Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[petra_r]

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Kelly B wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

OK, so NOW I actually am really in trouble.....

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It kind of sounds like they are restricting things like, say, wireless earbuds that I "need," to make sure they have enough space for real things like pet food, people food, and medical supplies. I am hoping your ordeal starts improving soon!

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Yes, you're right. I did what I keep telling others NOT to do. Read some bits and flew into a blind panic.

Isn't it amazing. Everything is going to hell in a handbasket and I'm quite calm and stay indoors and do my work and cuddle my cats and don't worry that much, but the second I think Amazon will stop delivering I fly into a blind panic...

[luce-neidert]

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Petra R wrote:

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Isn't it amazing. Everything is going to hell in a handbasket and I'm quite calm and stay indoors and do my work and cuddle my cats and don't worry that much, but the second I think Amazon will stop delivering I fly into a blind panic...

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Petra, don't tell me only Amazon sells dog food in Italy! Do a little research, you'll probably find some other way of feeding your darling pets. There's no reason to panic - yet!

[petra_r]

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Luce N wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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Isn't it amazing. Everything is going to hell in a handbasket and I'm quite calm and stay indoors and do my work and cuddle my cats and don't worry that much, but the second I think Amazon will stop delivering I fly into a blind panic...

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Petra, don't tell me only Amazon sells dog food in Italy! Do a little research, you'll probably find some other way of feeding your darling pets. There's no reason to panic - yet!

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I agree, but my thinking was 3 fold:

1. my dog has a very sensitive tummy and any change in diet causes problems. I have not seen (but haven't looked seriously yet) my particular brand elsewhere
2. When Amazon stops delivering, others will, too (which may be correct or completely false, it was just a worry)
3. It is always the same driver who delivers my pet food and he is the only driver who actually drives into the carpark provided I open the big gate for him and unloads at my gate to the back garden. As I buy pet food in bulk (12 kg bags) that makes all the difference for me as I don't have to get huge heavy boxes from the road to my back gate which is quite a distance.

Also, in situations such as this, anything carrying on as normal is very comforting. All through this I've been thinking "As long as deliveries carry on and Amazon exists, I can ride this out as long as it takes."

That's why this announcement rattled me so much.

[luce-neidert]

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Petra R wrote:

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No, my thinking was 3 fold:

1. my dog has a very sensitive tummy and any change in diet causes problems. I have not seen (but haven't looked seriously yet) my particular brand elsewhere
2. When Amazon stops delivering, others will, too (which may be correct or false, it was just a worry)
3. It is always the same driver who delivers my pet food and he is the only driver who actually drives into the carpark provided I open the big gate for him and unloads at my gate to the back garden. As I buy pet food in bulk (12 kg bags) that makes all the difference for me as I don't have to get huge heavy boxes from the road to my back gate which is quite a distance.
4. . 

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Well, I hope you won't have to change your habits, particularly if your doc has a sensitive tummy.

[petra_r]

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Luce N wrote:

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Well, I hope you won't have to change your habits, particularly if your doc has a sensitive tummy.

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Thanks Luce, looks like we'll be ok actually:

[colettelewis]

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Petra R wrote:

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Luce N wrote:

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Well, I hope you won't have to change your habits, particularly if your doc has a sensitive tummy.

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Thanks Luce, looks like we'll be ok actually:

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___________________________

Good news in a pretty bad scenario, but it must  be nmad difficult to keep cheerful in the face of it. 

[mtngigi]

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@petra_r wrote:

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Kelly B wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

OK, so NOW I actually am really in trouble.....

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It kind of sounds like they are restricting things like, say, wireless earbuds that I "need," to make sure they have enough space for real things like pet food, people food, and medical supplies. I am hoping your ordeal starts improving soon!

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Yes, you're right. I did what I keep telling others NOT to do. Read some bits and flew into a blind panic.

Isn't it amazing. Everything is going to hell in a handbasket and I'm quite calm and stay indoors and do my work and cuddle my cats and don't worry that much, but the second I think Amazon will stop delivering I fly into a blind panic...

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Petra,

Here are a few doggie treat recipes I've made .... hopefully you have some of the ingredients and can make some. It's actually pretty easy to wing it with these recipes if you don't have all the ingredients (dogs aren't too fussy). The first one "Bacon Bites" is one that dogs really seem to love, but then again, they'll eat anything.

Just in case.  (hope the attachment works)

[petra_r]

Situation as of 6 am (UTC) Wednesday, 18th of March.

Everyone following or ahead of Italy's curve more or less, except the UK who just aren't testing...

Click to view, and as usual "Day 1" is the day where reported cases reached between 75 and 85.

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

Situation as of 6 am (UTC) Wednesday, 18th of March.

Everyone following or ahead of Italy's curve more or less, except the UK who just aren't testing...

Click to view, and as usual "Day 1" is the day where reported cases reached between 75 and 85.

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The official number for Norway is 1471 but they are only testing people in important positions or if they are severely sick. At the moment 12200 people are home on a sick leave related to the coronavirus. This does not included people that have to stay home because kindergartens and schools are closed. So if only 10% if these untested people are infected the number of cases doubles.

[petra_r]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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The official number for Norway is 1471 but they are only testing people in important positions or if they are severely sick. At the moment 12200 people are home on a sick leave related to the coronavirus. This does not included people that have to stay home because kindergartens and schools are closed. So if only 10% if these untested people are infected the number of cases doubles.

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Yes, the official figures are hugely influenced by how much testing is done. But that's the only info I have available so it is the only info I can use.

The curves are still somewhat comparable. I am looking for the point where it starts to level off (less new cases per day, more recoveries, then more recoveries than deaths in Italy. Once Italy reaches those points, other countries have some point of reference, and that then doesn't necessarily depend on what the real figures are, it's all about the timeline and the trajectory, if that makes sense.

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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The official number for Norway is 1471 but they are only testing people in important positions or if they are severely sick. At the moment 12200 people are home on a sick leave related to the coronavirus. This does not included people that have to stay home because kindergartens and schools are closed. So if only 10% if these untested people are infected the number of cases doubles.

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Yes, the official figures are hugely influenced by how much testing is done. But that's the only info I have available so it is the only info I can use.

The curves are still somewhat comparable. I am looking for the point where it starts to level off (less new cases per day, more recoveries, then more recoveries than deaths in Italy. Once Italy reaches those points, other countries have some point of reference, and that then doesn't necessarily depend on what the real figures are, it's all about the timeline and the trajectory, if that makes sense.

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Another 2500 people went on sick leave since yesterday.

[petra_r]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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The official number for Norway is 1471 but they are only testing people in important positions or if they are severely sick. At the moment 12200 people are home on a sick leave related to the coronavirus. This does not included people that have to stay home because kindergartens and schools are closed. So if only 10% if these untested people are infected the number of cases doubles.

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Yes, the official figures are hugely influenced by how much testing is done. But that's the only info I have available so it is the only info I can use.

The curves are still somewhat comparable. I am looking for the point where it starts to level off (less new cases per day, more recoveries, then more recoveries than deaths in Italy. Once Italy reaches those points, other countries have some point of reference, and that then doesn't necessarily depend on what the real figures are, it's all about the timeline and the trajectory, if that makes sense.

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Another 2500 people went on sick leave since yesterday.

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Yes, but that includes those who are 1) scared 2) lazy 3) hypochondriacs 4) have a hangover 5) suffer from something completely unrelated etc etc.

In countries with statutory sick-pay, it's hard to assign a direct, let alone accurate correlation between 2500 people not going to work and the spread of the CV

[jr-translation]

The overall situation is calm but there are many people unsure how it will be AC. Norwegians have the tendency to be as indebt as possible usually booking there next vacation before paying for the last. Since I am not very likely to get fired I do not share these concerns.

The toilet paper is still available in shops.

But I had a clash today when I refused to use chloride to clean my hands after I just washed them with soap.

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Christine A wrote:

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Maria T wrote:

Actually, they are already imposing fines.
At least to Spaniards. I don't know if they will dare with the "revered tourists"

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LOL - I doubt very much that the people in that video are "revered" in Spain.

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They are no doubt despised but the money they spend is critical to resort economies.

[petra_r]

Tonights grim stats: Another 3526 new cases and 345 deaths in Italy in the last 24 hours.

One every 4 minutes and a few seconds. About how long it takes me to write this post. One person died in Italy from CV while I wrote this post.

Oh, and they want to turn our local hospital into one of the CV-only hospitals, which will put our own nurses and doctors at grave risk and mean that should anyone be unfortunate enough to be in a car accident or fall ill from something else, they face a long journey to a non CV-only hospital.

In fact, if you fall gravely ill or are in a serious accident in Italy right now, you might as well stay home and take your chances on living or dying, because the health system can't even begin to cope. I have never needed hospitalisation in all my life, I sure hope I'm not going to start right now....

I can't wait for the curve to start to stabilize and the daily new cases to go down, at least then there will be a light at the end of the tunnel! 

I'm trying to stay cheerful.

As the Italians say :italy:❤️ ANDRÀ TUTTO BENE :italy:❤️ (Everything will work itself out in the end)

[ravi_iitian]

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Petra R wrote:

Tonights grim stats: Another 3526 new cases and 345 deaths in Italy in the last 24 hours.

I am amazed that India with its 1.4 billion people and massive population density in urban areas has had only 3 deaths due to CV.

I keep telling my children to be wary of the figures being declared by the government.

[petra_r]

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Ravindra B wrote:

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I am amazed that India with its 1.4 billion people and massive population density in urban areas has had only 3 deaths due to CV.

... so far

[ravi_iitian]

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Petra R wrote:

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Ravindra B wrote:

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I am amazed that India with its 1.4 billion people and massive population density in urban areas has had only 3 deaths due to CV.

... so far

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Even "so far" is surprising.

[gaba276]

As the epidemic turned into a pandemic, I saw two possible scenarios. In the first and optimistic one, working-from-home freelancers would benefit from the current situation and the demand for remote workers would increase. In the second and probably realistic one, ongoing projects would get completed or paused, while new incoming projects would get postponed or cancelled.

This definitely is connected to the type of work a freelancer might provide, but concern and uncertainty affect small local businesses and big players alike, and hence our clients.

My email almost went radio silent, jobs I would consider applying to are somewhere between scarce and absent, and I barely hear from the clients I have a somewhat constant working relationship with. 

Any thoughts? What have you guys been experiencing?

[martina_plaschka]

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Gabriela L wrote:

As the epidemic turned into a pandemic, I saw two possible scenarios. In the first and optimistic one, working-from-home freelancers would benefit from the current situation and the demand for remote workers would increase. In the second and probably realistic one, ongoing projects would get completed or paused, while new incoming projects would get postponed or cancelled.

This definitely is connected to the type of work a freelancer might provide, but concern and uncertainty affect small local businesses and big players alike, and hence our clients.

My email almost went radio silent, jobs I would consider applying to are somewhere between scarce and absent, and I barely hear from the clients I have a somewhat constant working relationship with. 

Any thoughts? What have you guys been experiencing?

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I think many companies let their people stay home, or work from home, so it's likely that many projects get postponed at this time. 

[jr-translation]

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Gabriela L wrote:

As the epidemic turned into a pandemic, I saw two possible scenarios. In the first and optimistic one, working-from-home freelancers would benefit from the current situation and the demand for remote workers would increase. In the second and probably realistic one, ongoing projects would get completed or paused, while new incoming projects would get postponed or cancelled.

This definitely is connected to the type of work a freelancer might provide, but concern and uncertainty affect small local businesses and big players alike, and hence our clients.

My email almost went radio silent, jobs I would consider applying to are somewhere between scarce and absent, and I barely hear from the clients I have a somewhat constant working relationship with. 

Any thoughts? What have you guys been experiencing?

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I have been busy the past few months and have been trying to slow down a bit in the past weeks. Having a 4-year-old at home for the next few weeks will slow down me as well. I decided for myself to use spare time to do some trainings and to get prepared for after the pandemic.

But my guess is that you as a medical student will soon call to work with real people.

[kristinelupoy]

There are an advantage and disadvantages in Freelancing during the Corona pandemic.  We, freelancers, have the capability to earn during this pandemic since we are working at home. We're 100% safe from whatever happens in the outside. But the thing is what happens to our clients. We can't tell if they'll still be operating during this phenomenon. There's still a lot of possibilities that we will be earning less.

[petra_r]

Today in Italy... 4207 new cases and 475 people died in the last 24 hours. This is now one every 3 minutes.

This is now mainly due to there being simply no more hospital beds or respirators or doctors or nurses. People die, sedated, in corridors.  One every 3 minutes. They are buried alone. No funerals. No saying goodbye.

[colettelewis]

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Petra R wrote:

Today in Italy... 4207 new cases and 475 people died in the last 24 hours. This is now one every 3 minutes.

This is now mainly due to there being simply no more hospital beds or respirators or doctors or nurses. People die, sedated, in corridors.  One every 3 minutes. They are buried alone. No funerals. No saying goodbye.

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____________________________

Petra,

There seems to be just a gleam of hope with the treatment (no vaccine) with some positive results with chloroquine that has been used for malaria. We can only hope. 

In Italy, do you have any idea what the percentage is between young, middle-aged, and elderly?

[ravi_iitian]

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Nichola L wrote:

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There seems to be just a gleam of hope with the treatment (no vaccine) with some positive results with chloroquine that has been used for malaria. We can only hope. 

"Covid-19 patients will be given two drugs previously used to treat AIDS and malaria at about 50 hospitals in Australia, with tests expected to start by the end of this month. The drugs reportedly eradicated the virus in lab tests."

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/australia-lab-to-human-test-reputed-covid-19-cure/?fbclid=IwAR264P02Qz...

[luce-neidert]

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Ravindra B wrote:

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Nichola L wrote:

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There seems to be just a gleam of hope with the treatment (no vaccine) with some positive results with chloroquine that has been used for malaria. We can only hope. 

"Covid-19 patients will be given two drugs previously used to treat AIDS and malaria at about 50 hospitals in Australia, with tests expected to start by the end of this month. The drugs reportedly eradicated the virus in lab tests."

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/australia-lab-to-human-test-reputed-covid-19-cure/?fbclid=IwAR264P02Qz...

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There are problems with this treatment, apparently you can't be given it if you have a heart condition.

[petra_r]

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Nichola L wrote:

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There seems to be just a gleam of hope with the treatment (no vaccine) with some positive results with chloroquine that has been used for malaria. We can only hope. 

Yes, also something called remdesivir

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Nichola L wrote:

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In Italy, do you have any idea what the percentage is between young, middle-aged, and elderly?

Not for Italy specifically, but it's pretty clear that the older you are, the more likely you are to die from it.

Also, men are FAR more likely to die than women if they catch it, as are smokers v. non smokers, and obviously any preexisting conditions don't help.

Sources

1. The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) - China CCDC, February 17 2020
2. Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Pdf] - World Health Organization, Feb. 28, 2020

[ravi_iitian]

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Petra R wrote:

People die, sedated, in corridors.  One every 3 minutes. They are buried alone. No funerals. No saying goodbye.

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Tragic.

[patience-saduwa]

Really sorry to hear that Petra....its a very terrible situation in your country and worldwide. Stay strong; our prayers are with you.

This too shall pass.

[feed_my_eyes]

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Gabriela L wrote:

As the epidemic turned into a pandemic, I saw two possible scenarios. In the first and optimistic one, working-from-home freelancers would benefit from the current situation and the demand for remote workers would increase. In the second and probably realistic one, ongoing projects would get completed or paused, while new incoming projects would get postponed or cancelled.

This definitely is connected to the type of work a freelancer might provide, but concern and uncertainty affect small local businesses and big players alike, and hence our clients.

My email almost went radio silent, jobs I would consider applying to are somewhere between scarce and absent, and I barely hear from the clients I have a somewhat constant working relationship with. 

Any thoughts? What have you guys been experiencing?

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I think it'll depend on which industries you serve as well as the type of work that you do. Anyone who's been working with, say, the entertainment or tourism/hospitality industries is going to experience a huge slow-down. It might be worthwhile to consider rearranging our profiles (if possible) in order to appeal to industries that are more likely to keep hiring. I think that I should be okay, since I mainly have workaholic corporate clients who will keep going from their home offices, no matter what happens.

We're also going to see a lot of new freelancers as people are laid off from their jobs; experienced freelancers probably won't be affected that much, but newbies will have a lot more competition.

[boshoffirene]

Number of cases has doubled within 24 hours in my country - 53 to 116. And rising.

[boshoffirene]

Ha! And the latest update shows over a thousand and rising. One death thus far. One a side note - I think it is probably more. Many people in more rural areas have no access to health care services. 

[jr-translation]

So they just share the information that the average age of the people dying due to CV in Norway is 89. I bet there will be tons of younger people catching it in the next few days. Meanwhile our local hospital closed for everything but CV. The first babies have been born at home (not problems so far) but there are people that usually go there 3 times per week for dialysis who now have to find another hospital with capacity for them.

[petra_r]

Good morning. We now have Spain ahead of the trajectory of Italy, (meaning there are more cases in Spain now than there were in Italy at the same point in time) and Germany fast catching up, as are the USA. I expect both to join Spain ahead of the Italian curve before the day is over. UK numbers still looking relatively low

Whilst the number of confirmed cases is not so reliable and an indication only, I had a look at the number of deaths for those countries to date.

The deaths for Italy and Spain are shockingly high, what puzzles me is that the number of deaths in Germany is (in comparison) so very low, literally a fraction of anyone else's with a relevant number. Italy had 827 deaths 19 days after my starting point (75 to 85 confirmed cases) compared to Germany at just 28 so far.

[m_terrazas]

¡Muchas gracias por los gráficos Petra!

Mods, don't erase the post, please 🙂

[colettelewis]

France now has over 9000 confirmed cases and 148 deaths. 

[petra_r]

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Nichola L wrote:

France now has over 9000 confirmed cases and 148 deaths. 

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Yes. I've added France to the graph for tomorrow, but update it in the morning when the US numbers are in.

Stay safe!

Christine A wrote:

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I managed to fly to Canada right before they closed their borders, so I'm following events here more closely now. Interestingly, Canada (population 37.5 million) has carried out more tests than the U.S. (population 327 million), once you add in the figures for Quebec. Just one example of how the number of reported cases in each country aren't necessarily giving an accurate picture of the situation.

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I know. The numbers of the cases are not that representative, but the trajectory is. The numbers of deaths are more accurate, but then there are such ridiculous differences in the death rate for some weird reason that it is hard to predict anything from them overall. 

Glad you made it into Canada!

[petra_r]

Ugh

Today's numbers for Italy...  another 5,322 new cases and 427 people died in 24 hours.

This HAS to start levelling off soon. Please.

[colettelewis]

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Petra R wrote:

Ugh

Today's numbers for Italy...  another 5,322 new cases and 427 people died in 24 hours.

This HAS to start levelling off soon. Please.

_____________________

And France is now at 10,550 (not an accurate figure as it keeps moving up). And the number of deaths has also doubled to about 350. 

It will pass - courage. 

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