Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[luce-neidert]

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Petra R wrote:

Not all Italian are allowed out.

We are still on lockdown.

When will I go out again?

When my favourite restaurant reopens

Prosecco

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Very wise decision. I'm impressed!

[ravi_iitian]

We in India are locked down for another 12 days, but I wonder how much that is going to help because very little testing is being done here.

I found this article interesting:

https://21stcenturywire.com/2020/05/01/covid-why-sweden-has-already-won-the-debate-on-covid-19-lockd...

[abinadab-agbo]

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Petra R wrote:

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We can't get away from the fact that heavy testing, contact tracing and isolating of infected people, along with an early and decisive lockdown not only saves lives, but also means that reopening can be done faster and sooner, so not only are countless lives saved, but the economy is affected much less.

Look at New Zealand.

I rest my case.

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There is no escaping from the aftermath of coronavirus.

All nations of the earth, with the exception of none, will have to pay dearly for this virus.

Countries that locked down early, went long and hard will not pay with lives much.

But will pay very dearly with the economy. The day of reckoning will come and I very much fear it will be a nasty shock for them. Think AU & NZ. Their economies can only stutter until

- a vaccine is found, or

- the cure becomes widely available.

Because they'll always be afraid of a second wave as they are nowhere near herd immunity.

Countries that found the middleground and went soft on the lockdowns will pay half with their lives and half with their economy.

Countries that did little to no lockdowns at all will pay very dearly with their lives. Their economies might not suffer that much.

It is against this backdrop that I believe the right time to talk about which countries did well and which did not, is not now. It is, a reasonable period of time after the coronavirus has been eliminated.

That would be the right time to know who did well, and who did not, methinks.

Because it is not just a health crisis; it's an economic crisis, it's an everything crises.

So the scorecard will be on, who managed all the crises reasonably well.

Thanks.

[petra_r]

Updated graph.

Yesterday, Italy (or most of Italy) started "phase 2" where further restrictions were lifted. Germany also eased the lock-down more.

So I'll be keeping a close eye on those two curves especially, but "so far, so good" - the real test will be what happens to the numbers as things start moving forward to what will be "the new normal" for the foreseeable future.

Europe overall not looking bad, and moving into summer likely helps too.

[wendy_writes]

32 premier ballerinas from 22 dance companies in 14 countries perform Le Cygne (The Swan) variation sequentially with music by Camille Saint-Saëns, performed by cellist Wade Davis, in support of Swans for Relief.

Too beautiful to not share -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT14o5Wq7gE&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR0Nf0USBm5hIRaAagPG1-7xW55__YXE5...

[mwiggenhorn]

Wendy, that was beyond words.  Thank you.  There is still great beauty in the world.

[petra_r]

Graph updated at the end of the first week of restrictions being slowly lifted in Italy.

Currently active cases in Spain, Italy and especially Germany continue to fall. France more or less level, USA still increasing overall.

[abinadab-agbo]

I heard the Germany and NZ cases started rising when they began loosing restrictions.

[petra_r]

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Abinadab A wrote:

I heard the Germany and NZ cases started rising when they began loosing restrictions.

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You did? 

Germany

New Zealand (who are now in phase 3)

[m_terrazas]

Petra, where did you get those charts? Are they yours or from some web page?
They are very good. 

Forget it, I didn't notice the links 

[vsalinitro]

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Abinadab A wrote:

I heard the Germany and NZ cases started rising when they began loosing restrictions.

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No, In NZ we started loosing restrictions 2 weeks ago and since then we just had a handful of cases, mostly related to one single cluster. On Thursday we will be progressively moving to Alert level 2,  first restaurants and retails, than schools and finally bars will be able to open under strict conditions.

So far, everything seems to be working quite well.

[abinadab-agbo]

I just hope it doesn't flow from that cluster to another cluster.

Last I heard was New Zealand was having 0 new cases day after day, so a handful of new cases?

Well it's good news but not good news.

[vsalinitro]

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Abinadab A wrote:

I just hope it doesn't flow from that cluster to another cluster.

Last I heard was New Zealand was having 0 new cases day after day, so a handful of new cases?

Well it's good news but not good news.

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It is possible but so far it seems to be contained, in general New Zealanders responded quite well to the lockdown. We had "only" two days with 0 cases, the rest of the time we had between 2 and 5 (confirmed and probable).

[colettelewis]

I think we all have to realize that this virus cannot be "contained". It is  not containable and it does not recognize boundaries, countries or political agendas. Just one person (who may be asymptomatic) can potentially infect thousands of others and thousands of those people will die - horribly. 

Each of us has a responsibility to try to reduce the progress of this disease and its mutation, and this is not by eagerly returning to our entitled "must-have" attitude, and it is not necessarily by listening to our respective governments' sometimes very mixed messages.  Yes, the economy as we know it will suffer, but what about a new, and different economy to come - an economy that could be beneficial? 

[vsalinitro]

Sorry Nichola but I disagree. The virus can be contained (and it's been successfully done by some countries) with appropriate measures and communication, it's really difficult but achievable. If we give up to the notion that this is not possible, we are basically saying that nothing can be done and every measure is basically pointless.

I agree that each one of us has a responsibility to try to reduce the progress of this disease, but I do not understand how can we label as "entitled "must-have" attitude" wanting to go back, as much as possible, to a more normal life, since eradication is impossible at the moment (and probably for many months to come) it's crazy to put our lives on hold until a vaccine comes out. Unfortunately this virus is a reality, and we have to learn how to coexist with it, not submit to it.

[colettelewis]

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Valerio S wrote:

Sorry Nichola but I disagree. The virus can be contained (and it's been successfully done by some countries) with appropriate measures and communication, it's really difficult but achievable. If we give up to the notion that this is not possible, we are basically saying that nothing can be done and every measure is basically pointless.

I agree that each one of us has a responsibility to try to reduce the progress of this disease, but I do not understand how can we label as "entitled "must-have" attitude" wanting to go back, as much as possible, to a more normal life, since eradication is impossible at the moment (and probably for many months to come) it's crazy to put our lives on hold until a vaccine comes out. Unfortunately this virus is a reality, and we have to learn how to coexist with it, not submit to it.

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__________________

Give me one example. It has spiked again in China and Korea. And I am not saying we should put our lives on hold. I am saying we should look at our lives differently. And I certainly did not say we should submit to the virus - although people who selfishly believe that things can be as they were before, will certainly submit other people to certain death. 

I think, we are probably on the same page. I certainly do not agree that we should not take measures, but I do wonder if those measures are not being lifted too early in order to crank up an economy that could be doomed. 

[vsalinitro]

Let's start considering that containment is the action of keeping something harmful under control or within limits (I'm not trying to be presumptuous, I had to google it to be sure I was using this term correctly).

Korea (total cases 10,909, total deaths 256, that's 5 per million) had 34 new cases, hardly a signal of a situation out of control in a country that roughly counts 52 million inhabitants (but it certainly raises concerns about further community transmission).

Singapore has, so far, 21 reported deaths on a total number of cases of 23,822 (4 per million).

New Zealand has 1497 reported cases and 21 deaths (4 per million).

Australia has 6,948 reported cases and 97deaths (4 per million).

While any number over 0 is tragic, these are clear signs that the situation has been contained and dealt with as good as possible, all considering.

I agree, I think we are on the same page, but spikes in cases are going to be our new reality at least for a while and bouncing back and forth between restrictions too, all this in order to maintain a certain balance between the needs of our economy and our health.

[abinadab-agbo]

These are tough times, tough virus, and there are no perfect answers, or solutions.

The other day the Aussie govt. were sounding like, 'they are taking care to make sure the burden on future generations because of coronavirus is not too much.'

That's a round about way of saying, "The money to pay you to stay at home, is finished (or is about to finish).

[abinadab-agbo]

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Nichola L wrote:

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Give me one example. It has spiked again in China and Korea. And I am not saying we should put our lives on hold. I am saying we should look at our lives differently. And I certainly did not say we should submit to the virus - although people who selfishly believe that things can be as they were before, will certainly submit other people to certain death. 

I think, we are probably on the same page. I certainly do not agree that we should not take measures, but I do wonder if those measures are not being lifted too early in order to crank up an economy that could be doomed. 

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This sweeping mental reform won't come anytime soon, I'm afraid, Nichola.

People will always want more monies, and more fancy cars, and those fancy things that will cause more coronavirus.

"No way am I going back to that rural, listless, unassuming kind of life", says most.

ETA: Did you know many capitalists are willing to die for that belief system.

Cos capitalism is another way of saying, "small government, little to no interference with my business".

To survive coronavirus you'll get the exact opposite of that school.

You'd be surprised to know how many are willing to die than see the ideological freedoms they fought for and believed in for many years chipped at.

I'm in no way publicly expressing adherence or opposition to any socio-economic system.

Just mentioning how it gels out in the age of corona.

[abinadab-agbo]

Who loves the way this virus is resetting everything lol.

I've been waiting for a recession for 12 freaking years!

I've been waiting with bated breath for this reset (not the death part, but the reset).

'Bless me, I didn't want anybody to die.

It's very unfortunate people have to die for the much awaited Great Reset to happen.

So unfortunate.

[petra_r]

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Nichola L wrote:

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Valerio S wrote:

Sorry Nichola but I disagree. The virus can be contained (and it's been successfully done by some countries) with appropriate measures and communication, it's really difficult but achievable. 

Give me one example. It has spiked again in China and Korea.

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"Spiked again?" I don't know, doesn't look like "spikes" to me. "Spikelets" maybe?

China and South Korea

"Contain" does not mean "eradicate."

There was never any (realistic) expectation that it could be eradicated in one fell swoop.

What the measures in those countries that did well have done was buy time, put in place measures to trace and test and isolate and not overwhelm the health system, leading to a progression towards a new normal relatively quickly.

Until there is a safe vaccine or treatment, keeping numbers down is what "containing" means. Testing, tracing, isolating the sick and the vulnerable (preferably far away from each other 😉 ). 

[petra_r]

                       Should I stay home or go out today?

[petra_r]

Another graph, which will be interesting (to me at least) in a week or two because yesterday the restrictions in Italy were more or less lifted as far as shops and restaurants and beaches etc are concerned (social distancing and masks still mandatory mostly)

Spain and Italy continue a steady downwards trend, as is Germany, where the downward trend is flatter, but they had far fewer cases at their peak than the others,

France holding steady/declining very slowly.

The USA has not peaked yet and may well not do so until it will have over 3 x as many infected people per Million population than Italy had when it peaked a month ago today...

Yesterday, Italy also had the lowest number of new infections and new deaths in 2 months. New deaths fell under 100 for the first time. 

In other news, quietly, Russia has overtaken everyone bar the USA for total cases, and Brazil will probably move past Spain within the next couple of days. Current top 10 

[m_terrazas]

I'm with you, we will have to wait a couple of weeks to see how everything evolves now that the restrictions are being gradually opened.
From what has been seen here with the little that can still be done, I do not want to think what will happen when mobility is allowed throughout the country, and entry from other countries is allowed.
We will see.
Be very careful, everyone.

[petra_r]

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Maria T wrote:

I do not want to think what will happen when mobility is allowed throughout the country, and entry from other countries is allowed.

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Yes. I have no intention of going anywhere for quite a while still.

I have become an expert in finding wonderful food that gets delivered (and am supporting smaller businesses rather than supermarket chains in the process...)

🙂

[versailles]

Here in France the lockdown has, kinda, ended on May 11. Bars, restaurants, movie theaters, gyms, bigger malls, well anything gathering people indoors remains closed. Some non-food businesses are still closed and will start to reopen next week, by choice.

Moving more than 100 km is still forbidden unless proven necessity.

Counties are divided into green and red ones, according to how much of virus is still circulating. Parks are reopening in green counties.

Went downtown Paris yesterday to shop for some audio gear. I'd say 50% wear masks outside streets and most inside shops.

Many are still scared and avoid social interactions. We'll see how this develops.

Government has paid for partial unemployment, but the overall financial burden will hit us hard. I hope there will be no second wave.

[astepanov83]

I planned to take my daughter to the Paris Disneyland on her 5th birthday in the middle of June. I procrastinated with booking an apartment and buying plane tickets, and then the virus hit. 

I'm kind of happy I did not spend money, because it's difficult to get refund now. But on the other hand, there will be very little options for a party next month or two.

[petra_r]

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Aleksandr S wrote:

I planned to take my daughter to the Paris Disneyland on her 5th birthday in the middle of June. I procrastinated with booking an apartment and buying plane tickets, and then the virus hit. 

I'm kind of happy I did not spend money, because it's difficult to get refund now. But on the other hand, there will be very little options for a party next month or two.

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I'd like to think it will get better by then but Russia is looking to be on a very scary trajectory right now and no, there likely won't be any parties in June- But if she's 5 maybe she won't know when her birthday is and you can celebrate later?

Rene K wrote:

I hope there will be no second wave.

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I hope so too. Not so much because I believe there won't be one, but because after months of thi I need to have hope.

[astepanov83]

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Petra R wrote:

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Aleksandr S wrote:

I planned to take my daughter to the Paris Disneyland on her 5th birthday in the middle of June. I procrastinated with booking an apartment and buying plane tickets, and then the virus hit. 

I'm kind of happy I did not spend money, because it's difficult to get refund now. But on the other hand, there will be very little options for a party next month or two.

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I'd like to think it will get better by then but Russia is looking to be on a very scary trajectory right now and no, there likely won't be any parties in June- But if she's 5 maybe she won't know when her birthday is and you can celebrate later?

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The daily increase is decreasing (hmm, or decrease is increasing). So the situation becomes a little bit better every day.

Nah, she already knows that her birthday is coming. Everyone will be calling to celebrate her. We're going to get along with a big cake and a ton of presents.

And balloons. All the ceiling is covered with balloons.

[jr-translation]

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Petra R wrote:

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Aleksandr S wrote:

I planned to take my daughter to the Paris Disneyland on her 5th birthday in the middle of June. I procrastinated with booking an apartment and buying plane tickets, and then the virus hit. 

I'm kind of happy I did not spend money, because it's difficult to get refund now. But on the other hand, there will be very little options for a party next month or two.

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I'd like to think it will get better by then but Russia is looking to be on a very scary trajectory right now and no, there likely won't be any parties in June- But if she's 5 maybe she won't know when her birthday is and you can celebrate later?

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Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. They know better about their birthday then Xmas.

[astepanov83]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. They know better about their birthday then Xmas.

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Our daughter once saw a child's colorful suitcase in the airport. Now when we ask her about a present, she answers: a suitcase! A 5yr old girls wants a suitcase!

[petra_r]

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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Our daughter once saw a child's colorful suitcase in the airport. Now when we ask her about a present, she answers: a suitcase! A 5yr old girls wants a suitcase!

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All I ever wanted was a horse. 

Is she getting a colourful suitcase??

Jennifer R wrote:

Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. 

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Ah, spot the non-mother lol. I didn't like birthdays as much because of the lack of a horse for so many of them...

[astepanov83]

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Petra R wrote:

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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Our daughter once saw a child's colorful suitcase in the airport. Now when we ask her about a present, she answers: a suitcase! A 5yr old girls wants a suitcase!

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All I ever wanted was a horse. 

Is she getting a colourful suitcase??

Jennifer R wrote:

Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. 

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Ah, spot the non-mother lol. I didn't like birthdays as much because of the lack of a horse for so many of them...

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Of course, she is.

She also says she is going to carry it by herself, but we all know that it will last for 5 minutes only. Then here it goes "I'm tired!".

I fear she asks a horse (or worse, a unicorn) some day, she likes them too.

[jr-translation]

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. They know better about their birthday then Xmas.

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Our daughter once saw a child's colorful suitcase in the airport. Now when we ask her about a present, she answers: a suitcase! A 5yr old girls wants a suitcase!

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My boy is totally into books and languages (apart from Lego). He wants Julia Donaldsons Highway Rat in English, German and Norwegian, because he cannot decide which version is best. A comploiment to the translators. We got the German audiobook of one of his favorite Norwegian books the other day and he keeps pointing out the "mistakes".

[astepanov83]

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. They know better about their birthday then Xmas.

---

Our daughter once saw a child's colorful suitcase in the airport. Now when we ask her about a present, she answers: a suitcase! A 5yr old girls wants a suitcase!

---

My boy is totally into books and languages (apart from Lego). He wants Julia Donaldsons Highway Rat in English, German and Norwegian, because he cannot decide which version is best. A comploiment to the translators. We got the German audiobook of one of his favorite Norwegian books the other day and he keeps pointing out the "mistakes".

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A kid is keen on languages is something I cannot imagine. How old is he? What we mostly do is misbehaving, playing on the swings, and refusing to eat (except food from McDonalds and Papa Johns). She can read and knows simple English phrases and around a hundred of words, but she will never read or speak for nothing.

[jr-translation]

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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Jennifer R wrote:

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Oh, they know and they know about all their friend's birthdays as well. They know what they want for cake and of course the presents months ahead. They know better about their birthday then Xmas.

---

Our daughter once saw a child's colorful suitcase in the airport. Now when we ask her about a present, she answers: a suitcase! A 5yr old girls wants a suitcase!

---

My boy is totally into books and languages (apart from Lego). He wants Julia Donaldsons Highway Rat in English, German and Norwegian, because he cannot decide which version is best. A comploiment to the translators. We got the German audiobook of one of his favorite Norwegian books the other day and he keeps pointing out the "mistakes".

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A kid is keen on languages is something I cannot imagine. How old is he? What we mostly do is misbehaving, playing on the swings, and refusing to eat (except food from McDonalds and Papa Johns). She can read and knows simple English phrases and around a hundred of words, but she will never read or speak for nothing.

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He is 41/2 and is becoming a walking dictionary. A building burned down in the neighbourhood last weekend and he engaged in a conversation with one of the fire fighters the next day. He learned (in Norwegian) that the fire engine has a water cannon. He called over his dad and told him about it in German just to then tell our Chinese friend (who lost her home in the fire) about the water cannon. This time in English after confirming that kanon is cannon in English.

[petra_r]

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Aleksandr S wrote:

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I fear she asks a horse (or worse, a unicorn) some day, she likes them too.

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Being serious for a minute... Getting a little girl into horses is just about the best thing any parent can do to help themselves stay sane during the kid's teenage years, Horses teach so much more than just sport. They are great levelers, they teach responsibility, kindness, fairness, teamwork and that actions have consequences. They teach that when it all goes wrong you must try harder. That when you fall off you get the hell back on. Each different horse teaches a different lesson, some more pleasant than others, all valuable.

They serve as friends and take up so much time that girls who are into horses spend so much time safe at the stables cleaning stalls, brushing horses, scrubbing tack, riding, spending time with others who love horses too, that they don't have (any or as much) time for stuff like boys and cigarettes and drugs and drinking and all the other stuff parents worry about. It may not eliminate all those things entirely, but for me they minimized or delayed my interest in them until I was old enough to handle them.

[petra_r]

Looks like the curve is bending nicely.

7 day average of daily deaths on a timeline starting when deaths reached 0.1 per million

(Source)

Added Norway and New Zealand for Valerio and Jennifer 🙂

[m_terrazas]

It's nice to see a graph falling like this 
I usually look at the infections, and the USA leaves me amazed.
I hope they can deal with so many infected people. If not, it will be a disaster.

[petra_r]

Maria T wrote:

It's nice to see a graph falling like this 
I usually look at the infections, and the USA leaves me amazed.
I hope they can deal with so many infected people. If not, it will be a disaster.

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In fairness, personally I think the total infection numbers look scarier than necessary, simply because the number of people are so different from country to country.

We can't compare the numbers of a country with a population of 330 Million (USA) with a country like Norway with a population of 5 and a half Million.

So we should rather look at the numbers of total infections per million. The problem with that is that every country is on a different place on the curve. Even a week or 10 days difference from the outbreak makes a huge difference, that' why I kept saying "watch the Italian curve" a couple of months back, when people were still saying "Ah but we don't have many cases!" 

When we look at the total cases per million, what is is concerning is that some countries are slowing down (flattening) and others aren't (yet) but again, they're not on the same point of their own timeline.