Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[yitwail]

I think precaution is wise when dealing with the unknown. For instance, one of the coronavirus victims in Wuhan was a 36 year man with no pre-existing condition associated with coronavirus mortality.
https://time.com/5770924/wuhan-coronavirus-youngest-death/
Also, I’ve read that there seem to be 2 variants of the virus, with one being much more lethal than the other, but I doubt it can be easily determined at this time which variant a person is afflicted with.

[petra_r]

The overall mortality rate is not the actual problem. The rapid spread in the context of availability of healthcare, however, is. 

All the severe measures aren't in place to stop or cure the virus, but to make sure as many of the sick as possible don't die in a tent because all hospital beds are taken as possible. The measures may just help to get the numbers of the new critically ill in line with those who are discharged or die (both outcomes free up a hospital bed equally effectively)

There are not enough Intensive Care beds in to save everyone who gets seriously ill in Italy already. Fact.

Italian doctors already have to decide who gets a chance to live and who has to be left to die. Fact.

People are dying in hospital corridors already. Fact.

Flattening the curve is the only way forward and to pretend it's just a cold and if we ignore it all will be ticketyboo is nothing short of idiotic. 

I'd rather get my information from real doctors, real, current, up to date and compos mentis experts in their respective fields and those who actually do know what they're talking about, than from armchair experts who get theirs from the dumbed down "let's pretend it isn't happening then maybe it'll go away - let's not test people so we keep the numbers low" fraction

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Change of subject.

This is cute:

[jr-translation]

DH will stay home today and the kid can play outside today.

[battershall-ramo]

Quite, the numbers of people who die of flu each year are far higher by a huge extent, and flu would have killed many of the people who have died anyway. It's undeniably a problem, but an increasingly desperate and devolving media are trying to hype this up into armaggedon in the way they do everything these days. 

[lysis10]

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Ramon B wrote:

Quite, the numbers of people who die of flu each year are far higher by a huge extent, and flu would have killed many of the people who have died anyway. It's undeniably a problem, but an increasingly desperate and devolving media are trying to hype this up into armaggedon in the way they do everything these days. 

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I hate media lol They create panic. It's so crazy.

This reminds me so much of the SARS craziness. Or the anthrax stuff when people were afraid to open their mail. lol

The boomers in my area don't even seem to care. I got my nails done yesterday and there were a few boomers just doing the same. There are like 3-4 boomers that go to the gym at the same time I do. Got some inside pics of NYC and Atlanta though and they are having a meltdown. 

Today my friend who went on a cruise last week comes over where she will officially turn me into a bat flu walker. I will report in two weeks if I start eating brains.

[battershall-ramo]

I'm still worried about the Y2K bug to be honest - when do I catch it, and what are the symptoms? [No, I think I'll leave this one]

[petra_r]

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Ramon B wrote:

Quite, the numbers of people who die of flu each year are far higher by a huge extent, and flu would have killed many of the people who have died anyway. 

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That isn't the point and a very poor argument, as the people who get the flu still get the flu.

The main problem is that this thing is in addition to the people who are or get sick or die from the flu and from other illnesses or accidents.

I am not sure which part of "The health systems can not cope with the spike of cases this thing is creating in addition to all the people who are or are getting ill with what's around already if this is not contained" some people have such a hard time wrapping their heads around.

This isn't "instead of" flu, cancer, kidney failure, accidents and so on. It's in addition to and therein lies the problem. The faster it spreads, the more cases there are, and the less the health systems can cope.

[battershall-ramo]

And the world economy can't cope with a hysterial and xenophobic overreaction that's ultimately going to cause far more damage than the virus itself. Britain's calm and measured reponse - going on evidence rather than media hysteria and lots of little graphs showing the evil "foreign virus" taking over the world (sound familiar somehow?) - makes me very proud. 

[petra_r]

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Ramon B wrote:

Britain's calm and measured reponse - going on evidence rather than media hysteria and lots of little graphs showing the evil "foreign virus" taking over the world (sound familiar somehow?) - makes me very proud. 

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Britain's response to the virus: 

The Cheltenham Festival.

Remember Britain is a couple of weeks behind Italy...

Let's revisit the sanity of  the "calm and measured reponse" in a couple of weeks...

I totally agree that the media aren't helping, nor is panic. But pretending it's not happening is dangerous. 

Waiting too long before doing something drastic about it is equally dangerous.

[petra_r]

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wrote:

Yes, much better to pull up the drawbridge and keep all the nasty foreign things out. 

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I don't really know what this has to do with xenophobia to be honest. It isn't about keeping "foreign things out" but about slowing down the spreading and flattening the curve so the system can cope.

Let's just see where everyone is in 2 weeks time. 

And there was no year "a few years ago" when the flu killed 45.000 people in the UK.

The average is under 1000.

And again: the CV cases is in addition to people getting sick from other stuff, including the normal flu.

[versailles]

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Ramon B wrote:

Do you think Britain should follow suit and start banning everyone and everything then?

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WHO already pointed out that this is not effective. Sensible reaction is to mitigate the spread by limiting social interactions. It sucks big deal, but it works.

Here (France) gatherings of more than 100 are already prohibited, but people are already taking self-imposed measures. Many have decided to limit their social exposure already. Companies are closing and making people telecommute when possible. 

People, except Parisians, are smart enough to understand what to do.

[feed_my_eyes]

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Ramon B wrote:

And the world economy can't cope with a hysterial and xenophobic overreaction that's ultimately going to cause far more damage than the virus itself. Britain's calm and measured reponse - going on evidence rather than media hysteria and lots of little graphs showing the evil "foreign virus" taking over the world (sound familiar somehow?) - makes me very proud. 

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Britain treating its population like guinea pigs isn't necessarily going to turn out well; some experts think that the government's strategy is foolish and dangerous. And a friend in London just told me that he went to six different supermarkets looking for toilet paper and couldn't find any. So much for "calm and measured".

[lysis10]

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Christine A wrote:

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Ramon B wrote:

And the world economy can't cope with a hysterial and xenophobic overreaction that's ultimately going to cause far more damage than the virus itself. Britain's calm and measured reponse - going on evidence rather than media hysteria and lots of little graphs showing the evil "foreign virus" taking over the world (sound familiar somehow?) - makes me very proud. 

---

Britain treating its population like guinea pigs isn't necessarily going to turn out well; some experts think that the government's strategy is foolish and dangerous. And a friend in London just told me that he went to six different supermarkets looking for toilet paper and couldn't find any. So much for "calm and measured".

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Yeah, there are these jackasses:

Like for real? I didn't need toilet people but these people are trash.

eta: since it's spelled "Tyre Centre" I assume this is Ozzy bogans.

[feed_my_eyes]

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Jennifer M wrote:

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Christine A wrote:

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Ramon B wrote:

And the world economy can't cope with a hysterial and xenophobic overreaction that's ultimately going to cause far more damage than the virus itself. Britain's calm and measured reponse - going on evidence rather than media hysteria and lots of little graphs showing the evil "foreign virus" taking over the world (sound familiar somehow?) - makes me very proud. 

---

Britain treating its population like guinea pigs isn't necessarily going to turn out well; some experts think that the government's strategy is foolish and dangerous. And a friend in London just told me that he went to six different supermarkets looking for toilet paper and couldn't find any. So much for "calm and measured".

---

Yeah, there are these jackasses:

Like for real? I didn't need toilet people but these people are trash.

eta: since it's spelled "Tyre Centre" I assume this is Ozzy bogans.

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"Tyre" is the correct spelling (you hopeless Yank, you), but yeah, if people are wearing shorts and flip flops then it's a safe bet they're Ozzies.

[lysis10]

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Christine A wrote:

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"Tyre" is the correct spelling (you hopeless Yank, you), but yeah, if people are wearing shorts and flip flops then it's a safe bet they're Ozzies.

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Every time my e-frands call me a Yank, it makes me chuckle. Tyre is the strangest spelling ever and "Centre" wat is this shenanigans spelling?

[versailles]

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Ramon B wrote:

Quite, the numbers of people who die of flu each year are far higher by a huge extent,  

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For now. We're at the beginning of the CV-19 pandemic and the overall death rate is way higher. If it spreads at the same rate as the flu, it's gonna to kill way more people.

Today a Parisian hospital warned that death rate in the younger population (without preexisting conditions) is already higher than what we were told. There are still too many unknowns about CV-19. Italy went the soft route and they are now regretting it.

[versailles]

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Ramon B wrote:

Most of China is back to normal now 

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Have you seen the extreme measures the Chinese government implemented to get there?

[lizablau]

Same with S. Korea: 

Coronavirus in South Korea: How 'trace, test and treat' may be saving lives

 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-south-korea-drive-thru-test-covid-19/ 

[versailles]

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Ramon B wrote:

the virus began to dissipate natually 

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Yes. Viruses dissipate naturally. Sure. The quarantene of whole cities is not what stabilized the spread in China. It simply dissipated. 

In the meanwhile the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control slightly disagrees:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/rapid-risk-assessment-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019...

[gilbert-phyllis]

More evidence that social distancing deployed early works.
https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

[petra_r]

Sigh...

Italy's figures are out.

2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths in 24 hours.

There are now more active cases in little Italy than all of China.

[versailles]

In the meanwhile, the UK is going God will recongnize his own...

U.K. Says Virus Needs to Infect 60% of Britons to Save Lives

[petra_r]

... meanwhile, a neighbour (I don't even know which one) left a bag with cat and dog treats and some chocolates for me on my garden gate. Someone went shopping and thought of me... how lovely!

No note, just kindness 

[mtngigi]

I wish everyone would stop pontificating about what is and what isn't going on, or whether the news is "fake" or not. Please stop posting as if you're a medical professional if you're not. All the conjecturing in the world that makes it sound as if you know what you're talking about helps no one. It doesn't matter how many people did or didn't die from the flu. This post is not about the flu.

Bottom line, this from Petra's post: "2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths in 24 hours" should say enough. 250 people dying in one day means 10+ people dying every hour. That is nothing to argue or conjecture about.

[luce-neidert]

W

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Virginia F wrote:

I wish everyone would stop pontificating about what is and what isn't going on, or whether the news is "fake" or not. Please stop posting as if you're a medical professional if you're not. All the conjecturing in the world that makes it sound as if you know what you're talking about helps no one. It doesn't matter how many people did or didn't die from the flu. This post is not about the flu.

Bottom line, this from Petra's post: "2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths in 24 hours" should say enough. 250 people dying in one day means 10+ people dying every hour. That is nothing to argue or conjecture about.

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Well, Virginia, let's look at the bright side of this situation : less polution.

[colettelewis]

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Virginia F wrote:

I wish everyone would stop pontificating about what is and what isn't going on, or whether the news is "fake" or not. Please stop posting as if you're a medical professional if you're not. All the conjecturing in the world that makes it sound as if you know what you're talking about helps no one. It doesn't matter how many people did or didn't die from the flu. This post is not about the flu.

Bottom line, this from Petra's post: "2,547 new cases and 250 new deaths in 24 hours" should say enough. 250 people dying in one day means 10+ people dying every hour. That is nothing to argue or conjecture about.

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___________________

+1000 and more 

[feed_my_eyes]

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Rene K wrote:

In the meanwhile, the UK is going God will recongnize his own...

U.K. Says Virus Needs to Infect 60% of Britons to Save Lives

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Boris Johnson should lead the way and volunteer to be infected himself, if he thinks that this is such a good idea. The lockdown policies in China have proven to be effective, so I have no idea why every country isn't adopting that strategy, or at least cancelling large gatherings. I just heard that the annual half-marathon in Bath is going ahead tomorrow because the organisers don't want to "disappoint" anyone (talk about your first world problems!). It seems that most countries don't take this seriously until a few thousand of their citizens get infected first.

[petra_r]

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Christine A wrote:

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Rene K wrote:

In the meanwhile, the UK is going God will recongnize his own...

U.K. Says Virus Needs to Infect 60% of Britons to Save Lives

---

Boris Johnson should lead the way and volunteer to be infected himself, if he thinks that this is such a good idea. The lockdown policies in China have proven to be effective, so I have no idea why every country isn't adopting that strategy, or at least cancelling large gatherings. I just heard that the annual half-marathon in Bath is going ahead tomorrow because the organisers don't want to "disappoint" anyone (talk about your first world problems!). It seems that most countries don't take this seriously until a few thousand of their citizens get infected first.

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I do think much can be learned from the South Korean approach. 

The key to it is testing massively and aggressively.

Of course the whole idea of herd immunity in this context is utterly idiotic.

There is currently somewhere between little and no clue about how much immunity is created in people who contracted this particular virus and nobody knows how long any immunity to it lasts, and to get to any degree of "herd immunity" a huge percentage of any given population would have to be immune.

The UK keeps talking about herd immunity, but to get that, the numbers of people who'd have to become infected would mean that before this is over, more people would die in the UK than China (with over 1.3 billion people) by a huge margin, even assuming a minute actual death rate.... There are 66 Million people in the UK, herd immunity would require a very minimum of 60% (likely higher) to have been both infected and become immune as a result - so even if the death rate was just half a percent, we would be talking about 200.000 deaths. And that's if the thing doesn't mutate or evolve before herd immunity is reached, which is unlikely.

If herd immunity worked for flu viruses, there would be no need for annual vaccinations, because everyone would be nice and immune. 

This is common sense and simple maths.

[m_terrazas]

I'm afraid relying on immunization won't work.
Cases of reinfected are already appearing. Healed people who have contracted the virus again.
It is not known why (virus remains is small that they do not test positive?), nor if they can transmit it again.

Meanwhile, in Spain the wise decision has been made to close the country.
It starts on Monday.

Be all very careful, not fearful!

A disinfected greeting!

[resultsassoc]

Virginia,

I did medical school but haven't practiced in more than 30 years. The basic principles of viral epidemeology haven't changed in that time. I also did an advanced degree in Operations Research/Systems Analysis, a branch of statistics.

The most reliable information comes from South Korea which has a relatively large sample size and rigorous processes for data collection, analysis and reporting. COVID-19 isn't a walk in the park, but it is a member of the corona virus family. South Korea has reported a fatality rate of 0.7%, mostly in line with other corona viruses, and less deadly than some. If seven billion people become infected globally, that's 49 million deaths.

It's 49 million tragedies, of course, and we should mourn each death. We should not be terrified; we have a 99.3% probability of survival. And, I expect, as in most viral epidemeology work, the fatality rate will decline as sample size increases. The fatality rate is calculated by deaths divided by number of diagnosed cases. Small children, and many adults, are infected but show no symptoms, hence have not been tested. Among adults, most will deal with relatively mild, and not debilitating symptoms. Almost all deaths will be among people such as myself, over seventy and with existing heart, lung and/or kidney illnesses.

The foregoing is either factual or based on real-world experience. The following is pure opinion: The virus itself will prove less a problem than the panic. I'm not trying to be blase, nor am I heartless. This is opinion, albeit informed, and until there is a vaccine, and eventually an effective treatment, there is not a lot we can do about it. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," said Franklin D. Roosevelt at the outset of World War II. Despite the awful destruction of the war, he was right.

[versailles]

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Bill H wrote:

The most reliable information comes from South Korea which has a relatively large sample size and rigorous processes for data collection, analysis and reporting. COVID-19 isn't a walk in the park, but it is a member of the corona virus family. South Korea has reported a fatality rate of 0.7%, mostly in line with other corona viruses, and less deadly than some. 

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WHO report March 13th, 2020

Globally:
132 758 confirmed 
4955 deaths

That's 3.73%. Maybe it will go down soon as more data is being collected, I certainly hope so, but so far the global lethality rate is 3.73%. This figure doesn't account for age.

[petra_r]

Rene, Bill has repeated his opinions many times. They don't get any more or less correct every time he has  repeated them, nor is there any reasoning with them.

Bill, your opinion has been read. Every time you have posted the same thing. Thank you for contributing. No need to repeat it.

Let's just not let this thread be derailed because I am sort of attached to it, find it comforting and don't want it closed down because people rise to provocation.

Please!

Thank you.

[versailles]

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Petra R wrote:

Rene, Bill has repeated his opinions many times. They don't get any more or less correct every time he has  repeated them, nor is there any reasoning with them.

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Right. That being said, I still hope he's right. Maybe, only maybe when more data become available, we'll have a nice surprise and will discover that the lethality rate is way lower than we though. 

[mtngigi]

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Bill H wrote:

Virginia,

I did medical school but haven't practiced in more than 30 years. The basic principles of viral epidemeology haven't changed in that time. I also did an advanced degree in Operations Research/Systems Analysis, a branch of statistics.

The most reliable information comes from South Korea which has a relatively large sample size and rigorous processes for data collection, analysis and reporting. COVID-19 isn't a walk in the park, but it is a member of the corona virus family. South Korea has reported a fatality rate of 0.7%, mostly in line with other corona viruses, and less deadly than some. If seven billion people become infected globally, that's 49 million deaths.

It's 49 million tragedies, of course, and we should mourn each death. We should not be terrified; we have a 99.3% probability of survival. And, I expect, as in most viral epidemeology work, the fatality rate will decline as sample size increases. The fatality rate is calculated by deaths divided by number of diagnosed cases. Small children, and many adults, are infected but show no symptoms, hence have not been tested. Among adults, most will deal with relatively mild, and not debilitating symptoms. Almost all deaths will be among people such as myself, over seventy and with existing heart, lung and/or kidney illnesses.

The foregoing is either factual or based on real-world experience. The following is pure opinion: The virus itself will prove less a problem than the panic. I'm not trying to be blase, nor am I heartless. This is opinion, albeit informed, and until there is a vaccine, and eventually an effective treatment, there is not a lot we can do about it. "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," said Franklin D. Roosevelt at the outset of World War II. Despite the awful destruction of the war, he was right.

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With all due respect, Bill ... so? I said nothing about being "fearful" ...  that was not the point of my post.

[kochubei_valeria]

Hi All,

I'd just like to stop by and remind everybody that it's important to stay professional and within our Community Guidelines and values, even in the Coffee Break section. Unfortunately, we've already had to remove several posts from this thread. 

I understand that this is a confusing and stressful topic, but let's use this thread to support each other in this difficult time instead of arguing.

Stay healthy and wash your hands.

Thank you!

[petra_r]

Today saw the biggest jump in cases in Italy so far.

+3,497 new cases and 175 deaths in 24 hours.

That makes 8695 new cases in the last 3 days, and 614 people died in those 3 days. 

I would really like it to peak soon and start going down. This is not fun.

Meanwhile, Italians make music (some better than others) 🙂

[vsalinitro]

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Petra R wrote:

Meanwhile, Italians make music (some better than others) 🙂

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As an Italian living abroad and constantly worried about family and friends, I really loved the initiative!

It's refreshing to finally see something good coming out from this situation.

[wendy_writes]

@ Maria, how are you doing?

The sound of thanks ....

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-51895386/coronavirus-spain-and-italy-applaud-health-workers

[m_terrazas]

Hola Wendy!
¿Qué tal estás tú?

In our area, things are going pretty well for now.
It is an area with very few inhabitants, and as the traffic is closed, we hope that not many people come for the Easter holidays (it is an area of ​​vacation homes)
CV will come, like everywhere, but the later, the better.

Now, to comply with the orders of the Government and Health so that we can make everything slower.

I hope that ALL governments make the same decision as soon as possible.

And ...... wash your hands well 🙂

[petra_r]

Here is a very good article explaining why the whole idea of herd immunity in this context is insane. (written by a Harvard University professor who researches and teaches evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease- aka, someone who actually does know what he's talking about.)

When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire

That's essentially the scientific version of my amateur attempts at "that doesn't make sense, let's crunch some numbers" from yesterday.

There is possibly some hope on the horizon in form of a drug that has, according to what I've read, shown promising results and is already in the testing stages