Coronavirus

[#1]

So, today this happens.

[#2]

Italy's numbers are out. Both cases and deaths are notably down.  New infections 4316, deaths 525, the lowest since March 19th. Recoveries rising too.

Spain looking promising if final, UK not so much. Germany not final yet, clearly. France not out yet.

I really think Italy is over the peak and on the way down. Hope it turns for everyone else soon, too.

Graphs in the morning 🙂

[#3]

It is just one month + a day  that Petra started this thread - in that time thousands of people have died. Thousands more have been infected globally - and no doubt thousands more will die.

I am so pleased that we are all here to still comment and contribute to it this thread. But let's just pause a moment to think of all the frontline medical staff - particularly in Italy - who have died while trying to save others.

[#4]

Currently, the death rate from the virus in New Orleans is double that of New York City.  Thanks, Mardi Gras...

[#5]

Oh Mary ... 

[#6]

I vividly remember being in the car with my husband on Fat Tuesday, going camping for the weekend, and I said you don’t imagine they’re actually celebrating Mardi Gras do you? But they hadn’t canceled much of anything at that point. Spring training was still going on in Phoenix and there was a huge music festival that weekend.

[#7]

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Nichola L wrote:

It is just one month + a day  that Petra started this thread - in that time thousands of people have died.

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I actually read through it from the start the other days and it is interesting how perceptions changed along with the numbers.

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Nichola L wrote:

am so pleased that we are all here to still comment and contribute to it this thread. But let's just pause a moment to think of all the front line medical staff - particularly in Italy - who have died while trying to save others.

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Yes! All over the world. It's not just those who lost their lives, also those who are having to live away from their families in case they put elderly relatives in danger. Also those who have to make horrendous decisions every day who gets that last IC bed or that last ventilator.

Mary, that's how the biggest "cell" in Germany started too. Unwise decision to go ahead with carnival in a small town.

I remember seeing the pictures from the Cheltenham Festival in the UK and being utterly horrified that they thought cramming over a quarter of a million people onto a racecourse over 4 days was a good idea. I was chatting to a friend in England about that yesterday and she said she saw the same pictures and "it just did not register"  I guess that's pretty much how I felt when it was still mainly "over there in China" and then "up in the North of Italy." 

Anyway. Time for the graphs.

[#8]

Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) has been hospitalized after not recovering as expected during self-isolation.

Just thought Id put the graphs from 2 weeks ago and today up together, as I've been saying all along "just wait a couple of weeks...."

two weeks agotoday

[#9]

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Petra R wrote:

Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) has been hospitalized after not recovering as expected during self-isolation.

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Meanwhile in Ireland. Leo Varadkar to work as doctor during pandemic

[#10]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

Boris Johnson (British Prime Minister) has been hospitalized after not recovering as expected during self-isolation.

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Meanwhile in Ireland. Leo Varadkar to work as doctor during pandemic

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Leading from the front! Bravo.

This thing clearly brings out the best or the worst in people-

Meanwhile, in the Pyrenees. Man fined after having to be rescued in the Pyrenees after bodged attempt to walk to Spain for cheap cigarettes.. (roll eyes......)

[#11]

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Petra R wrote:

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Meanwhile, in the Pyrenees. Man fined after having to be rescued in the Pyrenees after bodged attempt to walk to Spain for cheap cigarettes.. (roll eyes......)

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They should send him the bill for the helo and the rescue team.

[#12]

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Rene K wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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Meanwhile, in the Pyrenees. Man fined after having to be rescued in the Pyrenees after bodged attempt to walk to Spain for cheap cigarettes.. (roll eyes......)

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They should send him the bill for the helo and the rescue team.

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I know, right? I am so glad I gave up smoking. Having to hunt for cigarettes in these times would be so no fun. Not that I'd decide to traipse across mountains...

[#13]

UK went up 40k. USA went up THREE HUNDRED THOUSAND. 😳

I sure hope the virus doesn’t like warm weather because we’ve been in the 80s recently.

[#14]

Thanks for the graphs, Petra. I appreciate this daily snapshot.

It's obvious cases are being under-reported in the US. I wonder to what degree it's occurring elsewhere. It'll be years before we have reliable estimates.
https://nyti.ms/2JIkmuS

[#15]

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Phyllis G wrote:

Thanks for the graphs, Petra. I appreciate this daily snapshot.

It's obvious cases are being under-reported in the US. I wonder to what degree it's occurring elsewhere. It'll be years before we have reliable estimates.
https://nyti.ms/2JIkmuS

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Oh absolutely, but if we assume that the underreporting is consistent within any given country, we can still see trends up and down.

Having said that, the UK are (FINALLY) going to ramp up testing so I expect the confirmed cases to rise accordingly. People in ICU and deaths are more reliable as far as actual numbers go.

I am now just looking at trend, not exact numbers.

[#16]

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Petra R wrote:

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Phyllis G wrote:

Thanks for the graphs, Petra. I appreciate this daily snapshot.

It's obvious cases are being under-reported in the US. I wonder to what degree it's occurring elsewhere. It'll be years before we have reliable estimates.
https://nyti.ms/2JIkmuS

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Oh absolutely, but if we assume that the underreporting is consistent within any given country, we can still see trends up and down.

Having said that, the UK are (FINALLY) going to ramp up testing so I expect the confirmed cases to rise accordingly. People in ICU and deaths are more reliable as far as actual numbers go.

I am now just looking at trend, not exact numbers.

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Absolutely, I think the trends are key. I just am aghast all over again, every day, at how our federal response has been bungled in so many ways. 

[#17]

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Janean L wrote:

"I know!" she said. "I was very smug about it all. I said to my husband: 'See! I haven't been hoarding ! I've just been preparing !' "

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I've started working on my first mask. I'm using some fabric I've inherited from my mum God know when. 30 years ago, maybe? Once in a while, I'd look at this huge piece of cloth and wonder what I could do with it. Never had the courage to get rid of it.

Plus I've found bits of elastic I didn't even know I had. Strange how I've been preparing for this crisis for years without even knowing.

[#18]

Here is the first mask. Not too difficult to make, but I didn't have any polar fleece. However, I had some interfacing and used it.

This morning, on the radio, heard comments about this pattern. It was criticised for the central seam, which  could let "things" go through the mask. I may chose to use another pattern, simpler to make.

[#19]

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Luce N wrote:

Here is the first mask. Not too difficult to make, but I didn't have any polar fleece. However, I had some interfacing and used it.

This morning, on the radio, heard comments about this pattern. It was criticised for the central seam, which  could let "things" go through the mask. I may chose to use another pattern, simpler to make.

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It's lovely and beautully made but won't that be terribly hot to wear? The ones I've seen were made from much thinner materia and unlined?

That "letting things through the central seam claim is a bit ridiculous as the mask is open all the way around and isn't hermetically sealed. Any mask "lets things through" 

Except maybe this one

[#20]

This mask tutorial may have been shared here already, I've forgotten where I came across it. Good information about design, fit, materials and maintenance.

http://communitymake.ca/diy-face-mask/?fbclid=IwAR1WdHgXgXoDUGEbLEJU-4u-v-qvmObTA2zKPSBjU_Uf4_eb3yX0...

[#21]

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Phyllis G wrote:

This mask tutorial may have been shared here already, I've forgotten where I came across it. Good information about design, fit, materials and maintenance.

http://communitymake.ca/diy-face-mask/?fbclid=IwAR1WdHgXgXoDUGEbLEJU-4u-v-qvmObTA2zKPSBjU_Uf4_eb3yX0...

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I think I sent you that link, but since then, yet another friend has told me that that design isn't good and they have a better one. Sigh. I had lofty plans to make a bunch of masks and donate them, but I made the mistake of mentioning this on Facebook and was sent tons of conflicting advice and different patterns from well-meaning friends. Just when I thought I had a good pattern, somebody else would send me an article pointing out everything that was wrong with that pattern. I'm a bit frustrated and discouraged now. I need to regroup and experiment a bit more to find a good fit that's breathable and comfortable.

[#22]

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Christine A wrote:

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Phyllis G wrote:

This mask tutorial may have been shared here already, I've forgotten where I came across it. Good information about design, fit, materials and maintenance.

http://communitymake.ca/diy-face-mask/?fbclid=IwAR1WdHgXgXoDUGEbLEJU-4u-v-qvmObTA2zKPSBjU_Uf4_eb3yX0...

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I think I sent you that link, but since then, yet another friend has told me that that design isn't good and they have a better one. Sigh. I had lofty plans to make a bunch of masks and donate them, but I made the mistake of mentioning this on Facebook and was sent tons of conflicting advice and different patterns from well-meaning friends. Just when I thought I had a good pattern, somebody else would send me an article pointing out everything that was wrong with that pattern. I'm a bit frustrated and discouraged now. I need to regroup and experiment a bit more to find a good fit that's breathable and comfortable.

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I think there is a tremendous value in offering masks to the general public (vs. trying to replicate what a healthcare professional needs). I feel like wearing any sort of facing covering will be key to reopening the economy....as it helps remind us about physical distancing and does limit the potential to infect others (if we are asymptomatic) purely a non-medical opinion. 

[#23]

Numbers for Italy out. New cases down significantly again. 3599 new cases - the lowest it has been since the 17th of March. Deaths somewhat higher than yesterday at 636, but it is obvious that the deaths falling will always be behind the numer of new infections.

I don't think any of the other main numbers are final yet. I'm feeling that giddy sense of relief that we are still going in the right direction,

I'll say it again (this time as a beacon of hope, not as a warning like a month ago) - "WATCH THE ITALIAN CURVE!" If you carry on doing what you can to flatten the curve, yours will follow as well!

[#24]

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Christine A wrote:

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Phyllis G wrote:

This mask tutorial may have been shared here already, I've forgotten where I came across it. Good information about design, fit, materials and maintenance.

http://communitymake.ca/diy-face-mask/?fbclid=IwAR1WdHgXgXoDUGEbLEJU-4u-v-qvmObTA2zKPSBjU_Uf4_eb3yX0...

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I think I sent you that link, but since then, yet another friend has told me that that design isn't good and they have a better one. Sigh. I had lofty plans to make a bunch of masks and donate them, but I made the mistake of mentioning this on Facebook and was sent tons of conflicting advice and different patterns from well-meaning friends. Just when I thought I had a good pattern, somebody else would send me an article pointing out everything that was wrong with that pattern. I'm a bit frustrated and discouraged now. I need to regroup and experiment a bit more to find a good fit that's breathable and comfortable.

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What I took away from my initial quick read of that tutorial is the most important things are snug fit, breathability, layers, fabric texture that will catch virus cells, and cleanability. So, I think any design that meets those criteria is fine. I own a sewing machine but have negative aptitude for sewing, so am on the lookout for the most idiot-proof design. And trying to figure out the best thing to use for the nose piece.

[#25]

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Phyllis G wrote:

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What I took away from my initial quick read of that tutorial is the most important things are snug fit, breathability, layers, fabric texture that will catch virus cells, and cleanability. So, I think any design that meets those criteria is fine. I own a sewing machine but have negative aptitude for sewing, so am on the lookout for the most idiot-proof design. And trying to figure out the best thing to use for the nose piece.

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Agreed. Washability is an important factor because they should be cleaned after each use, so I abandoned the idea of using vacuum filters (even though I've heard that it's the most effective material). But a friend who's a nurse pointed out that the design from the link that I sent you is problematic, because by sewing seams down the centre, you're putting tiny holes in the fabric right where your nose and mouth are. This pattern is easier anyway if you're a beginner, so I've gone back to that now, but I'm experimenting with some kind of pleating around the nose to fit better, and using ties that go around the head instead of elastic. I'll share the results when I get something that I'm happy with.

[#26]

First-hand reports (to me, that I am passing along to you, second-hand) from (1) New York City; and (2) medical personnel in very-rural U.S. :

(1) While public hospitals in New York City are overwhelmed, a doctor friend (medical resident) at a private hospital in NYC (Lenox Hill) says that they are still okay; not yet in crisis mode. (This was as of Saturday, 4/4/20.)

(2) Two of my children in NYC boroughs tell me that the general situation there has not yet deteriorated. Streets are eerily quiet, but stores remain stocked and panic hasn't set in. They are choosing to stay in place for now (despite pleas from mother/mother-in-law that they decamp).

(3) Doctor who practices in West Virginia reports that they are very, very quiet there. No chaos. Likely that many medical practices will go bankrupt, however, due to the slowdown in elective cases. (This is as of this morning, Monday, 4/6/20.)