Solved: Coronavirus - Page 28

petra_r · ‎03-04-2020

So, today this happens.

AndreaG · ‎02-14-2022

Hi all,

This thread has been closed from further replies due to its size. We understand this topic is still ongoing and affecting our Community members. Please, feel free to start a new thread to continue discussing the latest news around the pandemic.

~Andrea

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wendy_writes · ‎04-22-2020

An astute insight why some US governors - Georgia's Kemp in particular - are so keen (anxious and antsy) to reopen ... and, IMHO, totally vile and despicable.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-21-2020?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4NzYzMDI5LCJwb3N0X2lk...

petra_r · ‎04-22-2020

SO, my data, which I had painstakingly collected every morning for weeks, is gone.

Rather than try to recreate it, I thought of something else. From now on, we will look at active cases only, because that best shows how the curve can go up and down. Because of the huge numbers in the US skewing everyone else's; I am doing one with, and one without the USA.

I started each curve at 25k current active cases.

kbadeau · ‎04-22-2020

Petra R wrote:
No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

The curves have been looking pretty much the same lately anyway...

Italy has seen a decrease of the currently infected people for the second day running, and the lowest percentage of positive tests at 5.2% to date. We are expecting an announcement that some more restrictions will be lifted any day now.

I am watching the Spanish numbers with some concern and am wondering whether they might have opened up a little too early and a bit much.

Meanwhile, I think the Swedish experiment of not doing much can probably safely be called a failure 😞

I keep googling Sweden to try to find out how much of a failure it is, but it's difficult. They do have far more fatalities than they "should" have, but I'm not and have never claimed to be an economist, so I don't know what the fallout will be for places like the U.S. where our economy has been pummeled. I do know that the last time around, we bailed out "Wall St instead of Main St" and the rich got richer and the prosperity gap widened. We at least have more people insured now than we did then, but when they talk about the cure being worse than the disease, does anyone know what kind of data (if any) they pull that from? It's hard for me to believe that sacrificing people now for the good of the economy/unknown amounts of people in the future is the wrong way to do it.

kbadeau · ‎04-22-2020

Petra R wrote:
No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

The curves have been looking pretty much the same lately anyway...

Italy has seen a decrease of the currently infected people for the second day running, and the lowest percentage of positive tests at 5.2% to date. We are expecting an announcement that some more restrictions will be lifted any day now.

I am watching the Spanish numbers with some concern and am wondering whether they might have opened up a little too early and a bit much.

Meanwhile, I think the Swedish experiment of not doing much can probably safely be called a failure 😞

If I were a conspiracy theorist I would think it's quite suspicious that your data has gone missing. Is Big Brother watching you?

petra_r · ‎04-22-2020

Kelly B wrote:
Petra R wrote:
No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

If I were a conspiracy theorist I would think it's quite suspicious that your data has gone missing. Is Big Brother watching you?

Oh no, this was complete and utter human incompetence (mine) - I really must get into the habit of autosaving stuff to the cloud.

But to be honest, they weren't really helping anymore.

I plan to teach myself how to convert the new data per function in excel into "per Million population" - which will then allow the US to be shown on a level playing field with the smaller countries.

A far as "How much of a failure is Sweden" is concerned - this may help: You can add or remove countries to compare. Unfortunately it's not on a timeline from outbreak, but it is representative as it compares Sweden to its Skandinavian neighbours per Million population.

gilbert-phyllis · ‎04-22-2020

Wendy C wrote:
An astute insight why some US governors - Georgia's Kemp in particular - are so keen (anxious and antsy) to reopen ... and, IMHO, totally vile and despicable.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-21-2020?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4NzYzMDI5LCJwb3N0X2lk...

I subscribe to that daily letter and find it one of the most worthwhile things right now. Dr. Richardson also does two lectures a week, on Tue and Thu afternoons. One answers questions from listeners/readers and the other is a walk through American political history, sort of a companion series to her new book.

petra_r · ‎04-22-2020

So, I taught myself how to apply formulas to whole columns lol

What I wanted to see was how different countries' curves compared per Million people.

The previous charts were always skewed because different countries have different population so the large US numbers flattened everyone else, and also made the US look much worse.

So what we have here is the curves on a timeline with day 1 being when there were 25k cases in that country. Active cases means people who are currently known to be infected and alive. In other words, total cases minus dead people and mins those who are well again.

It looks like Europe except the UK is flattening and declining, Germany actually outperforming everyone.

USA is not flattening at all yet.

petra_r · ‎04-23-2020

As for people rioting on the streets for restrictions to be lifted:

kbadeau · ‎04-23-2020

petra_r · ‎04-23-2020

Today's chart with active cases per million population on a timeline from 25k cases. Everyone on the way down except for the UK and USA, and Spain being a bit wiggly.

Italy is looking promising, but it is very regional. While some of the regions that were originally hit hardest are recovering, it is still spreading down south, with my region (Abruzzo) unfortunately currently still increasing fastest. "R0" is when each infected person infects "only" 1 other. When it is below 1, the outbreak goes away over time.

petra_r · ‎04-24-2020

IMPORTANT UPDATE! Fresh off the press!

Spoiler

petra_r · ‎04-25-2020

Chart... currently active cases per Million of population.

Germany winning, Italy starting the downward curve. Italy is testing aggressively with over 60k tests a day and the percentage of cases found is dropping. Yesterday, just 3.6% of those tested turned out to have been positive (around the peak it was over 30%)

UK media were talking of having peaked but I don't see that yet.

kbadeau · ‎04-26-2020

So when does Petra get to leave the house and what is the first place she will go to? 😊

We almost hit 100F yesterday so if the virus doesn’t like hot weather Arizona is in good shape.

colettelewis · ‎04-26-2020

Petra wrote:

"UK media were talking of having peaked but I don't see that yet."

Nor do I, and their news programs are interesting. They do not mention the new cases. The UK is now just behind Germany in the number of cases (and in a very short space of time), with well over three times the number of deaths. They are not manipulating the figures exactly, just not revealing the full story.

colettelewis · ‎04-26-2020

Kelly B wrote:
So when does Petra get to leave the house and what is the first place she will go to? 😊

We almost hit 100F yesterday so if the virus doesn’t like hot weather Arizona is in good shape.
_____________________________________

I don't know if it is the weather or not - or perhaps because it is less populated (?) but Arizona does not seem to be as affected as many other states - not the best - but not way up either. One of the first Covid-19 cases to be recorded in America was in Arizona on January 26, in Maricopa County, which also has the highest number of cases in Arizona. The state also seems to record a higher number of deaths of people between the ages of 21 and 44 than the over 60s, which is not usually the case.

kbadeau · ‎04-26-2020

Nichola L wrote:
Kelly B wrote:
So when does Petra get to leave the house and what is the first place she will go to? 😊

We almost hit 100F yesterday so if the virus doesn’t like hot weather Arizona is in good shape.
_____________________________________
I don't know if it is the weather or not - or perhaps because it is less populated (?) but Arizona does not seem to be as affected as many other states - not the best - but not way up either. One of the first Covid-19 cases to be recorded in America was in Arizona on January 26, in Maricopa County, which also has the highest number of cases in Arizona. The state also seems to record a higher number of deaths of people between the ages of 21 and 44 than the over 60s, which is not usually the case.

Our case in Maricopa county was actually a student who I believe was from Wuhan or at least had just returned from there. My county is in relatively good shape, but we had a bridge tournament that caused a cluster, and our nursing homes are being hit hard. But Navajo Nation, which fills our NE corner and also parts of Utah and New Mexico, has been hit hard in terms of cases. Deaths so far look remarkably low though.

petra_r · ‎04-26-2020

Nichola L wrote:
Petra wrote:
"UK media were talking of having peaked but I don't see that yet."

Nor do I, and their news programs are interesting. They do not mention the new cases. The UK is now just behind Germany in the number of cases (and in a very short space of time), with well over three times the number of deaths. They are not manipulating the figures exactly, just not revealing the full story.

The key is "testing!"

If you test more, you find more cases. If you test less, you find less cases.

Germany have tested nearly 25,000 people per 1 Million population

The UK have tested nearly 10,000 people per 1 Million population

So essentially, 2.5 times as many people tested means far more cases identified means far more people can be treated and isolated and far less people die.

That's (at least partly) why the German curve looks like it does, and the UK's doesn't.

What we've learned is that early lockdown and massive testing leads to everything returning to a form of normality most quickly.

Look at New Zealand: 26,000 tests per Million population. Peaked quickly, curve went down rapidly, minimal deaths (4 per Million population, compared to 167 in the USA, 496 in Spain, 441 in Italy, 350 in France, 305 in the UK and 71 in Germany) Obviously all those numbers will still go up and more steeply for those countries whose outbreaks came later on the timeline, but it literally screams "test and lockdown really early"

If you look at the "deaths per million" for the UK, New Zealand and Germany, it looks like this:

boshoffirene · ‎04-28-2020

Testing per million in my neck of the woods has not been too great, to be honest. Our numbers are relatively low as a result.

But we have a problem: flu season starts any day soon. No idea how that will impact our figures. And Irene and la familia are all still in lockdown. Because the front garden, i.e. original veggie garden, is now taken over by ye olde chickens (small area - I don't mind if they dig it all up so long as they leave my rose bushes alone) I've now resorted to building raised veggie beds in the back. The problem is my garden is quite tropical out back with loads of shade. Plus it's the dogs' area. So....Started the process of building raised beds in the only little sunny area there. The first one is completed and planted with beans, onions, carrots, and aubergines. If it was not for the stormy weather experienced the last few days (causing damage to the old carport/chicken coop) the second would have been built and I would have started filling it up with the branches and leaves all piled in a heap out back. I practice a sort of huglekultur that works brilliantly.

petra_r · ‎04-28-2020

Yesterday was the first day in ages I forgot to check the Italian numbers at 6.30 pm....

Anyway. Active cases per Million time.

I've had to take the UK out because their curve was misleading. I've been wondering why they were talking about having peaked when their curves looked nothing like it, and couldn't understand it. Then I noticed how everyone else reports recovered people, and the UK does not, so theiy curve was simply total cases minus deaths, and it no longer made sense to include here.

Everyone bar USA on a downward trend. Germany has been doing particularly well.

abinadab-agbo · ‎05-01-2020

Petra R wrote:
IMPORTANT UPDATE! Fresh off the press!

Spoiler

We all hope there will be no more graphs to share soon.

But, looking back, would you deem yourself to be a Covidholic or not?

abinadab-agbo · ‎05-01-2020

Whoever first wrote this on the internet nailed it. Literally.

«

1. Basically, you can’t leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.

2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.

3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.

4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.

5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.

6. Gloves won’t help, but they can still help.

7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it’s important to GO OUT.

8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.

9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.

10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick. without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my..

12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand and it’s better not to go out, well, but no…

13. It’s better to get some fresh air, but you get looked at very wrong when you get some fresh air, and most importantly, you don’t go to parks or walk. But don’t sit down, except that you can do that now if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).

14. You can’t go to retirement homes, but you have to take care of the elderly and bring food and medication.

15. If you are sick, you can’t go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.

16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn’t wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too?

17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview must start with " I don’t want to trigger panic, but…"

18. You can’t see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

19. You can walk around with a friend but not with your family if they don’t live under the same roof.

20. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn’t say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.

22. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick. person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.

23. We count the number of deaths but we don’t know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that’s what they will die of

24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications).

25. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but we must no longer be locked up for that?

»

m_sharman · ‎05-01-2020

I don't know who wrote it, but Adley did a video, which was amazing..

https://www.instagram.com/p/B_p1QKRD4Pu/

petra_r · ‎05-02-2020

I am no longer doing daily graphs as they don't change so much from day to say, but as much of Europe has already or is about to start lifting restrictions, watching the curves will become more interesting again to see how successfully countries are containing the situation.

The European countries in my sample have all reached the peak and have been on the way down for a while, especially Germany. Interesting how it started much sooner in Italy than in Germany, but Germany was able to bend the curve so much earlier.

The USA has not reached the peak.

Deaths per Million as per Our World In Data

Oh and same thing with Scandinavia....

So much for "Be like Sweden..."

mwiggenhorn · ‎05-02-2020

We are very, very slowly reopening in Mississippi. Big spike in the numbers, apparently due to an outbreak at a nuclear power plant in the north part of the state (89 cases) as well as consistent testing, at least in my area. The governor is basically leaving a lot of details up to the individual counties and the counties are trusting the mayors to do the appropriate things for their people. I get a daily update from our mayor and things are pretty okay. Restaurants only have pick-up, non-casino hotels can open, stores open for 50% capacity, masks required and sanitation stations at the door. Casinos and casino hotels closed until at least the end of May. Every shopper must sign their name, phone number and the date and time of their visit in case tracking becomes necessary. Elective surgery is slowly returning. I'm pretty proud of our little town. I haven't been out since March 18. Getting old...

kbadeau · ‎05-02-2020

Sweden looks terrible compared to
Scandinavia; I believe the nether lands is also not great, but they’re both much lower than Italy, Spain, and France on the deaths per million graphs?