Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[luce-neidert]

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Petra R wrote:

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What is the plan? It seems to be a very early point in time to go into total lockdown? 

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Wouldn't early total lockdown be the best policy? Letting people go on infecting each other is not very wise. From what I understood, the lockdown is aimed at slowing down the number of people who need intensive care in hospitals, as there are not enough hospital beds, carers, ventilators... to look after massive number of patients.

[boshoffirene]

Petra,

Our problem is relatively unique. With our history, rioting and distrusting the govt. is the norm. Plus we are a first world/third world mix. Our healthcare services in rural areas are just about non-existent, with the older population prevalent in these areas. Our healthcare is just not geared up to deal with this if it spreads nation-wide. Then take into consideration we have basically open borders with Mozambique and Zimbabwe - two countries that have never recovered from their wars and these people streaming into our country looking for work...plus the ruling party that has, for decades, stripped all state-owned ventures of their capital to enrich an entitled few...and you are sitting on a time bomb. So taking these, and many other factors into consideration, the best and only thing our govt could do at this time was total lockdown. The latest is that people have been asked not to move out of their homes at all for the next week except for dire emergencies. This is why the chickens arrived before we were 100% ready for them. We would not have been able to get them after Thursday and why they came a week earlier than planned. 

On a brighter note - here's a picture of Petra (the stately one with the lovely grey neck markings) and Saartjie doing their thing.

The stately Petra le Chick with her beautiful grey neck feathers and her pal Saartjie.

[petra_r]

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Luce N wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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What is the plan? It seems to be a very early point in time to go into total lockdown? 

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Wouldn't early total lockdown be the best policy? Letting people go on infecting each other is not very wise. From what I understood, the lockdown is aimed at slowing down the number of people who need intensive care in hospitals, as there are not enough hospital beds, carers, ventilators... to look after massive number of patients.

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The best (Tried and proven) policy is aggressive, widespread early testing of as many people as humanly possible and strictly isolating anyone who tests positive and their contacts. That flattens the curve without shutting everything down totally, as seen in South Korea. 

The problem is that you can't lock down indefinately because when you do that, the economy collapses completely.  Very early lockdown flattens the curve but also means that lockdown has to go on much longer. Most European countries waited way too long before locking down, but I am not sure locking down this early is sustainable long term.

[luce-neidert]

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Petra R wrote:

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The best (Tried and proven) policy is aggressive, widespread early testing of as many people as humanly possible and strictly isolating anyone who tests positive and their contacts. That flattens the curve without shutting everything down totally, as seen in South Korea. 

The problem is that you can't lock down indefinately because when you do that, the economy collapses completely.  Very early lockdown flattens the curve but also means that lockdown has to go on much longer. Most European countries waited way too long before locking down, but I am not sure locking down this early is sustainable long term.

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That's probably true. However, in many countries, large quantitities of tests were not available (France, for example). Also, there is the mystery of this French 16 years old teenager that died recently: she had tested negative twice.

[petra_r]

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Luce N wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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The best (Tried and proven) policy is aggressive, widespread early testing of as many people as humanly possible and strictly isolating anyone who tests positive and their contacts. That flattens the curve without shutting everything down totally, as seen in South Korea. 

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That's probably true. However, in many countries, large quantitities of tests were not available (France, for example). Also, there is the mystery of this French 16 years old teenager that died recently: she had tested negative twice.

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I've seen one news report of a huge number of tests from one particular supplier being sent back in Spain as they only detected 30% of positives...

I also think that all governments are responsible for there not being enough tests available. Had they heeded the warnings from epidemologists in time, tests would have been available.

How come South Korea had them?

[boshoffirene]

Yep @ the testing. And that is another things...there are just NOT enough for everyone to get tested. Plus a sizeable portion of the population just do not take this seriously. To be perfectly candid, I honestly believe our stats are much higher than what is officially given.

[lysis10]

awww yeah just dropping this here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52076856

I can't do much cardio because of muscle loss but yer gurl bought some creatine and only has to hold out for 10 days. Just 8 more days to go. I predict day 5 of no lifting will be total craziness for me. 

I can't be the only gymbro here. I know Tom Z is a gymrat. Tom Z, you taking your creatine, brah? I only built 3 pounds of muscle and I'm just gonna an hero if I lose it all over this craziness. 

[petra_r]

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Jennifer M wrote:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52076856

I can't do much cardio because of muscle loss but yer gurl bought some creatine and only has to hold out for 10 days. Just 8 more days to go.

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Thanks for the link! Lots of places have switched to teaching / training with online instructors which isn't the same but better than nothing! My friend does her Flameno classes in her living room these days.

I hate to break it to you, but I doubt your gym will reopen in 8 days. That would be insane. On the current trajectory at least, and I see no sign of anything that will could possibly break that trajectory, that is most unlikely- (DON'T shoot the messenger...)

Italy's numbers are out:  New confirmed cases today: 5,974 and again a brutal death toll, just below yesterday's at 889, one every minute and a half or just over. The total number of deaths is now above 10,000

At least the number of new infections is no longer rising every day and more people are recovering. So that's good.

Ridiculously, the way the media here report the total new cases is by taking new confirmed infections and subtracting the number of recovered people and the deaths. This means that when more people die, the number looks better because they are no longer counted in that daily number. I figured that out because the numbers I saw on the news did not match up with the data I use (The stats reported to the WHO) - so I sat through the daily press conference in Italian and that's how I found out.

[vsalinitro]

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@petra_r wrote:

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Italy's numbers are out:  New confirmed cases today: 5,974 and again a brutal death toll, just below yesterday's at 889, one every minute and a half or just over. The total number of deaths is now above 10,000

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I just read this "interesting" article about the number of cases in Italy:

"According to the Institute for International Political Studies, the currently positive people in Italy are in the order of 530,000, with the lethality rate at 1.1% against the current over 10%"

Here is the link to the article (sorry it's in Italian)

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/coronavirus-l-ispi-550mila-contagi-reali-e-tasso-letalita-all-114per...

[petra_r]

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Valerio S wrote:

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Petra wrote:

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Italy's numbers are out:  New confirmed cases today: 5,974 and again a brutal death toll, just below yesterday's at 889, one every minute and a half or just over. The total number of deaths is now above 10,000

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I just read this "interesting" article about the number of cases in Italy:

"According to the Institute for International Political Studies, the currently positive people in Italy are in the order of 530,000, with the lethality rate at 1.1% against the current over 10%"

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I think that's overestimated, but sure, the "real" numbers are far higher and that is probably the case in most countries, which is why it's so important that people are kept apart for now. The lethality rate is sure as hell wrong, we've already had over 10,000 die.

Lethality won't be confirmed until this is all over. At this stage, even guessing at it is futile.

I really get near violent impulses every time a journalist mentions "herd immunity" - that was the faulty premise the UK originally based their response on before having to do a rapid and embarrassing U-Turn after the global scientific community reacted by screaming or falling over laughing or assuming it was satire.

Anyway... here are today's charts

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Jennifer M wrote:

awww yeah just dropping this here:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52076856

I can't do much cardio because of muscle loss but yer gurl bought some creatine and only has to hold out for 10 days. Just 8 more days to go. I predict day 5 of no lifting will be total craziness for me. 

I can't be the only gymbro here. I know Tom Z is a gymrat. Tom Z, you taking your creatine, brah? I only built 3 pounds of muscle and I'm just gonna an hero if I lose it all over this craziness. 

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Petra is right, you should prepare yourself for the near-certainty the gym won't be re-opening any time soon. 
https://www.ajc.com/news/hard-hit-georgia-virus-expected-linger/AYMvVN9SIq8A0RUgUzIt5O/?ecmp=dekalbc...

Meanwhile, maybe a little perspective will help. One of my best friends has two daughters-in-law who are nurses in Atlanta. One is at a major suburban hospital and feels OK so far in terms of her own ability to care for patients while staying protected. She has three children aged 9 mos to 4 yrs. The other is a peds nurse at a major children's hospital. They are rationing PPE already (gowns and masks) and re-using a set for the same patient throughout a shift instead of discarding after each patient encounter as intended. She changes out of her scrubs at the end of her shift and on arriving home, walks straight to the shower. She hopes and prays these measures will protect her husband and her 18-month old son from anything she might bring home. Both nurses and their husbands (my friend's sons) are resigned to the near-certainty they will be infected at some point. They have banished all grandparents for the duration (which is tricky because two grandmothers, including my friend, have been linchpins in their routine child care arrangements). It won't surprise me if, at some point, they farm out the children to aunts who don't work in health care.

The more people move about and share spaces, the more rapidly and widely the virus spreads. There is mounting evidence that there are more asymptomatic cases than suspected earlier. That means more people spreading it while having no idea they are carrying it. (https://nyti.ms/2UAodz6) 

ETA: 56% of confirmed cases in Georgia are people 18-59 years old.  https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

[petra_r]

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Phyllis G wrote:

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There is mounting evidence that there are more asymptomatic cases than suspected earlier. That means more people spreading it while having no idea they are carrying it.

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This is very true. Iceland are testing aggressively and widely at random, as well as of course suspected cases, and they find that half the people that test positive and are actively spreading it have NO symptoms (yet).

THe single most dangerous group are people with no or very slight symptoms because they carry on going about their lives as usual, infecting others, and those infect others and especially the vulnerable people who will become gravely ill with permanent problems or die.

[moonraker]

Surely there's also an upside to all these asymptomatic cases? Being that we're closer to herd immunity? 

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Jamie F wrote:

Surely there's also an upside to all these asymptomatic cases? Being that we're closer to herd immunity? 

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One could hope. But they haven't yet established that recovering from Covid-19 confers immunity. That, like practically every other query about the disease, leads us back to the spectacularly inadequate availability of testing. In any case, herd immunity is not going to protect us from this virus any more than it does from flu viruses. Our salvation lies in a critical mass of people (i.e. virtually everyone) practicing good infectious disease hygiene, and a vaccine.

[petra_r]

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Jamie F wrote:

Surely there's also an upside to all these asymptomatic cases? Being that we're closer to herd immunity? 

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Herd immunity in this context is nonsense.

It assumes that people who have had it are immune AND can't pass it on, and that it does not mutate.

The former remains to be seen, the second is unclear and the third has been debunked as nonsense.

[luce-neidert]

At the end of this crisis, it's going to be super interesting to compare all these policies. I guess it's also going to influence people's vote, as putting a weirdo in power is not too bad in "normal" times, but catastrophic in times such as these.

[petra_r]

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Luce N wrote:

At the end of this crisis, it's going to be super interesting to compare all these policies. 

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YES! I am watching Iceland with great interest.

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I guess it's also going to influence people's vote, as putting a weirdo in power is not too bad in "normal" times, but catastrophic in times such as these.

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Unfortunally, at least in the short term, a national crisis tends to boost the head of state, no matter how competently (or not) the crisis is managed.

[feed_my_eyes]

For Petra. 😉

[petra_r]

More light appearing in the distance, somewhere near the end of this very long Italian tunnel:

"Only" 5,217 new cases today, and 756 deaths. Whilst the deaths still make me shudder, they are down from previous days, and the new cases are no longer increasing day on day, there is a downward tendency, a wobbly one, but it's there. I expect them to start falling next week, and the deaths the week after, and the recoveries to go up and then we'll be on our way towards recovery.

Germany also reported a much lower number of cases than they did all week, but that happened last weekend too, so they may have been simply not reporting all cases over the weekend. French cases also look oddly low compared to previous days.

Graphs to come in the (my) morning as always.

[petra_r]

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Christine A wrote:

For Petra. 😉

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Wahahahahaha. BUT - on the plus side, I am teaching myself super interesting and useful skills. I even subscribed to DataCamp  to learn more about all the wonderful things we can do with data and how to visualize them beautifully and fascinating stuff like that. I have finally, DECADES after being told that I am naturally more gifted with numbers than words by an educational psychiatrist (hired by mother to figure why I was so cr*p at maths) and nearly dying with laughter, discovered a love for numbers and what they can do and mean.

Data is just so frigging cool. Who would have thought it!? (Other than Preston...)

[petra_r]

Good morning, World 

[versailles]

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Luce N wrote:

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Also, there is the mystery of this French 16 years old teenager that died recently: she had tested negative twice.

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COVID-19 tests can yield false negatives. I think the rate of false negatives is in the 30%-40%. This is in part what is causing the phenomenon of cured people believed to being reinfected.

[boshoffirene]

In my neck of the woods: 1208 confirmed, plus 2 deaths thus far. Please note I do NOT believe these figures to be accurate.

On a further downward note, the province I live in has the most confirmed cases. Probably because it is the most densely populated. 

[jr-translation]

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Irene B wrote:

In my neck of the woods: 1208 confirmed, plus 2 deaths thus far. Please note I do NOT believe these figures to be accurate.

On a further downward note, the province I live in has the most confirmed cases. Probably because it is the most densely populated. 

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It is probably only because they tested more than in other regions. But I think the only information that matters is that the numbers keep increasing. The city I live in (35k inhabitants) only confirmed 2 new infections last week. They tested less than 70 people last week and less than 300 in total (16 infections).

[mwiggenhorn]

I can't type much because I had shoulder surgery 2 1/2 weeks ago but here are the current statistics from my state.  Where I live is only 90 miles from New Orleans, so all these number will go up exponentially in the next weeks I suspect.  We are a fairly rural state, all the casinos and hotels closed a couple of weeks ago.  Most beaches are open,  but are being monitored by local police for adherence to social distancing. https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2020/03/29/the-latest-mississippi-coronavirus-cases-by-the-numbers...

[petra_r]

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Mary W wrote:

I can't type much because I had shoulder surgery 2 1/2 weeks ago 

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Ouch! Hope you recover full use of your typing ability very soon! 

[petra_r]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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But I think the only information that matters is that the numbers keep increasing. The city I live in (35k inhabitants) only confirmed 2 new infections last week. They tested less than 70 people last week and less than 300 in total (16 infections).

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I am not sure. To me what matters is that the newly infected people don't keep rising by more every day. 

Also the "current active cases" curve, which is confirmed cases minus deaths minus recoveries.  Once less people get newly infected than die and recover we are on the home stretch. I am nervously awaiting the numbers for Italy today to see if yesterday's relatively low number of new infections was real or under-reporting due to it being the weekend.

[versailles]

UK doctor who just recovered from COVID has things to say to decision makers:

[feed_my_eyes]

Meanwhile in London, people are still heading to work on overcrowded trains because their employers aren't letting them stay home, or they're self-employed/gig workers who have no hope of getting any benefit payments until June (if then). 😞

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9X-VRaPHA8

[petra_r]

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Rene K wrote:

UK doctor who just recovered from COVID has things to say to decision makers:

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That is very good!! If people don't want to hear it from a doctor, one who had it, who will they believe it from?

I am feeling a little giddy. Actually I am feeling terribly giddy. New cases in Italy down quite a lot, they have not risen by that "little" since the 18th, and there is now a pretty clear downward trend that can't be called an anomaly anymore! New cases reported today are "just" 4,050 (as compared to the 6,557 on the 21st of March, which will (hopefully) have been the peak of the new cases. We also saw the highest number of new recoveries at 1,590. At least now more people are recovering than dying. Today at least. One day at a time...

Sadly the death toll is still nothing short of brutal, at 812. But as the average time from infection to death is 14 days, they won't go down for a while yet. (The peak so far was 919 in a day, on the 27th.)

I am not trusting Germany's new cases yet, they look abnormally and unrealistically low, so waiting until the morning before I check again.

Spain looking better too, with the number of new cases falling yet again, as have the number of new deaths.

So, whilst I know it is still really bad for everyone and it'll get worse for most before it gets better, IT WILL GET BETTER!

Stay safe everyone!

[colettelewis]

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Petra R wrote:

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Rene K wrote:

UK doctor who just recovered from COVID has things to say to decision makers:

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That is very good!! If people don't want to hear it from a doctor, one who had it, who will they believe it from?

I am feeling a little giddy. Actually I am feeling terribly giddy. New cases in Italy down quite a lot, they have not risen by that "little" since the 18th, and there is now a pretty clear downward trend that can't be called an anomaly anymore! New cases reported today are "just" 4,050 (as compared to the 6,557 on the 21st of March, which will (hopefully) have been the peak of the new cases. We also saw the highest number of new recoveries at 1,590. At least now more people are recovering than dying. Today at least. One day at a time...

Sadly the death toll is still nothing short of brutal, at 812. But as the average time from infection to death is 14 days, they won't go down for a while yet. (The peak so far was 919 in a day, on the 27th.)

I am not trusting Germany's new cases yet, they look abnormally and unrealistically low, so waiting until the morning before I check again.

Spain looking better too, with the number of new cases falling yet again, as have the number of new deaths.

So, whilst I know it is still really bad for everyone and it'll get worse for most before it gets better, IT WILL GET BETTER!

Stay safe everyone!

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___________________________

And you too, stay safe. 

I think the death toll keeps rising because among the people infected there will invariably be those cases that worsen and will result in death. 

As to the UK, several major decision makers have already been taken ill - so presumably lesson learned (?).  In the UK's favour, they have set up huge hospitals with intensive care facilities that will be capable of receiving thousands of infected patients . Another thing (on the news at one today) is that they seem to have found a way of helping respiratory failure with something, other than ventilators, that are being produced by Formula 1 manufacturers. If these prove to be effective, then perhaps the death rate (everywhere) will be considerably reduced. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/f1-team-helps-build-new-uk-breathing-aid-for-covid-19-...

There may be some breakthroughs on the horizon. 

[kbadeau]

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Nichola L wrote:

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Petra R wrote:

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Rene K wrote:

UK doctor who just recovered from COVID has things to say to decision makers:

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That is very good!! If people don't want to hear it from a doctor, one who had it, who will they believe it from?

I am feeling a little giddy. Actually I am feeling terribly giddy. New cases in Italy down quite a lot, they have not risen by that "little" since the 18th, and there is now a pretty clear downward trend that can't be called an anomaly anymore! New cases reported today are "just" 4,050 (as compared to the 6,557 on the 21st of March, which will (hopefully) have been the peak of the new cases. We also saw the highest number of new recoveries at 1,590. At least now more people are recovering than dying. Today at least. One day at a time...

Sadly the death toll is still nothing short of brutal, at 812. But as the average time from infection to death is 14 days, they won't go down for a while yet. (The peak so far was 919 in a day, on the 27th.)

I am not trusting Germany's new cases yet, they look abnormally and unrealistically low, so waiting until the morning before I check again.

Spain looking better too, with the number of new cases falling yet again, as have the number of new deaths.

So, whilst I know it is still really bad for everyone and it'll get worse for most before it gets better, IT WILL GET BETTER!

Stay safe everyone!

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___________________________

And you too, stay safe. 

I think the death toll keeps rising because among the people infected there will invariably be those cases that worsen and will result in death. 

As to the UK, several major decision makers have already been taken ill - so presumably lesson learned (?).  In the UK's favour, they have set up huge hospitals with intensive care facilities that will be capable of receiving thousands of infected patients . Another thing (on the news at one today) is that they seem to have found a way of helping respiratory failure with something, other than ventilators, that are being produced by Formula 1 manufacturers. If these prove to be effective, then perhaps the death rate (everywhere) will be considerably reduced. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/f1-team-helps-build-new-uk-breathing-aid-for-covid-19-...

There may be some breakthroughs on the horizon. 

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Other than that good F1 news, that's where it seems the rest of us have fallen behind. I don't know how long it takes to make a ventilator, but we've known we're going to need more for some time. So why don't I hear of tons of them being produced anywhere?

[colettelewis]

Kelly, 

It is very new. So perhaps that is why, and also because this stilll has to be put to the test generally. A British doctor said this afternoon that this sort of innovation generally takes months to perfect, and  here they are intending to roll it out in days, so I think one still has to see the results.

ETA: And the burden of ventilator production seems to fall on China - perhaps a lesson to us all not to put all our eggs in one basket

[petra_r]

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Nichola L wrote:

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Another thing (on the news at one today) is that they seem to have found a way of helping respiratory failure with something, other than ventilators, that are being produced by Formula 1 manufacturers. If these prove to be effective, then perhaps the death rate (everywhere) will be considerably reduced. fixed link

There may be some breakthroughs on the horizon. 

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That is amazing! (I fixed the link)

Isn't it amazing what can be done when people work together with a "let's get this sh*t done attitude!?"

And this is typical of all that's best about Britain!

[colettelewis]

Thanks for fixing it Petra - I just noticed it! 

Yes - that is probably Britain's saving grace - when the chips are really down, and the wake-up call came almost too late... 

[kbadeau]

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Nichola L wrote:

Kelly, 

It is very new. So perhaps that is why, and also because this stilll has to be put to the test generally. A British doctor said this afternoon that this sort of innovation generally takes months to perfect, and  here they are intending to roll it out in days, so I think one still has to see the results.

ETA: And the burden of ventilator production seems to fall on China - perhaps a lesson to us all not to put all our eggs in one basket

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Yes, that's what I meant... the "old" vents. Every country except maybe China and Italy and Iran knew they were going to be needed, but it doesn't seem like anyone took any great action to get more in hand. But still hopefully every day there is new good news and less bad news, whether it's treatments that work, warm weather helping, people following protocol, fewer people being diagnosed, etc.

[petra_r]

This morning's charts

Other than the US, it's starting to slow down.

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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But I think the only information that matters is that the numbers keep increasing. The city I live in (35k inhabitants) only confirmed 2 new infections last week. They tested less than 70 people last week and less than 300 in total (16 infections).

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I am not sure. To me what matters is that the newly infected people don't keep rising by more every day. 

Also the "current active cases" curve, which is confirmed cases minus deaths minus recoveries.  Once less people get newly infected than die and recover we are on the home stretch. I am nervously awaiting the numbers for Italy today to see if yesterday's relatively low number of new infections was real or under-reporting due to it being the weekend.

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I was referring to SA. Also, what I meant is that you can not rely on the total number because they are not testing enough so we do not have the real number for most countries. All you can be sure of is that the number of infections is increasing in most countries but in most cases we have no idea how fast.

[reinierb]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Irene B wrote:

In my neck of the woods: 1208 confirmed, plus 2 deaths thus far. Please note I do NOT believe these figures to be accurate.

On a further downward note, the province I live in has the most confirmed cases. Probably because it is the most densely populated. 

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It is probably only because they tested more than in other regions. But I think the only information that matters is that the numbers keep increasing. The city I live in (35k inhabitants) only confirmed 2 new infections last week. They tested less than 70 people last week and less than 300 in total (16 infections).

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We really have no idea what the actual numbers are. Nonetheless, the Government is now launching a program in which at least 10 000 field workers will move around the country to do testing and general health checks in various areas in an attempt to get a better handle on what is happening on the ground. We are now at 1 326 confirmed cases, but some researchers believe the actual number is at leat several times that, hence the program to do more tests in more areas. 

[boshoffirene]

To add to what Reinier said:

The positive cases are from people who WENT to get tested. There is no aggressive testing taking place as yet, although it was announced last night that our govt intends to roll this out in the next few days. Total (known) deaths thus far = 3.

Our population demographic is the opposite of Italy with its larger older population and smaller youth base. Our youth base is very large. Jobs are scarcer than chicken teeth. Govt. has traditionally given business and other support only to a certain population demographic. Now with the virus, the &*( will hit the fan not only healthwise, but on all fronts. 

The worst is that certain (many,many,many) people refuse to adhere to the lockdown rules. They are spreading the virus to those most vulnerable. We are sitting on a fuse that has been ignited and is slowly burning its way towards the powder keg. When that little fizzle hits that keg, the shizzle is going to hit the fan big time. And this is in SA, the 'richest' country in the area.

Namibia, our one neighbour, has taken a pro-active approach. Botswana does what Botswana does, but like Namibia, their population is not as large and relatively spread out. Nobody really knows what is going on in Mozambique. But our neighbor to the north, Zimbabwe...well...their economy is just about non-existent, their healthcare workers are on strike, and they have a food shortage. We have tens of thousands of Zimbabwe illegals in our country. Nobody knows the exact amount. many want to/have returned home during the crises. It's relatively easy to slip over the border. That is another powder keg waiting to blow its lid. 

You cannot use a European mindset when talking about Africa. It just does not work.