Coronavirus

[petra_r]

So, today this happens.

[gilbert-phyllis]

---

Wendy C wrote:

An astute insight why some US governors - Georgia's Kemp in particular - are so keen (anxious and antsy) to reopen ... and, IMHO, totally vile and despicable.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/april-21-2020?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo4NzYzMDI5LCJwb3N0X2lk...

---

I subscribe to that daily letter and find it one of the most worthwhile things right now. Dr. Richardson also does two lectures a week, on Tue and Thu afternoons. One answers questions from listeners/readers and the other is a walk through American political history, sort of a companion series to her new book. 

[petra_r]

So, I taught myself how to apply formulas to whole columns lol

What I wanted to see was how different countries' curves compared per Million people.

The previous charts were always skewed because different countries have different population so the large US numbers flattened everyone else, and also made the US look much worse.

So what we have here is the curves on a timeline with day 1 being when there were 25k cases in that country.  Active cases means people who are currently known to be infected and alive. In other words, total cases minus dead people and mins those who are well again.

It looks like Europe except the UK is flattening and declining, Germany actually outperforming everyone.

USA is not flattening at all yet.

[petra_r]

As for people rioting on the streets for restrictions to be lifted:

[kbadeau]

[petra_r]

Today's chart with active cases per million population on a timeline from 25k cases. Everyone on the way down except for the UK and USA, and Spain being a bit wiggly.

Italy is looking promising, but it is very regional. While some of the regions that were originally hit hardest are recovering, it is still spreading down south, with my region (Abruzzo) unfortunately currently still increasing fastest. "R0" is when each infected person infects "only" 1 other. When it is below 1, the outbreak goes away over time. 

[petra_r]

IMPORTANT UPDATE! Fresh off the press!

Spoiler

[petra_r]

Chart...  currently active cases per Million of population.

Germany winning, Italy starting the downward curve. Italy is testing aggressively with over 60k tests a day and the percentage of cases found is dropping. Yesterday, just 3.6% of those tested turned out to have been positive (around the peak it was over 30%)

UK media were talking of having peaked but I don't see that yet.

[kbadeau]

So when does Petra get to leave the house and what is the first place she will go to? 😊

We almost hit 100F yesterday so if the virus doesn’t like hot weather Arizona is in good shape.

[colettelewis]

Petra wrote: 

"UK media were talking of having peaked but I don't see that yet."

Nor do I, and their news programs are interesting. They do not mention the new cases. The UK is now just behind Germany in the number of cases (and in a very short space of time), with well over three times the number of deaths. They are not manipulating the figures exactly, just not revealing the full story. 

[colettelewis]

---

Kelly B wrote:
So when does Petra get to leave the house and what is the first place she will go to? 😊

We almost hit 100F yesterday so if the virus doesn’t like hot weather Arizona is in good shape.

_____________________________________

---

I don't know if it is the weather or not - or perhaps because it is less populated (?) but Arizona does not seem to be as affected as many other states - not the best - but not way up either. One of the first Covid-19 cases to be recorded in America was in Arizona on January 26, in Maricopa County, which also has the highest number of cases  in Arizona. The state also seems to record a higher number of deaths of people between the ages of 21 and 44 than the over 60s, which is not usually the case. 

[kbadeau]

---

Nichola L wrote:

---

Kelly B wrote:
So when does Petra get to leave the house and what is the first place she will go to? 😊

We almost hit 100F yesterday so if the virus doesn’t like hot weather Arizona is in good shape.

_____________________________________

---

I don't know if it is the weather or not - or perhaps because it is less populated (?) but Arizona does not seem to be as affected as many other states - not the best - but not way up either. One of the first Covid-19 cases to be recorded in America was in Arizona on January 26, in Maricopa County, which also has the highest number of cases  in Arizona. The state also seems to record a higher number of deaths of people between the ages of 21 and 44 than the over 60s, which is not usually the case. 

---

Our case in Maricopa county was actually a student who I believe was from Wuhan or at least had just returned from there. My county is in relatively good shape, but we had a bridge tournament that caused a cluster, and our nursing homes are being hit hard. But Navajo Nation, which fills our NE corner and also parts of Utah and New Mexico, has been hit hard in terms of cases. Deaths so far look remarkably low though.

[petra_r]

---

Nichola L wrote:

Petra wrote: 

"UK media were talking of having peaked but I don't see that yet."

Nor do I, and their news programs are interesting. They do not mention the new cases. The UK is now just behind Germany in the number of cases (and in a very short space of time), with well over three times the number of deaths. They are not manipulating the figures exactly, just not revealing the full story. 

---

The key is "testing!"

If you test more, you find more cases. If you test less, you find less cases.

Germany have tested nearly 25,000 people per 1 Million population

The UK have tested nearly 10,000 people per 1 Million population

So essentially, 2.5 times as many people tested means far more cases identified means far more people can be treated and isolated and far less people die.

That's (at least partly) why the German curve looks like it does, and the UK's doesn't.

What we've learned is that early lockdown and massive testing leads to everything returning to a form of normality most quickly.

Look at New Zealand: 26,000 tests per Million population. Peaked quickly, curve went down rapidly, minimal deaths (4 per Million population, compared to 167 in the USA, 496 in Spain, 441 in Italy, 350 in France, 305 in the UK and 71 in Germany) Obviously all those numbers will still go up and more steeply for those countries whose outbreaks came later on the timeline, but it literally screams "test and lockdown really early"

If you look at the "deaths per million" for the UK, New Zealand and Germany, it looks like this:

[boshoffirene]

Testing per million in my neck of the woods has not been too great, to be honest. Our numbers are relatively low as a result. 

But we have a problem: flu season starts any day soon. No idea how that will impact our figures. And Irene and la familia are all still in lockdown. Because the front garden, i.e. original veggie garden, is now taken over by ye olde chickens (small area - I don't mind if they dig it all up so long as they leave my rose bushes alone) I've now resorted to building raised veggie beds in the back. The problem is my garden is quite tropical out back with loads of shade. Plus it's the dogs' area. So....Started the process of building raised beds in the only little sunny area there. The first one is completed and planted with beans, onions, carrots, and aubergines. If it was not for the stormy weather experienced the last few days (causing damage to the old carport/chicken coop) the second would have been built and I would have started filling it up with the branches and leaves all piled in a heap out back. I practice a sort of huglekultur that works brilliantly.

[petra_r]

Yesterday was the first day in ages I forgot to check the Italian numbers at 6.30 pm.... 

Anyway. Active cases per Million time.

I've had to take the UK out because their curve was misleading. I've been wondering why they were talking about having peaked when their curves looked nothing like it, and couldn't understand it. Then I noticed how everyone else reports recovered people, and the UK does not, so theiy curve was simply total cases minus deaths, and it no longer made sense to include here.

Everyone bar USA on a downward trend. Germany has been doing particularly well.

[abinadab-agbo]

---

Petra R wrote:

IMPORTANT UPDATE! Fresh off the press!

Spoiler

---

We all hope there will be no more graphs to share soon.

But, looking back, would you deem yourself to be a Covidholic or not?

[abinadab-agbo]

Whoever first wrote this on the internet nailed it. Literally.

« 

1. Basically, you can’t leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.

2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.

3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.

4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.

5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.

6. Gloves won’t help, but they can still help.

7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it’s important to GO OUT.

8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.

9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.

10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…

11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick. without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my..

12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand and it’s better not to go out, well, but no…

13. It’s better to get some fresh air, but you get looked at very wrong when you get some fresh air, and most importantly, you don’t go to parks or walk. But don’t sit down, except that you can do that now if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).

14. You can’t go to retirement homes, but you have to take care of the elderly and bring food and medication.

15. If you are sick, you can’t go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.

16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn’t wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too?

17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview must start with " I don’t want to trigger panic, but…"

18. You can’t see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.

19. You can walk around with a friend but not with your family if they don’t live under the same roof.

20. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn’t say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.

22. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick. person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.

23. We count the number of deaths but we don’t know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that’s what they will die of

24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications).

25. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but we must no longer be locked up for that?

»

[m_sharman]

I don't know who wrote it, but Adley did a video, which was amazing..

https://www.instagram.com/p/B_p1QKRD4Pu/

[petra_r]

I am no longer doing daily graphs as they don't change so much from day to say, but as much of Europe has already or is about to start lifting restrictions, watching the curves will become more interesting again to see how successfully countries are containing the situation.

The European countries in my sample have all reached the peak and have been on the way down for a while, especially Germany. Interesting how it started much sooner in Italy than in Germany, but Germany was able to bend the curve so much earlier.

The USA has not reached the peak.

Deaths per Million as per Our World In Data

Oh and same thing with Scandinavia....

So much for "Be like Sweden..."

[mwiggenhorn]

We are very, very slowly reopening in Mississippi.  Big spike in the numbers, apparently due to an outbreak at a nuclear power plant in the north part of the state (89 cases) as well as consistent testing, at least in my area. The governor is basically leaving a lot of details up to the individual counties and the counties are trusting the mayors to do the appropriate things for their people.  I get a daily update from our mayor and things are pretty okay.  Restaurants only have pick-up, non-casino hotels can open, stores open for 50% capacity, masks required and sanitation stations at the door.  Casinos and casino hotels closed until at least the end of May. Every shopper must sign their name, phone number and the date and time of their visit in case tracking becomes necessary.  Elective surgery is slowly returning. I'm pretty proud of our little town.  I haven't been out since March 18.  Getting old...

[kbadeau]

Sweden looks terrible compared to
Scandinavia; I believe the nether lands is also not great, but they’re both much lower than Italy, Spain, and France on the deaths per million graphs?

[petra_r]

---

Kelly B wrote:
Sweden looks terrible compared to
Scandinavia; I believe the nether lands is also not great, but they’re both much lower than Italy, Spain, and France on the deaths per million graphs?

---

They are, but in fairness Italy and Spain and France came so early in the curve and could not possibly have known what was to come until it was too late, and then made mistakes which may or may not have been avoidable.

Back then it all didn't look so scary. There was only China to go on and the Chinese numbers didn't look that scary. I have to admit that I am pretty certain that the Chinese numbers were underestimated and or underreported greatly.

Other countries looked on in horror what happened in Italy and then Spain, and after first believing that it could not POSSIBLY happen in their country, and despite those in Italy (including myself) constantly screaming "WATCH THE ITALIAN CURVE" - some didn't or simply thought it "couldn't happen here" and are now paying the price. I will never forget the abject horror I felt when I saw the pictures of the Cheltenham Festival when Britain was still playing "Let's go for herd immunity."

The Netherlands are now playing on the numbers that could have died had they done nothing at all and are keeping stumm about the deaths that would (not "could") have been avoided had they done a bit more.

Also "deaths per Million" obviously look worse for those countries that started earlier, because more people have had more time to die. The overall deaths won't make sense until it's all over or as good as.

The Netherlands were also lucky that their outbreak didn't become more significant until it was already warmer whereas the main spread in Italy and Spain happened when it was still properly winter.

There was a clear correlation here in Italy: days with very low temperatures being followed by days with a sharp rise in infected people.

Hindsight is such a luxury... 

[kbadeau]

Gotcha. I didn’t think about how long it has been for Italy vs Sweden.

I hope that the hindsight will at least come in handy for one of the future waves.

Have you gone out yet? 🙂

[petra_r]

---

Kelly B wrote:
Have you gone out yet? 🙂

---

Only for my nightly strolls around the olive grove with the dog.

I tried to sneak down to the beach (a mere 5 minutes walk away) with the camera at 5 am the other morning for some sunrise photos but there was a policecar blocking the path so turned back again.

I have become a master in online shopping though! 

[sjbercot]

Just wanted to say I've really appreciated your graphs Petra, even if they aren't daily anymore. They're some of the clearest and simplest I've seen. As US states start their "re-openings" (my ex home included) I kind of sit here in shock with my jaw on the floor.

[petra_r]

---

Sarah B wrote:

Just wanted to say I've really appreciated your graphs Petra, even if they aren't daily anymore. 

---

Thank you Sarah 🙂

---

Sarah B wrote:

As US states start their "re-openings" (my ex home included) I kind of sit here in shock with my jaw on the floor.

---

Yes.

(I wrote several additional paragraphs but decided not to post them and deleted them. Those who know me know what they said.)

[feed_my_eyes]

---

Petra R wrote:

---

Sarah B wrote:

As US states start their "re-openings" (my ex home included) I kind of sit here in shock with my jaw on the floor.

---

Yes.

(I wrote several additional paragraphs but decided not to post them and deleted them. Those who know me know what they said.)

---

There are many factors affecting the spread of the virus, like overcrowded living conditions, availability of health care, obesity and smoking levels, the average age of the population, air quality etc. But overall, I don't know how anyone can ignore the fact that countries that imposed lockdowns early (and strictly enforced them), have suffered less than countries that didn't. Restrictions can be gradually eased under the right conditions, and closely monitored, but I don't understand the rush to re-open businesses like tattoo parlours and nail salons, where social distancing - the most important thing that prevents spread - is impossible. (Oh, and I can't fathom why anyone would even think about setting foot in a gym again until there's a vaccine; you may as well take a cruise, while you're at it.)

There have been protests staged by people who demand to have their communities re-opened, so maybe there should be more protests by people like this guy:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/02/florida-grim-reaper-beach-video-coronavirus

[abinadab-agbo]

---

Christine A wrote:

---

There are many factors affecting the spread of the virus, like overcrowded living conditions, availability of health care, obesity and smoking levels, the average age of the population, air quality etc.

Did anybody get disturbed by the narrative that countries with women leaders did better?

I thought that was a very skewed thing to say.

No offence to the women though.

They did great.

But, there are a whole lot of factors that contributed to the success (and failure) of some countries beyond the gender of their leader.

[petra_r]

---

Abinadab A wrote:

Did anybody get disturbed by the narrative that countries with women leaders did better?

---

I hear you but.... it's not as simple as that.

Fact is that considering how few countries are led by women, most of the ones who emerged as clear winners in this are led by women. That is more than just a statistical anomaly.

On the surface, it would be a sexist statement, but we have to scratch beneath the surface.

As far as I am concerned that does not mean that women are better at leading countries in a crisis, and it's not actually even about that. It might just mean that countries that are open to the possibility of electing a female head of state may (!) have the demographic climate to pull together and work towards a successful outcome in something so monumental. So it's not necessarily the gender of the head of state, but the demographic and collective attitude that did it.

The same collective attitude that makes a female head of state possible, makes a successful war on the virus possible.

I also wonder if a country that is open to electing a female head of state is also inherently less willing to directly trade lives for points on the stock market.

We can't get away from the fact that heavy testing, contact tracing and isolating of infected people, along with an early and decisive lockdown not only saves lives, but also means that reopening can be done faster and sooner, so not only are countless lives saved, but the economy is affected much less.

Look at New Zealand.

I rest my case.

[abinadab-agbo]

This was Mark Humphries' tribute to all our fellow armchair epidemiologists. 

During the coronavirus, we rocked.

[feed_my_eyes]

---

Abinadab A wrote:

---

Did anybody get disturbed by the narrative that countries with women leaders did better?

---

No, I wasn't disturbed by that.

[petra_r]

---

Christine A wrote:

---

Abinadab A wrote:

---

Did anybody get disturbed by the narrative that countries with women leaders did better?

---

No, I wasn't disturbed by that.

---

Or particularly surprised, I assume?

By the way, "narrative" would indicate a "spin."

It isn't. Only 21 countries in the world have a female leader.

Funny how they all have a very low deaths per million people rate (less than 82)... Of those, only Germany and Denmark are at over 40 deaths per Million population.

[richard_wein]

Maybe countries with open-minded,  pragmatic populations are better at dealing with crises and also more likely to elect female leaders. Hence the correlation.  Just a thought.

[petra_r]

---

Richard W wrote:

Maybe countries with open-minded,  pragmatic populations are better at dealing with crises and also more likely to elect female leaders. Hence the correlation.  Just a thought.

---

That's what I was trying to say above but you said it so much more succinctly 😉

Friend just sent me this lol (The "clapping" is a reference to how the Brits come out of their houses every Thursday evening applauding the Health Professionals)

[abinadab-agbo]

---

Petra R wrote:

---

The same collective attitude that makes a female head of state possible, makes a successful war on the virus possible...

I find this explanation more plausible.

However, it isn't what the few articles I read kept trying to say during that time.

Eg. this one kept giving the impression that women leaders had fewer ego problems and hence made more rational decisions. I don't know how someone expects me to think that chimes right?

Others kept saying world leaders should meet her for a masterclass, etc.

Things like that.

[abinadab-agbo]

---

Petra R wrote:

The "clapping" is a reference to how the Brits come out of their houses every Thursday evening applauding the Health Professionals)

This virus might well have changed the History of applause forever.

Before corona, clapping was beginning to look like something not for sophisticated people.

It was falling out of fashion fast.

[feed_my_eyes]

---

Abinadab A wrote:

---

Petra R wrote:

---

The same collective attitude that makes a female head of state possible, makes a successful war on the virus possible...

I find this explanation more plausible.

However, it isn't what the few articles I read kept trying to say during that time.

Eg. this one kept giving the impression that women leaders had fewer ego problems and hence made more rational decisions. I don't know how someone expects me to think that chimes right?

Others kept saying world leaders should meet her for a masterclass, etc.

Things like that.

---

Sorry that you were disturbed by a "few" articles. Would you like me to send you links to the bajillions of op ed pieces that say women make terrible leaders because they're too emotional, too indecisive, too weak, lacking in leadership qualities? Will that make you feel better?

I'll stop there at the risk of being moderated for being too political. This argument doesn't belong in this thread.

[abinadab-agbo]

---

Christine A wrote:

---

---

Would you like me to send you links to the bajillions of op ed pieces that say women make terrible leaders because they're too emotional, too indecisive, too weak, lacking in leadership qualities?

---

No.

---

---

Will that make you feel better?

No.

[petra_r]

In all fairness, there is no point pretending that men and women are the same or have the same qualities or strengths.

Fact is that this is a situation that has lent itself to achieving a positive outcome for countries with the mindset that allowed them to choose a female leader and the personalities they elected, which aren't even remotely similar except for their gender.

And let's play nicely, please, yes? No need to get all prickly and force the mods to wade in.

Thanks.

[luce-neidert]

---

Petra R wrote:

In all fairness, there is no point pretending that men and women are the same or have the same qualities or strengths.

Fact is that this is a situation that has lent itself to achieving a positive outcome for countries with the mindset that allowed them to choose a female leader and the personalities they elected, which aren't even remotely similar except for their gender.

And let's play nicely, please, yes? No need to get all prickly and force the mods to wade in.

Thanks.

---

Petra, I'm so impressed by seing that women leaders did well during this crisis, let's not pretend we haven't noticed! I'm so happy and proud about it!

Anyway, what I really wan't to know is when YOU are going to end your lockdown, now that Italians are allowed to do so (yes, I know, you're not Italian).

[petra_r]

---

Luce N wrote:

---

Anyway, what I really wan't to know is when YOU are going to end your lockdown, now that Italians are allowed to do so

Not all Italian are allowed out.

We are still on lockdown.

When will I go out again?

When my favourite restaurant reopens

Prosecco