So, today this happens.
Hi all,
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In the US (as elsewhere), it remains a struggle to get a critical mass of people to lock down their movements -- in part because so many people cannot work from home, cannot afford to stop working and won't unless/until we are officially locked down.
I am not a parent but I find this helpful:
Mary W wrote:
"You shouldn’t be upending your life right now to avoid infection; you should assume you are infected and upending your life will help prevent you from infecting others"
That is sooooooo true.
Meanwhile, this morning's graph.
Both Germany (just)
and the USA join Spain ahead of the Italy curve. Italy with a population of 60 Million now has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world, surpassing China with a population of 1.4 Billion.
Well, from what I have seen in some charts, it seems that in France the curve is flattening.
Let's hope it continues like this!
Maria T wrote:Well, from what I have seen in some charts, it seems that in France the curve is flattening.
Let's hope it continues like this!
That set of curves is different from mine because the curves all start on the same date, mine all start at the same point of each country's outbreak.(I am more interested in comparing the trajectory so my day 1 is the same for all (when confirmed cases reached 75 to 85)
These are the official numbers as reported to the WHO (today's not in yet for Italy and France) and I see no flattening
What a letdown! 
I thought that somewhere was going well!
I don't look at those charts again.
I'll keep yours 
Maria T wrote:What a letdown!
I thought that somewhere was going well!
I don't look at those charts again.
I'll keep yours
China is going well. As is South Korea! Look to them 🙂
Stay safe!
#restiamoacasa (let's stay at home!)
#yomequedoencasa (I stay at home)
I am still fascinated by how South Korea dealt with it. It would be frivolous to outright say "They nipped it in the bud, but they prevented CV-19 from ever getting fully into the swing of things with a combination aggressive testing and isolating early on. I guess it's far to say it's not yet completely over, but they do seem to be arriving at the back end relatively unscathed in comparison.
Here's today's 5 country graph. (Edited to add I forgot to put UK to the red line but the red line at the bottom shows the Brits aren't testing much, essentially.)
The US, even with their minimal testing, are well ahead of the Italian curve, which is scary. So are the Germans, but they still have a minimal death rate which nobody has been able to adequately explain to me.
I understand the terrifying Italian death rate. Once the health system hits capacity, essentially, if you get seriously ill, you've pretty much had it.
But why aren't the Germans dying from it the way everone else is?
Anyway, stay safe everyone. stay at home! It took more than three months to reach 100,000 cases worldwide — but only 12 days to log the next 100,000.
Just out of interest, I added South Korea... Well, all I can say is: "THAT is what "flattening the curve" looks like..." Note how they were initially ahead of the Italian curve by quite some margin....
Petra R wrote:But why aren't the Germans dying from it the way everone else is?
That might be because more than 50% of infections are people between 35-59. RKI
While there are plenty of heartwarming stories, it probably did me good to be reminded a few days ago that we are often surrounded by idiots.
I had to take a late-night train home from London. I was doing the bored hovering thing while waiting and noticed a young woman a few feet away who looked a bit wibbly. I asked if she was OK and she said yes but came over for a chat anyway.
Then she went into a rant about this **** virus. I made agreeable noises and she said, "No, you don't get it. I'm not Chinese. I'm really not Chinese." It was late and I wasn't completely on the ball so it came to me slowly that she wasn't just drunk - she was really, really upset. Because people wouldn't believe she wasn't Chinese. And she said she wouldn't have been quite so xxxx about what people had been saying to her if she hadn't happened to be South Korean. And I'm sure people can fill in the gaps.
On another note entirely, this is what the shops look like in Dublin. Everything is shut except grocery shops and pharmacies. My daughter told me, "Our shopping list is ' if the shop has food back, get something'."
Meanwhile at Puerto Vallarta airport, there's no room for social distancing as Canadians and Americans on spring break are running out of time to leave.
Nichola L wrote:The number of deaths anywhere might show a higher percentage of older people dying from the virus. However, the numbers do include many younger people and children. So younger people should not assume immunity from death. No one is.
And Petra's question remains unanswered - why Italy?
Actually, I get "Why Italy" - lots of old people, people living in extended family groups so the people most likely to get infected (younger ones) are in constant contact with those likely to die (old people.) Now we are way, WAY beyond the capacity of the health system and if you get seriously ill, you've just about had it. Once a health system is beyond capacity, that's it. And that doesn't just mean the coronavirus. The numbers don't include the people who die because they can't be saved simply because there aren't any intensive care beds to save them because they are all taken up by CV patients. Doctors spend their days deciding who lives and who dies.
My question was "Why are Germans dying at such ridiculously (compared to other countries) low rate?"
There must be something to be learned in that.
Today's graph. France does show signs of flattening. Long may it continue. US out of control even with very minimal testing (a friend of mine was tested yesterday and sent home with pneumonia, the result will take 3 to 5 days... she (clearly) has it, but won't appear on the chart for up to 5 days...
Christine A wrote:Meanwhile at Puerto Vallarta airport, there's no room for social distancing as Canadians and Americans on spring break are running out of time to leave.
This is ridiculous... Those people should have stayed the hell at home.
Here is the updated death graph...
Petra R wrote:Here is the updated death graph...
"Actually, I get "Why Italy" - lots of old people, people living in extended family groups so the people most likely to get infected (younger ones) are in constant contact with those likely to die (old people.)"
Germany probably has atomic families.
The curve for Spain is similar to that of Italy (probably for the reason you have cited above).
India and Bagnladesh will probably have steeper curves than Italy.
Ravindra B wrote:India and Bagnladesh will probably have steeper curves than Italy.
... unless they arrest it NOW. In much the same way South Korea has done. Because it works.....
In the meantime, I can stop worrying about CV and worry about Earthquakes. Variety is the spice of life... Today's activity....
