the numbers? It's not enough for Upwork to make an ad touting numbers; there has to be some data, or else Upwork is simply making things up. While I don't think they are doing that, I do think numbers are manipulated by using certain data, when it's convenient, and making categories we know nothing about.

I believe Upwork management has been listening to the ad guys and bought a whole series of poor and expensive ad series.  They could do so much better with the freelancers, especially since they understand the system, definitely want to attract more clients, and would have more incentive, while being less expensive (not cheap). The ad people are good at their game. I have seen a lot of businesses looking for cash where management is oh-so- impressed with a personally tailored show, stroking the ego, while whispering sweet financials in the ear.

I believe there is no way to adequately predict the risk on this platform with hidden information. Where else in business are you expected to offer up money and see if something happens? Even in casinos, they post the odds.

[#12]

This is a a great point - Casinos share overall average returns on slot machines as an example.  You can't go in totally blind.  With Upwork, there is no way gauge how likely it is for a job to result in a hire.  By the time you realize your success rate is below 1%.... too late, you've spent hundreds if not thousands on connects and wasted a ton of time as well.  

[#13]

Maybe this is the question. Do the freelancers have the right to know the true numbers, beginning with the total numbers of freelancers on the platform? Obviously, Upwork doesn't think so, and will throw whatever manipulated data they can. Is that illegal? We don't know, because we don't know what stats they are using, and how they are using them. Manipulation doesn't necessarily mean anything illegal is happening. Data can be manipulated by using different categories, subcategories, and picking and choosing which stats make Upwork look like a normally functioning business.

I believe Upwork has a responsibility to be forthcoming with data that affects everyone's finances. 20 million freelancers, compared to 850,00 clients seems to be the most relevant, current, and accurate data. I have asked numerous times for the official answer, and since Upwork doesn't mind the figure being used, it is probably worse than it seems, and it appears to be absolutely horrible. Even considering this, Upwork is still advertising for freelancers, with the no skills needed ads.

So, I am going to use the Upwork figures of 20 million vs. 850,00 clients. Who would ever use the platform? Exactly.

[#14]

No low-brow insults from me; I agree completely. I think the most important thing a freelancer can do--before complaining about Upwork's terrible marketplace--is to ensure they're doing everything they can to keep their houses in order.

For example:

• Do you have marketable skills?
• Do you have qualifications and experience relevant to the jobs you seek?
• Have you engaged in Upwork's Academy Courses to understand how everything works?
• Is your profile well-written and in order?
• Are you writing quality proposals based on the client's job?
• Are you following the Terms of Services?

If you can answer "yes" to all of these, you might have good reason to complain about Upwork, it's statistics, or anything else.

[#15]

Great list. Clark, you are one of the very few people who tell freelancers they need to be responsible, while still being able to see the reality of the platform. We need many more freelancers to do the same.

Most freelancers become very angry when I tell them they have a responsibility here, if they want to have a successful career and make the platform better. All it takes to make the platform better, is to follow the rules.

[#16]

Once the freelancers can show they have done due diligence, then the message becomes clear. The freelancers who have done everything right, followed all of the rules, bid, boosted, optimized profiles, and jumped through all of the Upwork hoops, and are in the red - these are the numbers that show there is a problem.

When these freelancers have posted, some making very substantial amounts, for Upwork, too, no one posts, Upwork doesn't reach out; they don't care enough to say don't let the door hit your gluteus maximus as you take your skills, dedication, and support of the platform away from the platform, leaving it poorer and with one less skilled freelancer. This shows that Upwork, whatever they say, is not that interested in the high earners. We knew that when they raised the rate on top earners. Whatever business model they are being sold on now, it doesn't have anything to do with retaining the skilled, high-earning freelancers. But just knowing this isn't enough. How do we put this into a numeric, or at least a logical, format?

As Clark mentioned, without access to data, or Upwork suddenly deciding to stop hiding non-security or financial risk numbers, Upwork attempts to hamstring us. Therefore, we need to see what data we do have access to, and that will require us to do more searching. There are multiple legal and ethical ways to find data, and sometimes you hit on something by accident.

[#17]

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 Jeanne H wrote:

Freelancers who turn on their Availability Badge receive up to 50% more invites.

This is an Upwork ad from the jobs feed page. It has been running for some time. I would like to examine this statistic, beginning with how Upwork came to this conclusion. If they are advertising on it, they should disclose where they found their data. If your ad agency said here, use this ad, it will do X for you, you would insist on knowing how they drew that conclusion that will cost you money.

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It's also a useless metric for evaluating Upwork's value to my business. "More invites" don't make me money. "More invites" says nothing about their quality, or relevance to my services. If Upwork touts some new/old feature, the relevant metric—really, for just about anything—is more successfully completed contracts. 

[edited to add: Sorry, Thomas J M, I hadn't read far enough to realize you had already made these points.]

[#18]

The first question is, what are the freelancers trying to prove or deny?

I think many freelancers come here to prove how terrible Upwork is. The fact is, it can be a terrible place for some freelancers, but it can be (and is) great for others. Ultimately, this:

Is it how often freelancers have their proposals read? Interviewed? Hired? Is it that Upwork has too many scams?

is the only thing most freelancers can use for statistics because it's all they see. Their proposal view rate, invitations received, hires, and the number of scams they see is typically all they know, so their statistics and frustrations are based on this.

When I consider statistics, I try to disregard my feelings and/or issues (i.e., frustrations, biases, problems, etc.) and seek to analyze data/information from a large sample set if I can get it. I tend to look at Upwork's reported data and deduce or speculate from there. For example, I recently read Upwork’s most recent quarterly report and saw that the number of active clients increased for the three months ending March 31, 2024, but Gross Services Volume (GSV) per active client was down 4%. Since growth in the number of active clients and GSV per active client are the primary drivers of GSV, and client-spend is the main component of GSV, I believe the 4% decline is due to decreasing budgets. I'm seeing many more low-paying jobs than in years past, and this is likely due to the growing number of low-skilled freelancers willing to accept low-paying jobs.

Even with reported data, it's difficult to develop solid statistics because Upwork does not (and probably never will) divulge the type hidden data we wish to know. For instance:

• How many low-skilled freelancers are here?
• What is considered "low-skill?"
• How many total active freelancers are here?
• Exactly how many posted jobs (not all jobs) result in hires?
• How many posted jobs result in hires after 2 days, 5 days, 2 weeks, etc?
• If I change X in my profile, how long before the algorithm sees it and uses it to calculate ______?

So, I try to use reported data with a sprinkle of deduction. Most everything else is just guessing.

[#19]

The actual statistsic I want to know the most is the real number of jobs that result in hires, so far in 2024.  I think this would put a lot of our experiences in perspective... and I think it's telling that Upwork not volunteering this information.  If it was "a majority of jobs result in hires" - don't you think this would be trumpted from a mountaintop?  

[#20]

Yes. I believe when Upwork or any business has great reviews, statistics, data, metrics, etc., they sometimes (and probably should) shout it from the nearest rooftop. If a perceived statistic isn't being touted or gleefully promoted, we (freelancers) assume the statistic is negative or bad.

But we must ask ourselves: "What are we prepared to believe?" Like you and others have pointed out regarding the "Freelancers who turn on their Availability Badge receive up to 50% more invites" statistic, not only is it suspicious, it is useless for evaluating value to our businesses. Even so, are we willing to believe that a statistic being shouted from the rooftops is good and accurate, while the statistics they keep hidden are bad because they would place Upwork in a negative light?

As an example, I think the number of available jobs resulting in hires is bad, which is likely why Upwork doesn't reveal those numbers. But if they shout a statistic from the rooftops (i.e., "turning on the Availability Badge receives up to 50% more invites;" "boosting your profile increases your chance of getting hired by up to 2x") does it convince freelancers the statistics are good and valid or do freelancers still not believe them?

[#21]

For me, it comes down to... when you hear hooves, it's most likely horses, not zebras.  We are skeptical of these claims by Upwork because we trust our own experiences and the experiences posted here.  My experience has been dismal. 

With my experience, superb portfolio, willingness to work on lower rates and excellent communication/availability... I should have more than a 1% success rate on the platform, but I have not been able to crack that threshhold all year.  I have yet to hear/see a success story of someone getting great performance thanks to spending on Connects, and Upwork has yet to produce some concrete evidence that these products work in anyone's favor other than the shareholders.

[#22]

Well, based on my experience here, I believe these forums are frequented more by dissatisfied freelancers than satisfied ones. If a freelancers' own negative experience is coupled with the experiences of others in these forums, then I agree--most everything about Upwork seems atrocious and the sky is falling.

However, I know this marketplace doesn't work the same for every freelancer. From what I've seen, freelancers with success stories don't post in these forums as often as those who are upset with their Upwork experience. Then again, there are many who are dissatisfied and simply never post in these forums.

I think some concrete evidence would be nice, but I also think freelancers will be disappointed with the data/information provided.

[#23]

You are correct, we are not being given information that is highly relevant to our return.

We don't even have a number of freelancers in total. When Upwork was sharing data, they stated there were 18 million freelancers here, with thousands signing up every day. Using their figures was how I came to the 20 million figure.

Skills are not a concern. Upwork doesn't even have the moderators give a canned response to long-term freelancers with excellent skills, and who have made a lot of money, and a lot of money for Upwork forced to leave because of current policies.

[#24]

This is the right policy. I'm not saying good or honest. Experienced freelancers get in the way: they don’t communicate via telegram, they don’t send connections in batches, they complain about bots\scammers and they help newbies not to waste money. The only people who should remain are the experts who say: this is a great site, my earnings are huge, do a boost and send a lot of applications everywhere. 😉

About digits: i fighting with bot who post many fake jobs daily (an 2-3 fakes each hour) wintin last 3 weeks. With no success at all. Upwork use job posted counter in some AD for sure.

[#25]

It's interesting that out of almost 500 people who have read the post, few wish to participate in a conversation using facts. I've heard from a couple of freelancers who believe I am a not-so-secret employee of Upwork, and a couple more who believe I am making money from connects. They don't post here, because they know the response. It's amazing how much time and energy people will spend on complaining and demanding things be changed for them, without a thought to the other freelancers or the platform.