Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[petra_r]

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Irene B wrote:

You cannot use a European mindset when talking about Africa. It just does not work. 

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You are right, and that sounds really scary 😞

[oquintela]

Daily New Cases Comparison 

[petra_r]

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Olga Q wrote:

Daily New Cases Comparison 

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That's great, but I wonder why it was abandoned on the 23nd? 

[jmlaidlaw]

I hope that not too many others who frequent this forum personally know anyone who is/has been seriously affected by the virus.

My husband's cousin (young, female, health worker) was infected, and has been recovering well. She lives and works in a U.S. "hotspot."

I am sad to also report that a dear, elderly friend of ours has come down with the Covid virus, and is (at this point) not expected to live long. She survived the Nazi Occupation of France, and her husband's father survived helping both Jews and gentiles escape the Nazis from southern France (and has been recognized as Righteous Among the Nations at Yad Vashem) -- helped on occasion by our friend's late husband -- but it looks as if this invader may well take her. I've been calling her every day, reading to her in French from the Bible (she speaks English fine but loves hearing French), and playing her favorite songs to her, over the phone.

She is a determined follower of U.S. politics, though. Before she lost her voice and went seriously downhill, she expressed a stubborn desire to survive long enough to vote in the U.S. November elections. Maybe that will be enough to keep her going! 

[petra_r]

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Janean L wrote:

She is a determined follower of U.S. politics, though. Before she lost her voice and went seriously downhill, she expressed a stubborn desire to survive long enough to vote in the U.S. November elections. Maybe that will be enough to keep her going! 

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It's a brutal disease for those who get it badly and I so, SOOO hope your friend will be able to vote!

Italy's numbers are pretty much the same as yesterday, 4053 new cases (just 3 more than yesterday) and 837 deaths, just up from yesterday. Again they are not increasing (meaningfully)

The UK not looking great with a massive jump in deaths, 381, the highest ever so far by a huge margin. Over 3000 new cases, also the highest to date.

Germany is so far reporting just 1300 new cases, which sounds way too low and too rapid a drop, so maybe they are late, they report throughout the day, not all at once like Italy and France.

Spain had a hickup yesterday but looking better again today with new cases.

And I was sent this and it's actually absolutely genius!!!

[petra_r]

This mornings graphs. (I am cutting the left side off a bit now because it becomes irrelevant.)

[jr-translation]

After hardly testing in the past week they admitted today that the 3 tested positiv last week were infected within the city by one or several unknown people. So now it really has arrived and the past weeks where only the quiet before the storm. (Not so quiet when you are stuck with a small kid.)

They prepared everything in the past 2 weeks so the hospital has been cleared and is only open for CV patients and there is a separate entrance for the obstetrics ward after several women had to give birth at home and a baby alomost died.

The nursing homes all cleared one floor to make room for infected residents.

[petra_r]

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Jennifer R wrote:

They prepared everything in the past 2 weeks so the hospital has been cleared and is only open for CV patients and there is a separate entrance for the obstetrics ward after several women had to give birth at home and a baby alomost died.

The nursing homes all cleared one floor to make room for infected residents.

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The more I think about this, what determines the course and outcome by country is preparedness. Your country had something incredibly precious: TIME to prepare before it hit in earnest. Hopefully that preparedness, and the social distancing measures, will serve to flatten the curve.

Sadly, the flip side of the coin is also true. Lack of being prepared contributed greatly to what we see in other countries. When I looked at the numbers this morning, New York State has a population of under 20 Million. Germany has a population of over 80 Million.  Yet New York State has more cases, and way more deaths than Germany. 

I just don't understand why governments do not look at South Korea and use what has been shown / proven to be an effective and (in comparison much less destructive to the economy) way to handle it.

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

They prepared everything in the past 2 weeks so the hospital has been cleared and is only open for CV patients and there is a separate entrance for the obstetrics ward after several women had to give birth at home and a baby alomost died.

The nursing homes all cleared one floor to make room for infected residents.

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The more I think about this, what determines the course and outcome by country is preparedness. Your country had something incredibly precious: TIME to prepare before it hit in earnest. Hopefully that preparedness, and the social distancing measures, will serve to flatten the curve.

Sadly, the flip side of the coin is also true. Lack of being prepared contributed greatly to what we see in other countries. When I looked at the numbers this morning, New York State has a population of under 20 Million. Germany has a population of over 80 Million.  Yet New York State has more cases, and way more deaths than Germany. 

I just don't understand why governments do not look at South Korea and use what has been shown / proven to be an effective and (in comparison much less destructive to the economy) way to handle it.

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I think one key is how close people live and the states of the health systems. In Norway every third hospitalised patient needs a ventilator. Once more ventilators then available are needed  more people die.

I think for Europe you can observe several waves.

1. wave: young people that have been skiing

2. wave: their closes relatives

3. wave: people that got infected by people in wave 1+2

4. wave: you can no longer trace it back at all.

from there it speads and everyone who has not taken it serious enough by then will feel it. Most people in Germany and Norway will not realise the extent of it until it really hits them like a sledgehammer.

[boshoffirene]

**Edited for Community Guidelines**

On a lighter note from my neck of the woods, the chickens are settled in and their coop is 99% complete. They enjoy going around the garden and have become quite tame. Two of them Petra and Saartjie, have taken well to being petted. It's a good thing we have them for eggs. Would NEVER be able to eat them...unless forced to 😉 

[gilbert-phyllis]

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Petra R wrote:

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I just don't understand why governments do not look at South Korea and use what has been shown / proven to be an effective and (in comparison much less destructive to the economy) way to handle it.

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Every answer I come up with in my head would likely be moderated.

[versailles]

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 47: Searching for Immunity Boosters & Possible Lessons From Spanish Flu

[petra_r]

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Rene K wrote:

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 47: Searching for Immunity Boosters & Possible Lessons From Spanish Flu

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That's very good!!!

Right Italy's numbers: new infections up from yesterday by some 630 (hopefully a blip rather than a trend reversal) and deaths still brutally high but much lower than recent days at 727.

Over 200k cases in the USA now, and we crossed the 900k barrier worldwide. Spain over 100k but lower cases than yesterday.

UK a record day for cases (although in fairness they are ramping up testing or trying to anyway, so that will make numbers look bad for a bit) and deaths at 563.

France not in yet, Germany was updated very late yesterday, so not trusting the less-than-4000 just yet.

Stay safe everyone.

[dimensiondesign]

This is a great site that shows the world view of what's going on https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Is there another one that is more up to date?

[petra_r]

Today's graphs

You'll notice it has gained a new line (the lime-coloured one)

The first person to figure out what it represents, wins.

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[boshoffirene]

Our saving grace thus far is that we have high summer temperatures...flu season starts soon as we head into winter.

[davidcmarcus]

I'm guessing your lime green line is your educated guess of where Italy will be tommorow if they report the same infections as the day before?  I got 115257 though...

[petra_r]

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David M wrote:

I'm guessing your lime green line is your educated guess of where Italy will be tommorow if they report the same infections as the day before?  I got 115257 though...

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Nice try. But no. It's another number I have been tracking for 8 days now (which is why the line spans 8 days) and wish I had started tracking much earlier

😉

[versailles]

Folding@Home vs Covid:

WHAT YOU CAN DO

1. Donate computing power:
Downloading Folding@home and helping us run simulations is the primary way to contribute. These calculations are enormous and every little bit helps! Each simulation you run is like buying a lottery ticket. The more tickets we buy, the better our chances of hitting the jackpot. Usually, your computer will never be idle, but we’ve had such an enthusiastic response to our COVID-19 work that you will see some intermittent downtime as we sprint to setup more simulations. Please be patient with us! There is a lot of valuable science to be done, and we’re getting it running as quickly as we can...

Learn more...

I just rented a VPS to run Folding@Home 24/7

[ravi_iitian]

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Petra R wrote:

Today's graphs

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Wow. The graphs for the U.S. and UK are really steep.

[mtngigi]

My older brother was admitted to the hospital with the virus last Monday night (the 30th). He has been sedated since then and we hold out hope that because he's held out this long, he'll come through this. My niece (his daughter) lives in Colorado, as I do … my brother is in a hospital on Long Island. It's another layer of awfulness that people can't be in physical contact with their sick loved ones.

Sometimes in times like these, we tend to think it can't happen to us or anyone close to us, but this thing throws all that out the window. For me, there is no degree of separation .... it's brought it all home, literally.

Take care of yourselves my forum friends.

[kanshu1]

Hi Virginia, Cant even imagine what you must be going through right now. Yes, you are absolutely right, untill it actually happen we are in denial and think it cant happen to us. 

Hope your brother gets well soon. 

[petra_r]

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Virginia F wrote:

My older brother was admitted to the hospital with the virus last Monday night (the 30th). He has been sedated since then and we hold out hope that because he's held out this long, he'll come through this. My niece (his daughter) lives in Colorado, as I do … my brother is in a hospital on Long Island. It's another layer of awfulness that people can't be in physical contact with their sick loved ones.

Oh Virginia, that is so awful, I am so sorry. Hugs! Be safe!

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Virginia F wrote:

Sometimes in times like these, we tend to think it can't happen to us or anyone close to us, but this thing throws all that out the window. 

YES! That's what I've been saying for ages!

[petra_r]

Italy numbers are out. Pretty much the same as yesterday, which is good news, because they aren't going up day on day anymore, and people are recovering.

UK looking bad, but they would at this stage I'm afraid.

Germany and Spain, if final, looking promising, France not out yet!

Graphs tomorrow.

[m_terrazas]

Virginia, I'm so sorry.
I hope everything goes well and you have good news soon, and you can tell us.
¡Fuerza!

[ravi_iitian]

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Virginia F wrote:

My older brother was admitted to the hospital with the virus last Monday night (the 30th). He has been sedated since then and we hold out hope that because he's held out this long, he'll come through this. My niece (his daughter) lives in Colorado, as I do … my brother is in a hospital on Long Island. It's another layer of awfulness that people can't be in physical contact with their sick loved ones.

Sometimes in times like these, we tend to think it can't happen to us or anyone close to us, but this thing throws all that out the window. For me, there is no degree of separation .... it's brought it all home, literally.

Take care of yourselves my forum friends.

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Sad. Hope he recovers.

Here is what I suspected all along (with mass infections in cruise ships):

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/you-may-be-able-spread-coronavirus-just-breathing-new-report...

Take care.

[gilbert-phyllis]

Virginia, I am so very sorry, and hope you have better news soon. 

[mtngigi]

Thank you everyone for your well-wishes ... they are most appreciated.

[jmlaidlaw]

Best wishes, best hopes, for your brother, you, and your family, Virginia!

[versailles]

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 49: New Data on COVID-19 vs Other Viral Infections (Ventilator Outcomes)

[petra_r]

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Rene K wrote:

Coronavirus Pandemic Update 49: New Data on COVID-19 vs Other Viral Infections (Ventilator Outcomes)

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Love this, and Thank You for sharing!!! Keep them coming.

[colettelewis]

I think there is room for optimism, but not euphoria. Dr Seheult's statistics are outdated by at least a day. 

http://prntscr.com/rsitkq

The world still has a long way to go to overcome the virus (and future viruses). Recovery is going to be slow in every sense and the backlash is going to be hard for governments to handle. We are really all going to have to row hard against the tide to make peaceful relations work. 

There is not going to be an easy political or economic bounce back however much, individually, we all want this.

[mtngigi]

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Janean L wrote:

Best wishes, best hopes, for your brother, you, and your family, Virginia!

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Thanks Janean ... it makes me happy to see you in the forums again. You've been missed.

[nrurmi]

Hi
How are you all?

Stay Safe guys 

[m_sharman]

Here is a picture of teddy bear..just because 

[petra_r]

I slept in and just had "breakfast" outside (standing next to tangerine tree, eating them straight from the tree because they'll start falling /going off in the next few days) 

Today's charts. Because of France sneakily under-reporting both cases and deaths by not counting people in old peoples' homes (how bizzare is that) as Luce told us some while back, they are now included and that's why the curve shot up.

Source:

April 4 (GMT)

• France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously. On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

[versailles]

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Petra R wrote:

Today's charts. Because of France sneakily under-reporting both cases and deaths by not counting people in old peoples' homes (how bizzare is that) as Luce told us some while back, they are now included and that's why the curve shot up.

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I read also that there's been a hiccup in the statistics one day, which partially explains the bump. (The story in French)

It seems however that we may have hit a plateau in the number of people admitted into hospitals (see below). We should see this week how effective our lock-down is.

COVID Hospitalisations in France

[versailles]

CAPTURING THE COVID-19 DEMOGORGON (AKA SPIKE) IN ACTION
April 3, 2020
by Greg Bowman

The spike of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (shown below) is one particularly appealing target for designing therapeutics to combat the COVID-19 disease. It is actually comprised of three identical proteins arranged in a circle. Many copies of the spike protrude from the surface of the virus, where they wait to encounter a protein on the surface of many human cells, called ACE2. Binding of a spike to ACE2 initiates a series of events that ultimately allow the virus to enter the human cell. Therefore, therapeutics that bind the spike in a manner that blocks its interaction with ACE2 could provide a valuable means to prevent infection...

Read more...