Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Luce N wrote:

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Bill H wrote:

Luce, anything is possible. This disease is complicated by issues of politics and money and the fact that a PhD from Google University qualifies one as an expert on any topic one wishes. Gatherings create opportunities for transmission. Larger gatherings create more opportunities. Social distancing standards may be horribly wrong if droplets from a sneeze can linger in the air for more than twenty seconds; initial research shows a time measured in double-digit minutes.We don't know what the right questions are, but we're getting better.

Italy has suffered horribly, as has Spain. The suffering in Europe will get worse, but change in nature. In the US we've found that several state Governors have made well-intentioned blunders that will reduce the food supply. That will not affect North America; it will cause hunger in other places. We don't yet know how deadly this virus is, but we know a great deal about the deadliness of poverty. Shutting down global commerce could kill far more people than COVID-19.

The problem is global, massive and unprecedented. It is also not understood completely by anyone, certainly including me. Today we learned that the US will next week have the ability to complete a million tests a week. That's six years to test everyone, and in six years poverty will have killed more people than any virus in history.

Sadly, there is no "Why don't you just..." solution.

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I know, Bill, anything is possible. It's a complex problem. Here are some hints I gathered here and there (not from Google, thank you very much) :

I have a Chinese friend who used to live in France, but now is in China, and she literally begs me to wear masks. Of course I don't expect her to be free to tell me exactly why, but I can guess there is a reason for it.

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I've read and heard for months that for those of us outside health care settings, masks offer the most protection when worn by those who are contagious. And I've read that in South Korea one of the factors that helped flatten the curve effectively was widespread use of masks by everyone regardless of whether or not they had symptoms, had been exposed, etc. It destigmatized mask use and helped minimize transmission by people who were unknowingly infected.

[petra_r]

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Phyllis G wrote:

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I've read and heard for months that for those of us outside health care settings, masks offer the most protection when worn by those who are contagious. And I've read that in South Korea one of the factors that helped flatten the curve effectively was widespread use of masks by everyone regardless of whether or not they had symptoms, had been exposed, etc. It destigmatized mask use and helped minimize transmission by people who were unknowingly infected.

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Totally!! I think we'll all be running around in masks in public for some time... If we ever go out in public again, that is. I might just stay where I am, now I have figured out how to get everything I could possibly need or want online. That is one scary side effect of this whole thing. The longer I am away from people, the less I actually want to be around them....

Italy figues were a bit down from yesterday. Hopefully carrying on that way.

Germany now had 7 days of new recoveries being higher than new infections so they peaked and are very well on their way to start easing out of lockdown early May.

Graphs in the morning.

Stay happy and safe everyone.

[versailles]

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 57: Remdesivir Treatment Update and Can UV-C Disinfect Public Spaces?

[kbadeau]

The way most places are releasing the data is frustrating to me. The US curve will be alarming just because we are so big. Italy has spikes because some days they test tens of thousands; others, not so many. No one seems to say "today we have 10 cases, yesterday we had 8." Or even just what percent the growth is.

I want it to say my county had x cases today, x yesterday, an increase of x percent. Even my whole state isn't particularly relevant if none of us are going outside of our counties.

Last Sunday they started giving us zip code data. I was eager to see the numbers. They break it down like this:

Case Count 0

Case Count 1-5

Case Count 6-10

Case Count more than 10

Seriously. That's it. I live in an urban area. EVERY zip code has more than 10. But is it 200? Or 11?

So frustrating.

[kbadeau]

Also look at our graph. Do they test very few people on the weekend or do they test a lot but don't have time to report results until Monday?

[vsalinitro]

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Kelly B wrote:

No one seems to say "today we have 10 cases, yesterday we had 8." Or even just what percent the growth is.

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Here in New Zealand they do exactly that, we have daily briefings at 1pm with the updated numbers and a summary of cases per region. They also count Confirmed and Probable cases (A probable case is one without a positive laboratory result, but which is treated like a confirmed case based on its exposure history and clinical symptoms.).

I guess it's a lot easier to do since we're roughly 5 millions inhabitants.

[petra_r]

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Kelly B wrote:

The way most places are releasing the data is frustrating to me. The US curve will be alarming just because we are so big. Italy has spikes because some days they test tens of thousands; others, not so many. No one seems to say "today we have 10 cases, yesterday we had 8." Or even just what percent the growth is.

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That's why I started to track the number of tests for Italy as well. A big drop in cases along with a drop inn tests just means they found less infected people, not that there WERE less... I pay attention to the percentage of people who tested positive. Tests are crucial. The more tests, the better. There is no denying that more testing = less deaths. Less testing = more deaths. It's a no-brainer.

Italy last 3 days	Number of tests	Number of reported cases	positive %
Wednesday	43.715	2.667	6.1 %
Thursday	60.099	3.786	6.3 %
Friday	65.705	3.493	5.3 %

Rene K wrote:

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 57: Remdesivir Treatment Update and Can UV-C Disinfect Public Spaces?

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Great video again! Fascinating stuff with Remdesivir, which could actually be a game changer if it actually turns out to work the way this small experiment suggests! That said, it may not be suitable to just give to everyone with symptoms, I found the last paragraph of this article a bit scary: 

"That being said, about 25% of patients receiving it have severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% demonstrated evidence of liver damage on lab tests."

That might suggest that even if it works well to combat the virus, it may only be suitable to be used in the most severe cases, because at that stage side effects are the least of anyone's worry.

Obviosuly nobody can tell if those "side effects" are really caused by the Remdesivir, which was found SAFE when used against Ebola (but ineffective.)

In short: We dont know (yet)

Today's graphs. 

[versailles]

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Petra R wrote:

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Great video again! Fascinating stuff with Remdesivir, which could actually be a game changer if it actually turns out to work the way this small experiment suggests! 

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Another topic discussed in the video is UV-C (ultraviolet light type C) for sanitizing. Medcram says it's innocuous which is why it could be easy and efficient to use in public spaces to kill airborne or landed viruses. I've read elsewhere that it is actually unsafe, so I don't know.

Thing is, UV-C is a high frequency ultraviolet light and higher the frequency, higher the energy, but lesser the penetration power. This is consistent with what Medcram says, which is that it cannot go deeper than the very upper layer of the skin. In any case it seems interesting.

[petra_r]

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Rene K wrote:

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In any case it seems interesting.

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Yes, I thought so too. UV light is used in aquariums to kill nasties in the water. I had a unit fitted in my tank as well! 

[petra_r]

Forgot Italy Update yesterday but it was more or less the same as the day before. The percentage positive tests were 5.6 %, compared to 5.3 % yesterday and 6.3 % the day before.

[petra_r]

And in case anyone was wondering how Sweden's "Let's keep most things running" policy is working out compared to its Skandinavian neighbours:

The answer is: Not so well.

[luce-neidert]

Sweden: that's terrible news. The good point is that this highlights the necessity of confinement, but the price to pay for this "experiment" is high.

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

And in case anyone was wondering how Sweden's "Let's keep most things running" policy is working out compared to its Skandinavian neighbours:

The answer is: Not so well.

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Tomorrow kindergarten reopen in Norway. Norwegians have been neglecting to keep their distance in the past two weeks and I expect the number of death to go up. Many students did travel home for Easter and I saw countless grandparents with their grandchilderen in the past days. Noone uses masks and people hardly ever keep their distance. The problem with the numbers is that noone is tested in Norway until it is too late.

[mwiggenhorn]

Our beaches reopen tomorrow.  We had the largest one day increase in cases yesterday (in Mississippi) but that might just be due to massive testing.  Our beaches are seldom crowded and especially since there are no tourists in town we should be okay.  Schools closed until next school year - no one knows if school will go back early.  (Normally they open in mid August).  I have to go to the doctor Thursday which will be my first trip to the Real World in 4 weeks.

[petra_r]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Tomorrow kindergarten reopen in Norway. Norwegians have been neglecting to keep their distance in the past two weeks and I expect the number of death to go up. 

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Still, at the moment Norway is doing well. Better than Germany as far as deaths go actually!

Mary W wrote:

Our beaches reopen tomorrow. Our beaches are seldom crowded and especially since there are no tourists in town we should be okay.  

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Uncrowded beaches don't pose a huge danger I don't think. 

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Mary W wrote:

 I have to go to the doctor Thursday which will be my first trip to the Real World in 4 weeks.

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It gets to the point where the whole concept of going to a crowded place appears such a weird concept.

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Mary W wrote:

We had the largest one day increase in cases yesterday (in Mississippi) but that might just be due to massive testing.  

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That's why I started calculating the actual percentage of tests with a positive result for Italy. The testing numbers have been up and down, so obviously the number of reported cases goes up and down, too.

Today's charts:

Next curves to watch out for: Turkey, and especially Russia, where the curve for reported cases is very steep indeed, but deaths are (so far) low. It looks like they are testing very aggressively, which has made all the difference in other countries to keep deaths low. We'll see.

[reinierb]

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@petra_r wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Tomorrow kindergarten reopen in Norway. Norwegians have been neglecting to keep their distance in the past two weeks and I expect the number of death to go up. 

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Still, at the moment Norway is doing well. Better than Germany as far as deaths go actually!

Mary W wrote:

Our beaches reopen tomorrow. Our beaches are seldom crowded and especially since there are no tourists in town we should be okay.  

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Uncrowded beaches don't pose a huge danger I don't think. 

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Mary W wrote:

 I have to go to the doctor Thursday which will be my first trip to the Real World in 4 weeks.

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It gets to the point where the whole concept of going to a crowded place appears such a weird concept.

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Mary W wrote:

We had the largest one day increase in cases yesterday (in Mississippi) but that might just be due to massive testing.  

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That's why I started calculating the actual percentage of tests with a positive result for Italy. The testing numbers have been up and down, so obviously the number of reported cases goes up and down, too.

Today's charts:

Next curves to watch out for: Turkey, and especially Russia, where the curve for reported cases is very steep indeed, but deaths are (so far) low. It looks like they are testing very aggressively, which has made all the difference in other countries to keep deaths low. We'll see.

Is there any clarity yet on why the death rate in Germany is so low compared to other EU countries? 

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[vsalinitro]

Petra maybe you'll be interested in this article.

[petra_r]

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Reinier B wrote:

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Is there any clarity yet on why the death rate in Germany is so low compared to other EU countries? 

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There are endless theories. I wouldn't say there is "clarity" though, no.

It seems that the key is a good health system and early, aggressive testing.

That said, some other European countries are doing even better than Germany when you look at deaths per Million population... they are simply not under the spotlight as much.

Look

On Our World In Data you can add countries to various graphs. Great stuff!!

Valerio S wrote:

Petra maybe you'll be interested in this article.

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You had to make me read Italian lol!

Great article and written clearly!

[versailles]

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Valerio S wrote:

Petra maybe you'll be interested in this article.

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You have no idea how frustrating it is when you can understand only about 25% of something that you really want to read 🙂

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Mary W wrote:

Our beaches reopen tomorrow.  We had the largest one day increase in cases yesterday (in Mississippi) but that might just be due to massive testing.  Our beaches are seldom crowded and especially since there are no tourists in town we should be okay.  Schools closed until next school year - no one knows if school will go back early.  (Normally they open in mid August).  I have to go to the doctor Thursday which will be my first trip to the Real World in 4 weeks.

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My relatives in the Florida Panhandle are very concerned that their beaches will re-open soon -- the decision is left to the counties in Florida -- and tourists will come flooding back. 

[petra_r]

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Phyllis G wrote:

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My relatives in the Florida Panhandle are very concerned that their beaches will re-open soon -- the decision is left to the counties in Florida -- and tourists will come flooding back. 

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Beaches are not the main problem.

What happens before people get to the beaches (travel etc) and what happens when people are there but not on the beach (hotels, bars, discos, clubs and so on) is where it gets passed on...

Rene, that's how I feel with so many articles in languages I don't speak understand well enough to join the blanks together.

[jr-translation]

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Rene K wrote:

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Valerio S wrote:

Petra maybe you'll be interested in this article.

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You have no idea how frustrating it is when you can understand only about 25% of something that you really want to read 🙂

 You are allowed to use machine translation for personal use.

[versailles]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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 You are allowed to use machine translation for personal use.

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I know, right? But when you speak French, Italian sounds so within reach...

[petra_r]

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Rene K wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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 You are allowed to use machine translation for personal use.

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I known, right? But when you speak French, Italian sounds so within reach...

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I can read simple French well enough to make sense of it. I've never officially learned French but having grown up near the French border we went to Straßbourg often and my best friend from when I was little moved to France so I was there quite a lot. Spanish less so but weirdly I understand clear spoken Spanish better than spoken French.

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Petra R wrote:

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Phyllis G wrote:

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My relatives in the Florida Panhandle are very concerned that their beaches will re-open soon -- the decision is left to the counties in Florida -- and tourists will come flooding back. 

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Beaches are not the main problem.

What happens before people get to the beaches (travel etc) and what happens when people are there but not on the beach (hotels, bars, discos, clubs and so on) is where it gets passed on...

Rene, that's how I feel with so many articles in languages I don't speak understand well enough to join the blanks together.

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Yes, the worry is people coming from out of town and flooding the local essential businesses, i.e. grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations. Local residents can avoid restaurants, bars, etc. but it won't do any good if a new wave of infection is brought into the community. It will be incredibly frustrating for those who have been sequestering for months, giving up all of their usual activities, if the floodgates open and they're again inundated with visitors.

[petra_r]

Italy reports the lowest number of new cases since March 13. The number of active cases declines for the first time. 

New cases 2,256

new deaths 454

The light at the end of the tunnel looks pretty real from where I'm sitting. 

🙂

[vsalinitro]

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Rene K wrote:

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Valerio S wrote:

Petra maybe you'll be interested in this article.

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You have no idea how frustrating it is when you can understand only about 25% of something that you really want to read 🙂

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Oh, I do! I had the exact same feeling when I started reading articles in German, it's getting better now, but sometimes it comes back and punches me in the face.

[wendy_writes]

Petra wrote "I can read simple French well enough to make sense of it. I've never officially learned French but having grown up near the French border we went to Straßbourg often and my best friend from when I was little moved to France so I was there quite a lot. Spanish less so but weirdly I understand clear spoken Spanish better than spoken French."

IMHO, while the languages both are Latin based, the Spanish use more vocal intonation and body language then the French.

[petra_r]

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Wendy C wrote:

Petra wrote "I can read simple French well enough to make sense of it. I've never officially learned French but having grown up near the French border we went to Straßbourg often and my best friend from when I was little moved to France so I was there quite a lot. Spanish less so but weirdly I understand clear spoken Spanish better than spoken French."

IMHO, while the languages both are Latin based, the Spanish use more vocal intonation and body language then the French.

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Spoken Spanish is closer to Italian than French. Good point about "Latin based"- I did learn Latin for 8 years at school.

Today's charts, which are looking pretty promising!

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

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Wendy C wrote:

Petra wrote "I can read simple French well enough to make sense of it. I've never officially learned French but having grown up near the French border we went to Straßbourg often and my best friend from when I was little moved to France so I was there quite a lot. Spanish less so but weirdly I understand clear spoken Spanish better than spoken French."

IMHO, while the languages both are Latin based, the Spanish use more vocal intonation and body language then the French.

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Spoken Spanish is closer to Italian than French. Good point about "Latin based"- I did learn Latin for 8 years at school.

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My personal observation is that if you meet someone with fluent Spanish but an Italian accent, he is from Argentina. I find spoken French easier to follow than written, while it is the other way around with Portuguese.

[m_terrazas]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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Wendy C wrote:

Petra wrote "I can read simple French well enough to make sense of it. I've never officially learned French but having grown up near the French border we went to Straßbourg often and my best friend from when I was little moved to France so I was there quite a lot. Spanish less so but weirdly I understand clear spoken Spanish better than spoken French."

IMHO, while the languages both are Latin based, the Spanish use more vocal intonation and body language then the French.

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Spoken Spanish is closer to Italian than French. Good point about "Latin based"- I did learn Latin for 8 years at school.

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My personal observation is that if you meet someone with fluent Spanish but an Italian accent, he is from Argentina. I find spoken French easier to follow than written, while it is the other way around with Portuguese.

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Both English and French, I can understand them (to say something) better written than spoken.
And I think it is because they do not "speak" (especially in English) what is written. I do not know if I explain.

[wendy_writes]

Because I studied French all through school I can read it and Spanish - certainly not fluently but adequately. Understanding both about  60-70% of the time/content. Speaking either > only when in-country. Gotta love immersion. 😉

Maria, English is illogical.  Pronunciation and grammar ...

[petra_r]

No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

The curves have been looking pretty much the same lately anyway... 

Italy has seen a decrease of the currently infected people for the second day running, and the lowest percentage of positive tests at 5.2% to date. We are expecting an announcement that some more restrictions will be lifted any day now. 

I am watching the Spanish numbers with some concern and am wondering whether they might have opened up a little too early and a bit much.

Meanwhile, I think the Swedish experiment of not doing much can probably safely be called a failure 😞

[wendy_writes]

Spain just extended the lockdown period thru mid-May and possibly further -

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52380654

[wendy_writes]

An astute insight why some US governors - Georgia's Kemp in particular - are so keen (anxious and antsy) to reopen ... and, IMHO, totally vile and despicable.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-21-2020?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4NzYzMDI5LCJwb3N0X2lk...

[petra_r]

SO, my data, which I had painstakingly collected every morning for weeks, is gone.

Rather than try to recreate it, I thought of something else. From now on, we will look at active cases only, because that best shows how the curve can go up and down. Because of the huge numbers in the US skewing everyone else's; I am doing one with, and one without the USA.

I started each curve at 25k current active cases.

[kbadeau]

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Petra R wrote:

No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

The curves have been looking pretty much the same lately anyway... 

Italy has seen a decrease of the currently infected people for the second day running, and the lowest percentage of positive tests at 5.2% to date. We are expecting an announcement that some more restrictions will be lifted any day now. 

I am watching the Spanish numbers with some concern and am wondering whether they might have opened up a little too early and a bit much.

Meanwhile, I think the Swedish experiment of not doing much can probably safely be called a failure 😞

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I keep googling Sweden to try to find out how much of a failure it is, but it's difficult. They do have far more fatalities than they "should" have, but I'm not and have never claimed to be an economist, so I don't know what the fallout will be for places like the U.S. where our economy has been pummeled. I do know that the last time around, we bailed out "Wall St instead of Main St" and the rich got richer and the prosperity gap widened. We at least have more people insured now than we did then, but when they talk about the cure being worse than the disease, does anyone know what kind of data (if any) they pull that from? It's hard for me to believe that sacrificing people now for the good of the economy/unknown amounts of people in the future is the wrong way to do it.

[kbadeau]

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Petra R wrote:

No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

The curves have been looking pretty much the same lately anyway... 

Italy has seen a decrease of the currently infected people for the second day running, and the lowest percentage of positive tests at 5.2% to date. We are expecting an announcement that some more restrictions will be lifted any day now. 

I am watching the Spanish numbers with some concern and am wondering whether they might have opened up a little too early and a bit much.

Meanwhile, I think the Swedish experiment of not doing much can probably safely be called a failure 😞

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If I were a conspiracy theorist I would think it's quite suspicious that your data has gone missing. Is Big Brother watching you?

[petra_r]

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Kelly B wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

No charts today because I can't find the excel book. 😞 Just an error message.

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If I were a conspiracy theorist I would think it's quite suspicious that your data has gone missing. Is Big Brother watching you?

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Oh no, this was complete and utter human incompetence (mine) - I really must get into the habit of autosaving stuff to the cloud.

But to be honest, they weren't really helping anymore.

I plan to teach myself how to convert the new data per function in excel into "per Million population" - which will then allow the US to be shown on a level playing field with the smaller countries. 

A far as "How much of a failure is Sweden" is concerned - this may help:  You can add or remove countries to compare. Unfortunately it's not on a timeline from outbreak, but it is representative as it compares Sweden to its Skandinavian neighbours per Million population.